美國(guó)總統(tǒng)特朗普即興的推特言論往往會(huì)引發(fā)股市（和投資者心率）的波動(dòng)。不過(guò)在最近的一條推文中，他提出了改革證券市場(chǎng)的建議。許多資金經(jīng)理認(rèn)為這一改革可能意義重大。

今年8月，特朗普通過(guò)推文發(fā)表了一項(xiàng)令人驚訝的聲明，表示他已經(jīng)要求美國(guó)證券與交易委員會(huì)（Securities and Exchange Commission）進(jìn)行研究，取消上市公司刊發(fā)季度報(bào)告的規(guī)定，改用半年報(bào)代替。特朗普認(rèn)為此舉有助于降低公司成本，不過(guò)一些投資者喜歡它另有原因：它可以抑制那些影響研發(fā)，長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看損害投資者利益的短視行為。

按照法律，一旦公司上市，就有義務(wù)每個(gè)季度公開詳細(xì)的財(cái)務(wù)信息。分析師和股東會(huì)專心分析這些報(bào)告，并用它來(lái)診斷公司狀況。許多公司還會(huì)提供“業(yè)績(jī)指引”，即預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)的收益情況。如果公司沒能達(dá)到指標(biāo)，股價(jià)往往就會(huì)下跌。

在批評(píng)者看來(lái)，這就是麻煩的開始。

對(duì)一些公司而言，達(dá)成季度預(yù)測(cè)來(lái)提振股價(jià)的重要性開始超過(guò)長(zhǎng)期規(guī)劃，這促使他們采取一些伎倆，例如使用成本低廉的短期手段（如股票回購(gòu)）或自毀式地節(jié)約成本（包括削減研發(fā)經(jīng)費(fèi)等）。

這些做法反過(guò)來(lái)又會(huì)導(dǎo)致業(yè)績(jī)下滑。南加利福尼亞大學(xué)（University of Southern California）的會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)教授K.R.·蘇布拉馬尼亞姆最近以“熱衷發(fā)布業(yè)績(jī)指引的公司”為主題，對(duì)近2,000家公司進(jìn)行了評(píng)估，這些都是在各行業(yè)內(nèi)發(fā)布業(yè)績(jī)指引最為頻繁的公司。那些比同行更多地達(dá)成季度預(yù)測(cè)，卻在研發(fā)上投入更少的公司，長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看收入的增長(zhǎng)率都較低。

這類數(shù)據(jù)促使由摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）的首席執(zhí)行官杰米·戴蒙擔(dān)任主席的游說(shuō)組織Business Roundtable在今年夏天聯(lián)合沃倫·巴菲特，呼吁公司降低發(fā)布業(yè)績(jī)指引的頻率?？偨y(tǒng)的提議又在減少業(yè)績(jī)報(bào)告本身上更進(jìn)一步。

并非人人都認(rèn)為投資者能從這類變革中獲益。包括蘇布拉馬尼亞姆在內(nèi)的一些觀察家相信，即使證監(jiān)會(huì)放寬了報(bào)告的要求，許多公司依舊會(huì)繼續(xù)沉迷于發(fā)布業(yè)績(jī)指引。他們還認(rèn)為，如果財(cái)報(bào)縮減到一年兩次，收益數(shù)據(jù)將會(huì)引發(fā)更大的股價(jià)波動(dòng)。

PRESIDENT TRUMP’S IMPROMPTU Twitter musings often move stock markets (along with investors’ heart rates). But in one recent tweet, the President proposed a reform of those markets—one that some money managers see as a potentially important improvement.

In August, Trump made a surprise announcement via tweet that he had asked the Securities and Exchange Commission to consider reducing the required number of financial reporting periods for public companies from four a year to two. Trump cast the proposal as a money-saver for companies, but some investors like it for a different reason: It could discourage the kind of short-term thinking that undercuts research and development and hurts shareholders in the long run.

