由于高盛集團警告稱通用電氣（GE）陷入困境的金融子公司可能面臨“尾部風(fēng)險”，GE的股價將出現(xiàn)2007-2009年大衰退以來的最大單月跌幅。

高盛的分析師喬·里奇在報告中指出，全面回顧GE季報后，問題依然多于答案，特別是在GE金融（GE Capital）可能遇到新困難的情況下。

目前困擾GE投資者的兩大關(guān)鍵問題是GE金融需要注入多少資本，以及GE能源業(yè)務(wù)是否已接近底部。高盛認(rèn)為GE對GE金融進(jìn)行權(quán)益投資的數(shù)額可能超過此前就2019年預(yù)估的30億美元。

里奇在上周五稱，高盛認(rèn)為“GE并不便宜，原因包括其負(fù)債情況……以及和GE金融相關(guān)的尾部風(fēng)險”。他同時將GE的目標(biāo)價從12美元大幅下調(diào)至9美元。紐約時間上周五12:55，GE跌幅達(dá)5.4%，正在逼近2009年3月以來的最低點。

自從今年年初以來，GE的股價已下跌50%以上，而過去一個月的滑落勢頭尤為迅猛——本月初至今的跌幅達(dá)22%。按這樣的速度推斷，11月可能成為2009年2月重挫30%以后GE走勢最差的一個月。10月底，GE披露說聯(lián)邦機構(gòu)擴大了對該公司賬目調(diào)查的范圍，分析師則警告稱流動性顧慮可能不斷加重，而且GE步履艱難的能源和金融業(yè)務(wù)的業(yè)績可能會繼續(xù)惡化。

美銀美林的分析師安德魯·奧賓在報告中認(rèn)為，GE“在修復(fù)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表方面有很長的路要走，同時基于一些事件出現(xiàn)的時間，GE可能要通過權(quán)益投資為GE金融注入逾100億美元”。但給予GE“中性”評級的奧賓說，GE仍有多種手段來應(yīng)付債務(wù)，包括資產(chǎn)變現(xiàn)。

奧賓認(rèn)為，除了外界擔(dān)憂，GE股價最近暴跌更多的是因為“信心，基本面的作用則沒有那么大”。

美銀美林還指出：“……GE的估值在一定程度上體現(xiàn)了‘對未知的恐懼’，原因是它的負(fù)債率不太高，能消化任何新出現(xiàn)的不利消息，而華爾街在過去一年中已經(jīng)遭遇過多次負(fù)面意外。”（財富中文網(wǎng)）

General Electric shares tumbled toward their worst month since the depths of last decade’s recession after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warned of a potential “tail risk” at the troubled manufacturer’s finance arm.

A thorough review of GE’s 10-Q financial report still shows more questions than answers around the company, especially because GE Capital could face additional headwinds, analyst Joe Ritchie wrote in a note.

GE investors are grappling with two key questions—how big of an equity infusion GE Capital needs, and whether the Power unit business is close to a bottom. Goldman sees a chance that the equity infusion from GE to GE Capital might be larger than the $3 billion previously stated for 2019.

Goldman does not “see GE as inexpensive given its leverage profile…and tail risk associated with GE Capital,” the analyst said on last Friday, slashing the price target on the stock to $9 from $12. The stock sank as much as 5.4 percent at 12:55 p.m. in New York, on pace to close at its lowest since March 2009.

While GE shares have plunged by more than half this year, the pace of decline has been especially sharp over the past month, with the stock down 22% since the beginning of the month. At that rate, November would be the worst month for the stock since February 2009, when it fell 30%. The company disclosed an expanded federal accounting probe in late October, and analysts have warned about escalating liquidity concerns, as well as deteriorating results at GE’s troubled power division and financial business.

GE “has a long road to repair its balance sheet ahead of it, and based on the timing of certain events, GE could potentially have to put more than $10 billion of equity into GE Capital,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Andrew Obin wrote in a note. But Obin, who rates GE a neutral, said the company still has a number of levers to meet the liabilities, including monetizing its assets.

Concerns aside, the recent plight of GE shares is driven more by “sentiment, not as much fundamentals,” Obin said.

“… GE’s valuation partly reflects the ‘fear of unknown’, as the company’s balance sheet is thinly stretched to be able to absorb any incremental bad news and the Street has gone through multiple negative surprises over the past year,” Bank of America added.