美國(guó)要如何應(yīng)對(duì)全球日益騷動(dòng)的局勢(shì)？對(duì)這一問(wèn)題不確定性并未影響沃倫·巴菲特對(duì)美國(guó)長(zhǎng)期——甚至未來(lái)100年前景的樂(lè)觀態(tài)度。

這位伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司的董事長(zhǎng)在上周四晚表示：“每當(dāng)我聽(tīng)到人們看衰這個(gè)國(guó)家時(shí)，都覺(jué)得他們瘋了?！?/p>

在紐約當(dāng)晚慶?！陡２妓埂冯s志100周年華誕的活動(dòng)上，巴菲特發(fā)表了講話(huà)。他也成為了雜志紀(jì)念全球百位最偉大在世“商業(yè)思想家”特刊的封面人物。

1965年起，在這位億萬(wàn)富翁的帶領(lǐng)下，伯克希爾從一家失敗的紡織公司變成了一家旗下?lián)碛谐^(guò)90家企業(yè)的大型集團(tuán)，其業(yè)務(wù)范圍涉及保險(xiǎn)、鐵路、能源和零售等，市值超過(guò)千萬(wàn)美元。

巴菲特稱(chēng)，他認(rèn)為道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)會(huì)在未來(lái)100年內(nèi)“超過(guò)100萬(wàn)點(diǎn)”，而上周二收盤(pán)時(shí)，指數(shù)只有22,370.80。他表示，考慮到一個(gè)世紀(jì)以前指數(shù)僅有大約81點(diǎn)，這并非不切實(shí)際。

不過(guò)他知道自己等不到那一天了。

他說(shuō)：“當(dāng)我聽(tīng)到關(guān)于活到100歲的討論時(shí)，感到很興奮。我87歲了?！?/p>

巴菲特表示，他最近發(fā)現(xiàn)，美國(guó)100歲以上老人共有53,364人，其中女性和男性的比例接近5:1。

他說(shuō)：“我們應(yīng)該考慮調(diào)整性別比例”，引發(fā)了滿(mǎn)堂大笑。

盡管如此，他表示長(zhǎng)期投資仍然還有很長(zhǎng)的路要走。

巴菲特指出，《福布斯》1982年首次公布美國(guó)富人400強(qiáng)的榜單（當(dāng)時(shí)巴菲特的身家只有2.5億美元）以來(lái)，上榜者大約有1,500人。

他們有一個(gè)共同點(diǎn)。

他說(shuō)：“你在其中看不到買(mǎi)空型投資者?！彼傅氖悄切┱J(rèn)為股價(jià)會(huì)下跌的人。

巴菲特表示：“托馬斯·杰弗森寫(xiě)下《獨(dú)立宣言》（Declaration of Independence）241年來(lái)，看空美國(guó)一直都是失敗者的游戲。我可以預(yù)測(cè)，未來(lái)也依然如此?！?/p>

《福布斯》的百大商業(yè)思想家榜單中有各種背景的人士。

上榜者包括微軟的共同創(chuàng)始人比爾·蓋茨，亞馬遜的創(chuàng)始人杰夫·貝佐斯，F(xiàn)acebook的馬克·扎克伯格和雪莉·桑德伯格，諾貝爾和平獎(jiǎng)的獲得者穆罕默德·尤納斯，建筑師弗蘭克·蓋里，媒體名人奧普拉·溫弗瑞和歌手博諾和保羅·麥卡特尼。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

Uncertainty about how the United States will cope with growing tumult in the world has not dampened Warren Buffett's optimism for the country's prospects over the long term — even 100 years into the future.

"Whenever I hear people talk pessimistically about this country, I think they're out of their mind," Buffett, the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc (brk.a, -0.34%), said on Tuesday night.

Buffett spoke in New York at an event celebrating the 100th anniversary of Forbes magazine, and is on the cover of an issue featuring 100 of the world's greatest living "business minds."

The billionaire has transformed Berkshire since 1965 from a failing textile company into a conglomerate with more than 90 businesses in such sectors as insurance, railroads, energy and retail, and well over $100 billion of stocks.

Buffett said he expects the Dow Jones Industrial Average to be "over 1 million" in 100 years, up from Tuesday's close of 22,370.80. He said that's not unreasonable, given how the index was roughly 81 a century ago.

But he knows he won't be around to see it happen.

"When I hear talking about making it to 100, I get excited," he said. "I'm 87."

Buffett said he recently determined that of the 53,364 people in the United States who were at least 100 years old, the ratio of women to men was nearly 5-to-1.

"We should start thinking about a sex change," Buffett said, prompting laughter.

Nonetheless, he said long-term investing remains the way to go.

He noted that since Forbes created its first list of the 400 richest Americans in 1982 -- Buffett was worth just $250 million then -- some 1,500 different people have been included.

All with one thing in common.

"You don't see any short sellers," he said, referring to people who bet stock prices will fall.

"It has been 241 years since Thomas Jefferson wrote the Declaration of Independence," he said. "Being short America has been a loser's game. I predict to you it will continue to be a loser's game."

Forbes' list of top business minds included people with a variety of backgrounds.

Among them were Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, Amazon.com founder Jeff Bezos, Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg and Sheryl Sandberg, Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus, architect Frank Gehry, media mogul Oprah Winfrey, and singers Bono and Paul McCartney.