去年毫無疑問是比特幣大放異彩的一年，隨著人們對數(shù)字加密貨幣的興趣呈現(xiàn)井噴，比特幣的幣值也暴漲到了無以復(fù)加的地步。借著比特幣的東風(fēng)，一些投機(jī)者也大膽地投資起了所謂的“ICO”項(xiàng)目。ICO又稱首次代幣發(fā)售，目前各國對ICO的監(jiān)管力度尚不算強(qiáng)，很多公司都通過發(fā)售自己的數(shù)字加密貨幣來進(jìn)行融資。

作為《財(cái)富》的記者，我們對雨后春筍般涌現(xiàn)的ICO項(xiàng)目往往抱著好奇且有幾分懷疑的態(tài)度，因?yàn)镮CO從一開始就帶著幾分欺詐的意味。事實(shí)證明，我們的懷疑并不是沒有道理的。據(jù)數(shù)字加密貨幣新聞網(wǎng)站Bitcoin.com對去年的ICO項(xiàng)目的調(diào)查顯示，在TokenData公司追蹤的902個(gè)ICO項(xiàng)目中，有142個(gè)項(xiàng)目在融資前就失敗了，還有276個(gè)項(xiàng)目也在融資后宣告失敗。

這樣算來，去年ICO項(xiàng)目的失敗率達(dá)到了46%，然而這還不算完。Bitcoin.com指出，還有另外113個(gè)項(xiàng)目處于“半失敗”狀態(tài)，要么是他們的團(tuán)隊(duì)失去了聯(lián)系，要么是他們的社區(qū)已經(jīng)半死不活。加上這113個(gè)“半失敗”的，失敗率就上升到了59%。Bitcoin.com，2017年，這些失敗的ICO項(xiàng)目總共獲得了2.33億美元的融資。

2個(gè)多億美元就這樣打了水漂。不過對于熟悉創(chuàng)業(yè)界的人來說，2個(gè)億也不見得是多大的損失。要知道，傳統(tǒng)風(fēng)投注資的創(chuàng)業(yè)公司里有75%都失敗了，其中有30%到40%更是敗光了投資者的所有投資，令投資人血本無歸。在美國所有新成立的公司里，第一年就失敗的比例也超過了20%。

雖說ICO項(xiàng)目失敗的比例遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出了這個(gè)數(shù)字，但對于一個(gè)新生的領(lǐng)域來說，這個(gè)幅度也不算太夸張。但此次調(diào)查暴露出的兩個(gè)問題還是值得擔(dān)心的。

首先，2017年的ICO熱潮其實(shí)是從下半年才開始升溫的，也就是說，在短短幾個(gè)月的時(shí)間里，就有大量的ICO項(xiàng)目迅速失敗了。其次，并非所有關(guān)閉的項(xiàng)目都是真正的“失敗”了——很多做ICO的公司甚至沒有生產(chǎn)過任何產(chǎn)品，有不少公司甚至可能壓根沒有過這個(gè)打算，一些騙子公司的創(chuàng)始人直接卷款跑路。還有一些公司“慢慢地淡化在人們的視野中”，但他們的初衷無非也是“騙一把就跑”罷了。

在分析了這些原始數(shù)據(jù)后，Bitcoin.com仔細(xì)搜尋了這些失敗的ICO項(xiàng)目留下的“遺跡”，找到的只有一個(gè)個(gè)“數(shù)字墳?zāi)埂?，要么是不再更新的推特賬戶，要么是空無一人的社交群組，要么是沒人管理的網(wǎng)站或社區(qū)?？傊?，說ICO已死并不客觀，但如果你想投資ICO項(xiàng)目，最好先把這一幕深深印在腦海里。更重要的是，一定要提前做做功課。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

Last year was without a doubt the Year of Bitcoin, as exploding interest in cryptocurrency fueled a massive market runup. As if that wasn’t enough excitement, some speculators took the further leap to investing in cryptocurrency projects through a lightly regulated process called an “ICO,” or initial coin offering, in which a startup sells its own crypto token to raise money.

We here at Fortune have cast a curious but frequently skeptical eye on ICOs, which from the get-go were ripe for scams. It turns out that skepticism was well warranted: cryptocurrency news site Bitcoin.com has surveyed last year’s ICOs and found that of 902 tracked by TokenData, 142 failed before raising funding, and another 276 failed after fundraising.

That’s a 46% failure rate — but wait, there’s more. Bitcoin.com found another 113 projects that it calls “semi-failed,” because their teams have gone off the radar or their community has withered away. Add those, and the failure rate jumps to 59%. Bitcoin.com says the total funding of failed projects from 2017 was $233 million.

That’s a lot of wasted money, though the failure rate might not seem outrageous for those familiar with startups. As many as 75% of all startups backed by traditional venture funding fail, and 30 to 40% of those take all of investors’ capital with them. Out of all new companies started in the U.S., a little over 20% fail in their first year.

The ICO numbers obviously beat that percentage soundly, which again, might not seem surprising in such a nascent sector. But the findings are especially disturbing for at least two other reasons.

First of all, since 2017’s ICO mania didn’t fully take hold until the second half of the year, a disproportionate number of ICO failures have unfolded in a matter of months. And second, not all of the shuttered projects are actual ‘failures’ — many produced no product at all, and a good number probably never intended to. Some were simply “exit scams” whose founders disappeared with the money they raised — while others, in Bitcoin.com’s words, “slowly faded into obscurity,” but with the same nefarious intent.

On top of crunching the raw numbers, Bitcoin.com took the time to sift through the digital remains of all those broken promises. What they found was bleak: “a digital graveyard” of “abandoned Twitter accounts, empty Telegram groups, websites no longer hosted, and communities no longer tended.” ICOs aren’t going away, but if you’re tempted to invest in one, hold that image in your mind — and, more importantly, do your homework.