Once a company goes public, it’s legally obligated to release detailed financial information every quarter. Analysts and shareholders study these reports intently, using them as a stethoscope to track the corporate heartbeat. Many companies also provide “guidance,” or estimates of how earnings will fare in the future, and when a company misses those marks, the stock often suffers.

That, in the eyes of critics, is where the trouble begins.

For some companies, meeting quarterly estimates to bolster share prices begins to outweigh long-term planning, encouraging maneuvers that range from cheap short-term tricks (like stock buybacks) to self-destructive cuts—including reductions in R&D spending.

Those choices, in turn, can lead to weaker results. K.R. Subramanyam, an accounting professor at the University of Southern California, recently evaluated nearly 2,000 companies, focusing on “dedicated guiders,” those within each industry that issued guidance most frequently. Those companies met quarterly goals more often than their peers but also invested less in R&D—and generated lower earnings growth over the long term.

Data like this helped move the Business Roundtable, the lobbying group chaired by JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, to join with Warren Buffett this summer in urging companies to provide guidance less frequently. The President’s proposal would go a step further by reducing the reports themselves.

Not everyone agrees that such changes would benefit investors. Some observers, including Subramanyam, believe that many companies would keep playing the guidance game even if reporting requirements were eased. They also argue that stock prices would exhibit more volatility around earnings announcements if those reports happened only twice a year.

不過(guò)，一些股東的確有可能獲益?！皟?yōu)質(zhì)”公司，即那些管理穩(wěn)定、收支健康、表現(xiàn)歷來(lái)可靠的公司，他們的股票可能上漲，因?yàn)榧词构芾韺右欢螘r(shí)間內(nèi)“寂靜無(wú)聲”，投資者也會(huì)信賴他們。而獲益最大的可能是那些市場(chǎng)上的實(shí)驗(yàn)室狂人——那些將大量預(yù)算用于研發(fā)的公司。畢竟，在任何時(shí)候，你都可以看到投資者不耐煩導(dǎo)致股價(jià)下滑的情況，因?yàn)楣绢I(lǐng)導(dǎo)層的長(zhǎng)期計(jì)劃正在影響短期收益。

目前有三大研發(fā)巨頭屬于這類情況。隨著公司的研發(fā)投入得到回報(bào)，股價(jià)也會(huì)出現(xiàn)反彈。（沒錯(cuò)，無(wú)論財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告的政策是否變更。）

以透明膠帶和便利貼聞名的工業(yè)巨頭3M在研發(fā)上投入的經(jīng)費(fèi)達(dá)到了總收入的6%，是業(yè)內(nèi)平均水平的兩倍。晨星（Morningstar）預(yù)測(cè)他們研發(fā)投入的每一美元最終將產(chǎn)生9美元的利潤(rùn)。然而，這一預(yù)測(cè)無(wú)益于提振3M的股價(jià)，公司的股價(jià)在過(guò)去六個(gè)月里下跌了13%。3M還因?yàn)橹袊?guó)市場(chǎng)智能手機(jī)購(gòu)買量的增速放緩受到了拖累，因?yàn)椴捎盟麄児鈱W(xué)薄膜（用于設(shè)備保護(hù)層）的電子設(shè)備銷量有所減少。而汽車行業(yè)不景氣，也導(dǎo)致他們的汽車護(hù)理產(chǎn)品線受損。不過(guò)RBC的分析師迪恩·德雷表示，3M的問(wèn)題與執(zhí)行力無(wú)關(guān)，公司的股價(jià)有理由高于行業(yè)整體水平。

