目前，比特幣處在了關(guān)鍵的節(jié)點(diǎn)。美國(guó)證券交易委員會(huì)即將公布一項(xiàng)決定，它可能會(huì)對(duì)一大批新資本敞開大門，改變?cè)S多投資者對(duì)于數(shù)字貨幣的看法。

美國(guó)證交會(huì)做出這項(xiàng)決定用了三年多的時(shí)間，結(jié)果最晚將于本周五公布。下文將用通俗易懂的語言闡述未來會(huì)發(fā)生什么，這項(xiàng)決定為何如此重要，又將對(duì)比特幣的價(jià)格產(chǎn)生怎樣的影響。

證交會(huì)要做出什么決定？

證交會(huì)需要決定BATS是否可以調(diào)整規(guī)定讓比特幣為標(biāo)的的交易所交易基金（exchange traded fund，ETF）上市，它可以讓人們像購(gòu)買普通股票一樣購(gòu)買比特幣。該ETF名為Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust ETF，它由文克萊沃斯兄弟創(chuàng)立。他們?cè)?jīng)與馬克?扎克伯格爭(zhēng)奪過Facebook的控制權(quán)，如今擁有大量比特幣。

為什么這次ETF如此重要？

關(guān)鍵在于流動(dòng)性。盡管購(gòu)買比特幣的渠道有很多，但許多投資基金只能持有符合某些監(jiān)管標(biāo)準(zhǔn)（例如獲得證交會(huì)許可）的資產(chǎn)。如果證交會(huì)通過比特幣ETF，希望在投資組合中加入比特幣的資金經(jīng)理就可能參與進(jìn)來。與此同時(shí)，數(shù)百萬普通人也能通過這種簡(jiǎn)單的新方式購(gòu)買數(shù)字貨幣。以下這段話選自比特幣分析網(wǎng)站BitMex，我找不到更好的語言來描述這一利好了：

如果證交會(huì)批準(zhǔn)BATS調(diào)整規(guī)定，美國(guó)形形色色的散戶都能通過受到監(jiān)管的ETF參與投資比特幣。能交易比特幣的合規(guī)資金將迅速增長(zhǎng)。許多人預(yù)測(cè)過流入比特幣的資金數(shù)額?？偠灾?，這個(gè)量是巨大的。

我們什么時(shí)候，在哪里能看到?jīng)Q定？

證交會(huì)必須在3月11日以前做出決定，11日是周六。也就是說周四或周五就能得知結(jié)果。

據(jù)法律公司Alston & Bird的可替代資產(chǎn)專家布萊克?艾斯蒂斯介紹，結(jié)果將會(huì)發(fā)布在證交會(huì)的網(wǎng)站，所有人都可以看到。

證交會(huì)通過的概率有多大？

五五開。相信證交會(huì)會(huì)通過ETF的人認(rèn)為，文克萊沃斯的律師非常高明，而且較之兩年前，比特幣現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)更加主流。如今，包括監(jiān)管者在內(nèi)，了解比特幣及其機(jī)制的人已經(jīng)多了許多。人們也能感覺到比特幣ETF只是遲早的事情。

另一方面，悲觀主義者認(rèn)為兩大問題可能導(dǎo)致證交會(huì)拒絕提案。首先是文克萊沃斯準(zhǔn)備如何操作。ETF將使用文克萊沃斯控制的公司來發(fā)掘和儲(chǔ)存支撐股價(jià)的比特幣，這讓許多人感到不安。另一點(diǎn)擔(dān)心在于比特幣本身。這種數(shù)字貨幣的價(jià)格波動(dòng)巨大，部分原因在于比特幣搶劫和內(nèi)部人員的噱頭。艾斯蒂斯稱，證交會(huì)可能擔(dān)心通過ETF會(huì)導(dǎo)致新人涌入催生比特幣泡沫，而這種泡沫將會(huì)炸裂。

艾斯蒂斯表示：“一些人害怕這會(huì)給比特幣持有者找到讓傻瓜接盤的好機(jī)會(huì)?！?/p>

它將對(duì)比特幣的價(jià)格產(chǎn)生怎樣的影響？

比特幣正在經(jīng)歷又一次猛漲，接近了每單位1,300美元的歷史新高——比一盎司的黃金更貴。這其中可能反映出投資者對(duì)于證交會(huì)通過ETF的樂觀，這個(gè)價(jià)格已經(jīng)部分體現(xiàn)了未來價(jià)格的上漲。雖然如此，仍有普遍觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為如果證交會(huì)大開綠燈，比特幣的價(jià)格短期內(nèi)還將瘋狂上揚(yáng)。

