巴菲特警告:看似安全的債券或許暗藏危機
有時最好的經(jīng)驗值得反復重申。 身價億萬的投資家沃倫·巴菲特星期六發(fā)布了眾所矚目的致伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)股東年度信。他再次指出,把錢花在資本經(jīng)營者收取的手續(xù)費上是一種浪費。他特別指出債權(quán)的風險性,并強調(diào)堅守簡單的投資策略至關(guān)重要,遠勝于追逐收益。 “業(yè)績有好有壞,”巴菲特寫道:“但手續(xù)費永遠不變?!? 今年的信明顯短于往年。作為伯克希爾的董事長兼首席執(zhí)行官,他在信中闡釋了人們應(yīng)當從他和Protege Partners所做的慈善賭約中應(yīng)當獲取的投資經(jīng)驗。巴菲特跟這家資產(chǎn)管理公司進行對賭,后者挑選了一組它認為未來十年業(yè)績能夠超過標普500指數(shù)的對沖基金。12月31日,賭約到期,指數(shù)基金輕松獲勝。 巴菲特鼓勵投資者們堅持投資股票,即使股票短期內(nèi)風險較高。 “對于那些投資養(yǎng)老基金,大學受捐贈基金和儲蓄基金等的長期投資者來說,以投資組合中債券與股票的比率來衡量其投資‘風險’可謂大錯特錯,”巴菲特寫道:“很多時候,投資組合中的優(yōu)質(zhì)債券風險也相應(yīng)較高?!? 他在信中以較大篇幅闡述了伯克希爾2017年的業(yè)績,近期美國稅改讓公司獲得巨大收益,不過這家總部位于內(nèi)布拉斯加州奧馬哈市的大型企業(yè)在保險業(yè)務(wù)上出現(xiàn)了罕見的承保虧損。 他還討論了尋找大規(guī)模收購所面臨的挑戰(zhàn)。伯克希爾的現(xiàn)金儲備充裕,可巴菲特表示,他去年意欲收購的大多數(shù)企業(yè)都過于昂貴。這位87歲的投資家一再重申,盡管他“感覺比任何時候都好”,但公司確實正在尋找繼任者。 “我們的董事知道我的推薦人選,”他寫道:“所有候選人目前都在伯克希爾工作,或者可以加入伯克希爾,我對他們都充滿信心?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng)) 譯者:嚴匡正? |
Sometimes the best lessons are worth repeating. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett used his widely-read annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway Inc. shareholders on Saturday to again call out the wasteful fees that many money managers charge. He highlighted the risk of bonds and emphasized the importance of sticking with a simple investment strategy, rather than chasing returns. “Performance comes, performance goes,” Buffett wrote. “Fees never falter.” The letter, which was notably shorter than in years past, meditated on the investing lessons that the Berkshire chairman and chief executive officer thinks people should take away from his charitable bet against Protege Partners. Buffett challenged the asset manager to pick a group of hedge funds that it thought would beat an S&P 500 Index fund over 10 years. When the wager concluded on Dec. 31, the index fund had won easily. Buffett urged investors to stick with stocks even though they can be riskier in the short-term. “It is a terrible mistake for investors with long-term horizons — among them, pension funds, college endowments and savings-minded individuals — to measure their investment ‘risk’ by their portfolio’s ratio of bonds to stocks,” Buffett wrote. “Often, high-grade bonds in an investment portfolio increase its risk.” He also spent much of the letter explaining Berkshire’s results for 2017, which were aided by a huge gain on the recent U.S. tax overhaul. The Omaha, Nebraska-based conglomerate’s insurance businesses, however, posted a rare underwriting loss. He also discussed some of the challenges to finding large acquisitions. Cash has been piling up at Berkshire, but Buffett said most of the businesses he looked to buy last year were too expensive. The 87-year old reiterated that while he’s “never felt better,” the company has a succession plan in the works. “Our directors know my recommendations,” he wrote. “All candidates currently work for or are available to Berkshire and are people in whom I have total confidence.” |