降低匯報(bào)頻率，也會(huì)讓轉(zhuǎn)型期的公司受益。福特汽車（Ford Motor）就是個(gè)很好的例子，普華永道（PwC）認(rèn)為它是汽車業(yè)研發(fā)投入最多的公司之一。該公司與硅谷展開了合作，大力研發(fā)無(wú)人駕駛汽車。他們計(jì)劃推出新的探險(xiǎn)者（Exloprer）SUV和重新發(fā)布的撼路者（Bronco）SUV系列，但目前這些令人翹首以盼的跨界新品還沒有一款上市。不過(guò)晨星的分析師大衛(wèi)·韋斯頓表示，如果公司的努力最終轉(zhuǎn)化為成果，并削減其他開支，“股價(jià)就被低估了?！备Ｌ毓蓛r(jià)的反彈可能需要一段時(shí)間，不過(guò)投資者的等待會(huì)得到回報(bào)，該公司的股息率如今達(dá)到了6.4%。

旅游技術(shù)公司Expedia Group有45%的收入都來(lái)自美國(guó)本土以外。為了增加這一份額，公司在影響力有限的地區(qū)大力投入營(yíng)銷和發(fā)展。Wedbush的分析師詹姆斯·哈迪曼表示，尤其是在歐洲，該公司大大落后于旅游網(wǎng)站Priceline和Kayak的所有者Booking Holdings。投資者對(duì)Expedia打造市場(chǎng)的做法心存疑慮，該公司的股價(jià)去年也下跌了10%，不過(guò)隨著更多細(xì)節(jié)得到披露，股價(jià)也有所好轉(zhuǎn)。若公司在歐洲大獲成功，投資者的情緒長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看也會(huì)變得樂觀。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

本文的另一個(gè)版本登載于《財(cái)富》雜志2018年10月1日刊，題為“獲得更高回報(bào)的規(guī)則”。

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Still, some shareholders would probably benefit. Stocks of “higher quality” companies—those with stable management, healthy balance sheets, and track records of solid performance—would likely get a boost, since investors would trust them even if management “went quiet” for a while. And the biggest beneficiaries might be the market’s lab geeks—companies that devote a high percentage of their budget to R&D. After all, at any given time, you can find stocks that are getting clobbered by impatient investors because company leaders’ long-term plans are hurting short-term earnings.

Here are three R&D big spenders that are currently caught in that bind, and whose stocks could rebound as their research investments pay off. (That’s true, whether or not reporting rules change.)

The industrial giant 3M, famed for Scotch tape and Post-its, invests 6% of revenues in R&D—about double the level of the average industrial firm. Morningstar estimates that each of those dollars eventually generates $9 of profit. Still, that forecast hasn’t been enough to boost 3M’s stock, which is down 13% over the past six months. The company has also suffered from a slowdown in smartphone purchases in China, which has hurt sales of electronics that sport its optical film (used as protective covers on the devices), and the auto-sector slump has nicked its car-care product line. Still, 3M’s problems have nothing to do with execution, says RBC analyst Deane Dray, who says the stock deserves to trade at a premium to its peers.

Less frequent reporting could also benefit companies in mid-turnaround. Ford Motor, which PwC identifies as one of the auto industry’s largest R&D spenders, is a prime example. Ford has made big commitments to autonomous-vehicle research, putting it on a collision course with Silicon Valley. And it hasn’t yet launched a long-awaited revitalized product mix, which will include a new Explorer SUV and a relaunched Bronco SUV series. But if those efforts pan out, and Ford reduces other expenses, “the stock is undervalued,” says Morningstar analyst David Whiston. The rebound will likely take a while, but investors will get paid to wait; the stock’s dividend yield now stands at 6.4%.

Travel-tech company Expedia Group gets 45% of its revenue outside the U.S. To boost that share, it’s spending heavily on marketing and development in regions where its presence is limited—particularly Europe, where it lags Booking Holdings, owner of travel sites like Priceline and Kayak, by a significant margin, notes Wedbush analyst James Hardiman. Investors have been skeptical of the market-building, driving shares down 10% over the past year, but they’ve warmed up as more details have emerged. A big success in Europe could lift their mood in the long run.

A version of this article appears in the October 1, 2018 issue of Fortune with the headline “A Formula For Better Returns.”