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不是金融股!特朗普當(dāng)選后這些股票才是最大贏家

不是金融股!特朗普當(dāng)選后這些股票才是最大贏家

Lucinda Shen 2017-11-15
所謂“特朗普沖擊”既沒(méi)能提振疲軟的油價(jià),也沒(méi)法緩解來(lái)自電商更激烈的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)實(shí)體店的沖擊。

一年前,唐納德·特朗普贏得大選出任美國(guó)總統(tǒng),投資者也開(kāi)始押注,在奉行貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義的共和黨政府領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下哪些個(gè)股會(huì)是最大贏家。

投資者認(rèn)定,既然特朗普承諾要“拯救”美國(guó)煤炭行業(yè),能源企業(yè)定會(huì)受益。由于預(yù)期特朗普會(huì)增加基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施方面的支出,鋼鐵生產(chǎn)商股價(jià)大幅走高。同時(shí),因?yàn)樘乩势罩С謴U除金融監(jiān)管法《多德-弗蘭克法案》,高盛之類(lèi)金融巨頭發(fā)展空間可能增大。另一方面,投資者擔(dān)心硅谷會(huì)因?yàn)樘乩势諗M推出的限制移民和反自由貿(mào)易政策而受打擊。

那么,在特朗普當(dāng)選之初做的這些預(yù)測(cè)之中,哪些料中了?哪些個(gè)股買(mǎi)對(duì)了?

一年后事實(shí)證明,押注英偉達(dá)之類(lèi)半導(dǎo)體制造商的投資者收獲頗豐。

特朗普當(dāng)選以來(lái),標(biāo)普500指數(shù)累計(jì)上漲21%,而標(biāo)普半導(dǎo)體精選行業(yè)指數(shù)同期漲幅超過(guò)41%,該指數(shù)追蹤芯片制造企業(yè),其產(chǎn)品廣泛用于手機(jī)、電腦、游戲顯卡和人工智能技術(shù)等。如下圖所示,特朗普當(dāng)選后表現(xiàn)最佳的九只個(gè)股之中,有四只都來(lái)自半導(dǎo)體板塊,分別是應(yīng)用材料公司 、泛林集團(tuán)、 美光科技和英偉達(dá)。

幾家歡樂(lè)幾家愁。特朗普當(dāng)選后表現(xiàn)最差的個(gè)股是能源公司和零售商,因?yàn)樗^“特朗普沖擊”既沒(méi)能提振疲軟的油價(jià),也沒(méi)法緩解來(lái)自電商更激烈的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)實(shí)體店的沖擊。

特朗普當(dāng)選一年來(lái),美國(guó)運(yùn)動(dòng)裝生產(chǎn)商安德瑪股價(jià)暴跌61%,跌幅在一眾下挫個(gè)股中幅度最大。不過(guò)其股價(jià)重挫基本和白宮發(fā)布的政策無(wú)關(guān),問(wèn)題應(yīng)該是消費(fèi)者對(duì)“運(yùn)動(dòng)休閑”的興趣大為降低。

美國(guó)大選以來(lái),美股大贏家和大輸家座次已經(jīng)改變。雖然某種程度上跟白宮關(guān)系不大,但并不代表之前的“特朗普交易”已經(jīng)崩盤(pán)。追蹤金融業(yè)個(gè)股表現(xiàn)的指數(shù)標(biāo)普500金融指數(shù)大選以來(lái)漲了32%。

同時(shí),由于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景向好,總體來(lái)看投資者收益尚可。以標(biāo)普500指數(shù)來(lái)看,特朗普當(dāng)選以來(lái)美股累計(jì)漲幅達(dá)21%。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Pessy

審稿:夏林

In the days following then-nominee Donald Trump’s election a year ago today, investors placed their bets on the biggest winners under a Republican-led, protectionist leadership team.

Those investors decided energy companies would win under Trump’s promise to “save” the country’s coal industry. Steel makers soared on hopes of infrastructure spending. Meanwhile, financial giants like Goldman Sachs (GS, +0.57%) were expected to get a breather from the president-elect’s stance on deregulating Dodd-Frank. On the downside, investors worried that Silicon Valley would come in for a whipping once Trump enacted his anti-immigration and anti-trade policies.

So who got it right in the early days of president-elect Trump? Which were the best stocks to buy?

Well, as it turns out a year later, investors who bet big on semiconductor makers such as Nvidia (NVDA, -1.39%).

While the S&P 500 has gained 21% since Trump’s election, the S&P Semiconductor Select Industry Index, which tracks companies that make chips used in everything from cell phones and computers to gaming graphics cards and artificial intelligence technology, has gained over 41%. Notably, four of the nine companies in our chart (below) of best performing stocks since Trump’s election are in the semiconductor sector. They are Applied Materials (AMAT, +0.81%), LAM Research (LRCX, +0.98%), Micron Technology (MU, +0.57%), and Nvidia.

On the flip side, the worst stocks to buy since the Trump election are energy companies and retailers, as the “Trump bump” has not been able to stave off weak oil prices and or save physical stores from increased competition from e-commerce.

Athletics apparel maker Under Armour (UAA, +0.76%) leads the crowd of biggest stock market losers in Trump’s first year, having fallen 61% on issues largely independent of the White House’s influence. The trouble for Under Armour it seems is dying interest in “athleisure.”

Still, while the stock market’s biggest winners and losers have shifted since the election, and to an extent, decoupled from actions in the White House, that’s not to say early “Trump trades” were a bust. An index tracking the stock performance of financial companies, the S&P 500 Financials Index, has risen 32% since the elections.

Meanwhile, investors in general have benefited from a rosier global economic outlook. The stock market as measured by the S&P 500 has risen 21% since Trump’s election.

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