隨著2018年年底籠罩在市場(chǎng)上空的幾片烏云逐漸消散，今年一季度，美國(guó)多數(shù)個(gè)股全線反彈，在上周五收盤后，美股終于走完了近十年來(lái)最揚(yáng)眉吐氣的一個(gè)季度。

標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)在上周五收于2834.40點(diǎn)，當(dāng)日上漲0.7%，今年一季度的漲幅達(dá)到13.1%。這也是自2009年三季度起，美股從全球金融危機(jī)中緩慢復(fù)蘇以來(lái)，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)表現(xiàn)最好的一個(gè)季度。同時(shí)它也是1998年以來(lái)，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)表現(xiàn)最堅(jiān)挺的一個(gè)季度。

與此同時(shí)，據(jù)雅虎財(cái)經(jīng)報(bào)道，今年第一季度，道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)上升了11.2%，納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)上漲了16.5%。

和歷次股市反彈一樣，今年一季度，小盤股的表現(xiàn)要好于大盤股，小盤股的漲幅超過(guò)了20%，而大盤股的漲幅也達(dá)到了13%。在標(biāo)普500指數(shù)中，表現(xiàn)最好的行業(yè)分別是信息技術(shù)（上漲18.2%）、房地產(chǎn)（上漲16.8%）和能源行業(yè)（上漲15.6%）。醫(yī)療（上漲4.9%）和金融行業(yè)（上漲7.6%）則未能跑贏總體市場(chǎng)。

在標(biāo)普500的大盤股中，漲幅最大的個(gè)股主要集中在芯片行業(yè)，如賽靈思、AMD和英偉達(dá)分別上漲了50%、43%和35%。處于轉(zhuǎn)型階段的通用電氣上漲了42%， Netflix上漲了39%。在中盤股中，美容用品Coty上漲了81%，Chipotle Mexican Grill上漲了69%，施樂(lè)上漲了63%。

當(dāng)然，也不是所有股票都有這樣好的運(yùn)氣。由于收益狀況不佳，又下調(diào)了分紅，卡夫亨氏的股價(jià)大跌25%。制藥企業(yè)百健的股價(jià)下跌了21%。在亞馬遜等電商的擠壓下，梅西百貨的股價(jià)下跌了19%，藥品零售商CVS Health也下跌了18%。

今年一季度的大漲，也在很大程度上抵消了上季度的股市大跌。去年下半年，由于有跡象表明美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)2019年將持續(xù)加息，加之中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)愈演愈烈，道指從2018年10月3日到12月24日下跌了18.8%。這種恐慌性清倉(cāng)導(dǎo)致去年第四季度美國(guó)股民總共損失了4.6萬(wàn)億美元。

從今年1月起，籠罩在美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融市場(chǎng)上的陰云逐漸消散，中美針?shù)h相對(duì)的緊張局面有所緩解，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在3月也放出信息，暗示今年不太可能加息。這些利好消息，加上市場(chǎng)意識(shí)到去年年底的股災(zāi)屬于反應(yīng)過(guò)激，共同推動(dòng)了本輪美股的大漲。

Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management公司的CEO菲爾·布蘭卡托表示：“去年12月股市的非理性波動(dòng)，完全是由年度稅務(wù)賣壓效應(yīng)、算法以及股民對(duì)新聞事件的極度情緒化反應(yīng)推動(dòng)的?！?/p>

布蘭卡托認(rèn)為，這也說(shuō)明美股此次的強(qiáng)勢(shì)復(fù)蘇不會(huì)持續(xù)太久。“在這樣的環(huán)境下，經(jīng)濟(jì)還沒(méi)有強(qiáng)勁到可以使股市實(shí)現(xiàn)12%的回報(bào)率。”（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

U.S. stocks finished their best quarter in nearly a decade on last Friday, as several clouds hanging over the financial markets at the end of 2018 dissipated enough to prompt a strong rebound for most shares.

The S&P 500 closed last Friday at 2834.40, up 0.7% on the day and up 13.1% for the first quarter of 2019. It marked the strongest quarter for the benchmark stock index since the third-quarter of 2019, when stocks were recovering in the wake of a global financial crisis that led to the Great Recession. It was also the best first-quarter for the index since 1998.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, meanwhile, rose 11.2% in the first quarter, while the Nasdaq gained 16.5%, according to Yahoo Finance.

As often happens with stock rebounds, smaller-cap stocks outperformed the broader market, with micro-cap stocks gaining more than 20% and large-cap stocks rising 13%. Among the S&P 500’s sectors, information technology (+18.2%), real estate (+16.8%), and energy (+15.6%) performed the best, while health care (+4.9%) and financials (+7.6%) underperformed the overall market.

Among large-cap stocks in the S&P 500, some of the strongest gains were seen by chipmakers such as Xilinx, AMD, and Nvidia, up 50%, 43%, and 35%, respectively. General Electric, which is undergoing a turnaround, gained 42%, while Netflix advanced 39%. Among mid-caps, beauty-supply company Coty rose 81%, Chipotle Mexican Grill gained 69%, and Xerox rose 63%.

Not all stocks enjoyed the broad-based rebound in the quarter. Kraft Heinz declined 25% after slashing dividends in the wake of disappointing earnings, while drugmaker Biogen fell 21%. Macy’s dropped 19% and CVS Health fell 18% as large retail chains continue to struggle in the era of Amazon and e-commerce.

2019’s first quarter erased most of the losses posted during the previous quarter. The Dow slumped 18.8% between Oct. 3 and Dec. 24 of 2018, amid signs that the Federal Reserve would continue to raise interest rates through 2019 and the threat of a looming U.S.-China trade war. That dramatic selloff cause American households to lose a collective $4.6 trillion in the value of their stock holdings during the fourth quarter.

Starting in January, the clouds that hung over the economy and the financial markets began to clear up, with trade tensions between China and the U.S. easing somewhat and the Fed signaling March it’s unlikely to raise rates at all this year. Those developments, coupled with a sense that the late-2018 selloff had been overdone, powered this quarter’s rebound.

“The irrational moment of December was just that, a moment driven by tax selling, algorithms and people being extremely emotional about the headlines,” said Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management.

For Blancato, that serves as a warning that the rally may not last much longer. “The economy is not strong enough to drive a 12% return on the stock market in an environment like this.”