羅伯特·萊什納是專門研究利率的專家。多年來他一直在預(yù)測，美聯(lián)儲會把政策利率設(shè)定在什么水平。說得更通俗些，他是在預(yù)計，美元未來的價值。

身為訓(xùn)練有素的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，萊什納發(fā)現(xiàn)加密貨幣市場存在一個問題：不付利息。不同于法定貨幣，無論是儲蓄比特幣、以太坊，還是其他任何數(shù)字代幣，都不會收到利息。

在《財富》雜志周播節(jié)目《Balancing the Ledger》最新一期中，萊什納解釋說，發(fā)現(xiàn)問題以后的第一反應(yīng)是開了一家名叫Compound的公司，讓加密貨幣的持有者能通過持倉獲得一定比率的回報。

Compoud的投資者包括硅谷知名風(fēng)投公司安德森-霍洛維茨和美國最大加密貨幣交易平臺Coinbase旗下的風(fēng)投機(jī)構(gòu)Coinbase Ventures等。目前該公司僅提供四種相對小眾的代幣交易，但計劃很快添加其他的加密貨幣，包括所謂的穩(wěn)定幣（stable coin）。穩(wěn)定幣是指掛鉤美元的加密貨幣，與美元的兌換比率為1:1。

萊什納認(rèn)為，穩(wěn)定幣之所以能成為當(dāng)前的熱點，主要是因為相對容易創(chuàng)造，而且投資者渴望買入。他同時敏銳地指出，穩(wěn)定幣對發(fā)行方來說也是筆大買賣。賣家基本上是以零利率提供貸款，往往還要為啟動穩(wěn)定幣支付交易費(fèi)。

因此，無怪乎越來越多加密貨幣領(lǐng)域的公司推出了穩(wěn)定幣，比如持比特幣獲得億萬身家的文克萊沃斯兄弟旗下交易所Gemini推出了Gemini Coin，還有“美版支付寶”Circle和Coinbase共同支持的USD Coin。萊什納預(yù)計，市面上的穩(wěn)定幣可能很快會超過50種互相競爭，令人不由想起美元歷史上的一幕：19世紀(jì)曾有幾十家銀行推出各自版本的美元。

美聯(lián)儲會不會推出數(shù)字版本的美元，即很多人猜測的所謂Fed Coin，終止這場穩(wěn)定幣的混戰(zhàn)？萊什納認(rèn)為，要等美聯(lián)儲出手還要很久，可能會出現(xiàn)加密貨幣公司為更多法定貨幣推出相應(yīng)的代幣版本，幫Compoud之類公司吸引追逐利息的交易者和套利者。

《財富》雜志《Balancing the Ledger》節(jié)目的主持人問萊什納，鑒于現(xiàn)有的外匯市場提供了巨大的貨幣市場，且提供了海量流動性，貨幣數(shù)字化是否真有必要。他回答說，數(shù)字版本的法定貨幣具有一些優(yōu)勢，其中之一便是能與依托區(qū)塊鏈的智能合約相互作用。

“代幣化的優(yōu)勢在于，提升貨幣的透明度和易編程性。”萊什納表示，“當(dāng)美元向區(qū)塊鏈敞開懷抱，創(chuàng)新程度就可以大幅提升。”

雖然萊什納對貨幣代幣化前景很樂觀，但他對很多加密貨幣比較懷疑，可能只是曇花一現(xiàn)。而且他預(yù)計，美聯(lián)儲的一系列加息將加密貨幣市場造成壓力。

“加密貨幣的實際利率上一直為零，即便有也處于低位。由于貨幣環(huán)境寬松，市場的資本非常充裕，尋求可能的收益機(jī)會?！比R什納說，“我們終于開始進(jìn)入利率不斷上升的環(huán)境，這是加密貨幣未曾經(jīng)歷的情況。利率走高可能對眾多加密資產(chǎn)形成挑戰(zhàn)，對股票等一般資產(chǎn)也一樣?！?/p>

換言之，雖然比特幣等基于區(qū)塊鏈的貨幣基本上都在當(dāng)前的金融系統(tǒng)之外，但是和其他資產(chǎn)一樣，各種數(shù)字貨幣可能也會受到美聯(lián)儲決策的影響。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Pessy

審校：夏林

Robert Leshner is an interest rates guy. He’s spent years predicting what rate the Federal Reserve will set and, more generally, what the future value of money should be.

An economist by training, Leshner sees a problem with the cryptocurrency markets—namely, it doesn’t pay any interest. Unlike fiat currencies, no one will pay you to store your Bitcoin, Ethereum or other digital tokens.

As Leshner explained on the latest episode of Balancing the Ledger, his response was to start a company called Compound, which lets cryptocurrency owners park their digital tokens in exchange for a rate of return.

Compound, whose backers include Andreessen Horowitz and Coinbase Ventures, is currently listing only four lesser known tokens but plans to add others soon, including a so-called stable coin. Stable coins are cryptocurrencies pegged to the U.S. dollar on a 1-to-1 basis.

In Leshner’s view, stable coins are a hot item right now because they are easy to create and crypto investors are eager to buy them. But he shrewdly points out that stable coins are also a great deal for those who issue them—the buyers are basically lending them money at zero interest, and often paying transaction fees to boot.

No wonder, then, that more and more crypto companies are offering stable coins, including the Winkelvoss brothers’ Gemini Coin, and USD Coin, which is supported by Circle and Coinbase. Leshner predicts there may soon be more than 50 stable coins competing in the market—a situation reminiscent of U.S. money in the 19th century when dozens of banks offered their own version of the dollar.

Could the Federal Reserve soon put a stop to this by issuing a digital version of the dollar— what many dub a Fed Coin? Leshner thinks this day is far off and, for now, we’re likely to see crypto companies offering token versions of more fiat currencies, which will in turn attract traders and arbitragers to the likes of Compound in search of interest.

We asked Leshner if all of this really necessary, given that there is already an enormous and liquid market for currencies in existing foreign exchange market. He argues there are upsides to digital versions of fiat currencies, including their ability to interact with blockchain-based smart contracts.

“The advantage of tokenization is it brings transparency and programability to currency.” he said. “When dollars are open to blockchain there’s so much more innovation that can occur. ”

While he is optimistic about tokenized currencies, Leshner is skeptical of many cryptocurrencies, which he likens to vapor-ware. He also thinks that a series of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve will begin to weigh on the crypto markets.

“We’ve always known crypto in an environment of essentially zero or low interest rates. And that’s an environment of easy and loose money where capital has been prolific and looking for returns wherever it was found.” he said. “We’re finally starting to enter an environment of rising interest rates which crypto has never seen before and it’s going to be potentially challenging to the price of a lot of crypto assets just like it will be for a lot assets in general, including equities.”

In other words, Bitcoin and other blockchain-based currencies—which were invented in large part as a form of money outside of the existing financial system—may find themselves exposed to the decisions of the Federal Reserve in much the same way as other assets.