如果證交會(huì)否決了提案，對(duì)比特幣將會(huì)產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響，不過可能不會(huì)太大。原因在于，另有兩個(gè)比特幣ETF上市的申請(qǐng)已經(jīng)提交。其中一個(gè)是巴里?希爾伯特申請(qǐng)的Bitcoin Investment Trust，他是數(shù)字貨幣領(lǐng)域的知名人物。另一個(gè)是SolidX，在確保比特幣資產(chǎn)安全上表現(xiàn)突出。

正如上文所說，人們普遍認(rèn)為，通過某種形式的比特幣ETF是遲早的事，因此證交會(huì)就算駁回文克萊沃斯的提案，也只是比特幣的一次暫時(shí)的挫敗。

我應(yīng)該買比特幣嗎？

這件事只有你自己可以決定，而且最好是在大量調(diào)研之后。如今，許多人都把比特幣看作投資組合中的一種可選資產(chǎn)。不過比特幣的價(jià)格波動(dòng)很大，也有嚴(yán)重下跌的傾向，所以如果你傾向于規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，那它可能不適合你。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

Bitcoin is at a critical juncture. Any time now, the Securities and Exchange Commission will issue a decision that could throw open the door to a flood of new capital, and change how many investors regard the digital currency.

The SEC's bitcoin decision, which is over three years in the making, is due by Friday. Here's a plain English guide to what might happen, including why the decision is so important and how it could affect the price of bitcoin.

What's the SEC decision?

The agency must decide if the BATS stock exchange can change its rules to offer a bitcoin ETF (exchange traded fund), which would let people buy bitcoin like a common stock. The ETF—called the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust ETF—is the creation of the Winklevoss brothers, who once fought Mark Zuckerberg for control of Facebook, and now own a large stock of bitcoins.

Why is this ETF such a big deal?

It's all about liquidity. While there are plenty of places to buy bitcoin, many investment funds can only hold assets that meet certain regulatory standards—such as approval from the SEC. If the agency approves the ETF application, money managers who want to include bitcoin in their portfolio are likely to jump in. Meanwhile, millions of ordinary people will have an easy new way to buy the digital currency. I can't really phrase it any better than this quote from BitMex, a bitcoin analysis site:

If the SEC approves the Bats rule change, all manner of American muppet retail investors can yolo into Bitcoin via a regulated ETF. The pool of eligible money that can easily obtain exposure to Bitcoin will dramatically rise. There are various predictions about the amount of money that could flow into Bitcoin. In short, it will be Yuge.

Where and when will we see the decision?

The SEC is obliged to make the decision by March 11, which is this Saturday. That means the ruling is almost certain to come out on Thursday or Friday.

According to Blake Estes, an alternative asset expert at the law firm Alston & Bird, the decision will appear on this SEC web page, and everyone will find out at the same time.

What are the odds the SEC says yes?

People are calling this a coin toss. Those who think the SEC will approve the ETF point to the skillful work carried out by the Winklevoss lawyers, and to the fact that bitcoin is far more mainstream than it was even two years ago. Today, many more people—including regulators—are familiar with digital currency and how it works. There is also a sense that a bitcoin ETF is sooner or later inevitable.

Pessimists, on the other hand, can point to two sets of concerns that could lead the SEC to give the thumbs down. The first of these relates to how the Winklevoss intend to run the operation. Some people are uneasy that the proposed ETF would use Winklevoss-controlled businesses to source and store the bitcoins that would back the shares. The other set of concerns lie with bitcoin itself. The digital currency has been subject to wild price fluctuations, driven in part by heists and insider antics. According to Estes, the SEC may worry the agency's approval of an ETF could lead to a bubble inflated by bitcoin novices—a bubble that could then pop.

"Some fear it could be a g ood opportunity for legacy players to find the next sucker to take it off their hands," said Estes.

How will this effect the price?

Bitcoin has been on another tear of late, nudging a record of $1,300 per unit—more than an ounce of gold. Some of this likely reflects investor optimism the SEC will approve the ETF, meaning a future price rise is partly baked-in. Nonetheless, there are broad expectations the short term price of bitcoin will go crazy if the SEC says yes.

If the SEC says no, it will have a negative effect, though probably not a very dramatic one. The reason is there are two other ETF application before the agency. One is called the Bitcoin Investment Trust, and was developed by Barry Silbert, a well known figure in the digital currency world. The other, called SolidX, is distinct in that proposes to insure its bitcoin assets.

As noted above, there is a general feeling that approval for a bitcoin ETF of one type or another is inevitable, and so a rebuff by the SEC to the Winkelvoss proposal would only be a temporary setback.

Should I buy bitcoin?

That's something only you can decide—preferably after a lot of research. Today, many people see bitcoin as another alternative asset class to add to a diversified portfolio. But bitcoin has an extremely volatile history, and has been prone to spectacular crashes, so if you're averse to risk, it's probably not for you.