唐納德·特朗普在推特上發(fā)表大利空言論敲打洛克希德－馬丁的F-35戰(zhàn)斗機前，該公司的股價就已經(jīng)開始滑落。

上周一上午8:26，特朗普在推特上說洛克希德的“F-35項目及成本已經(jīng)失控”，指的就是這家國防承包商和政府的軍備合同。

然而，彼時洛克希德－馬丁的股價已經(jīng)跌了1美元左右，造成指責內(nèi)幕交易的聲音四起——有人說，特朗普曾暗示某些人他的下一篇推文將以哪家公司為目標。要不然，投資者怎么會知道在特朗普發(fā)推特前賣掉洛克希德的股票呢？他的這篇推文最終造成洛克希德下跌近2.5%。

實際情況表明，推特不僅是了解這位當選總統(tǒng)最新想法的地方，它還是預測特朗普下篇推文內(nèi)容，進而推斷哪些股票可能下跌的利器。同時，雖然許多投資者都在特朗普發(fā)推后賣掉了洛克希德，但對沖基金拋售這只股票的速度可能是最快的。

對沖基金正越來越多地使用Dataminr和Social Market Analytics等公司的分析，目的是在源源不斷的推文以及其他社交媒體帖子中發(fā)現(xiàn)隱藏的交易信號。舉例來說，繁德公司的客戶可以把Social Market Analytics基于社交媒體推導出的信心指數(shù)納入自己的股票看板，和波動幅度等傳統(tǒng)指標放在一起。

此外，諸多線索都表明唐納德·特朗普可能會噴洛克希德，而對沖基金無疑捕捉到了這一點。首先，特朗普在福斯周日新聞上做了幾乎完全相同的表態(tài)，比他發(fā)推文的時間早了整整一天。特朗普在這檔周末電視節(jié)目上說：“看看F-35項目花的錢吧，那是數(shù)千億美元，它已經(jīng)失控了?！保ㄒ韵率前l(fā)表在推特上的節(jié)目片段）

周一上午剛過8點，Social Market Analytics和彭博的推特信心指數(shù)陡然跌至零以下；8:08前后，成交量猛增58倍，這也遠早于特朗普發(fā)推的時間。

市場上如此之早地出現(xiàn)悲觀失望情緒有幾個原因。大約在8:02，幾個推特賬戶發(fā)出警告稱，Zacks Investment Research下調(diào)了洛克希德-馬丁的評級。特朗普在福斯新聞上說的話也開始在推特上流傳開來?！禔viation Week》雜志上周日發(fā)表的文章也提到了此事，并以這位當選總統(tǒng)的推文作為這篇文章的后續(xù)報道。

隨后，在8:12左右，知名媒體人、CNBC的吉姆·克萊默表示，市場似乎對這段福斯新聞熟視無睹讓他感到意外，這比特朗普的洛克希德-馬丁戰(zhàn)斗機推文早了14分鐘。克萊默在推特上寫道：“特朗普關于J-35成本‘失控’的奇怪言論未對洛克希德-馬丁造成影響”（他把F-35誤寫為J-35）。這條推特后被刪除，但有人看到了并留下了記錄。

這些推文足以在社交媒體信心探測器上觸發(fā)預警，進而通過對沖基金的算法體現(xiàn)出來。按照這些算法，當推特上的負面情緒超過某一水平時就會拋售股票。比如說，上午8:05，彭博的推特信心指標從幾分鐘前的零一下變?yōu)?0.24；而該指標再次觸及這個點位已經(jīng)是8:36，也就是特朗普就F-35發(fā)推文10分鐘后。同時，Social Market Analytics注意到它的指標從8:15開始就已跌至零以下——該公司對有關股票的在線交流打分，依據(jù)是和正常情況相比這些交流的內(nèi)容有多樂觀或多悲觀。

對一些交易員、或者計算機化的交易算法來說，看到這些信心指標急轉(zhuǎn)直下就足以讓他（/它）們賣出洛克希德-馬丁。無需等待，也無需去看特朗普會不會再發(fā)推文以及他的新推文都說些什么——就對沖基金而言，采取行動的時間越早，把市場上其他人拉下的越多，就越能賺錢。

Social Market Analytics首席執(zhí)行官喬·基茨說：“專門把推特用在金融方面的人數(shù)一直在上升。特推的預測能力真的開始成熟起來。”對沖基金已經(jīng)開始建立并監(jiān)視容易受特朗普及其他政治言論影響的個股名單，就像醫(yī)藥股因為希拉里·克林頓的推特暴跌后人們所做的那樣?；闹赋?，特朗普用推特左右市場的能力促使更多投資者采用社交媒體分析法，這進一步放大了市場對推特的反應，原因是越來越多的人開始基于這些分析作出交易決策。他說：“他對我們公司的影響好的不能再好了——請繼續(xù)發(fā)推特，總統(tǒng)先生?！?

不過，要借助特朗普的推特賺錢，不一定非要在對沖基金工作，或者可以看到專業(yè)的交易信號。最重要的征兆實際上一周前就出現(xiàn)了，當時特朗普在推特上說要“取消”制造新空軍一號的計劃，原因是這架波音飛機的“成本已經(jīng)失控”。眾人在推特上對這位當選總統(tǒng)的反應表明他還會取消洛克希德-馬丁的F-35項目——目前的預期是這個項目將耗資10億美元以上。

如果說我們對唐納德·特朗普有什么認識的話，那就是他喜歡取悅大眾。實際上，特朗普有關波音的推特發(fā)表一天后，猶他州報紙《Standard Examiner》編輯部就發(fā)表了題為《要是特朗普的下一篇推文說到F-35了怎么辦？》（What if Trump’s next tweet is about the F-35?）預測性文章，而且很快一語成讖——特朗普隨即在公眾場合對F-35提出批評，12月9日在密歇根州大急流城的集會就是一例。

特朗普的支持者對他的話大加贊賞，盡管投資新手都能預見到洛克希德-馬丁的股價會有何反應。有人在那次集會期間發(fā)推特說“真棒@realDonaldTrump要取消F-35項目了”，然后有人跟帖說：“但我不應該太高興。我手里有一些洛克希德的股票?！?

現(xiàn)在華爾街已經(jīng)開始預測，在洛克希德之后，沃爾瑪將成為特朗普的下一個目標。截至目前，沃爾瑪?shù)纳缃幻襟w信心指數(shù)仍高于零。但如果出現(xiàn)變化，預計對沖基金將在特朗普發(fā)表相關推文前將沃爾瑪?shù)墓善泵撌帧?（財富中文網(wǎng)）

作者：Jen Wieczner

譯者：Charlie

審校: 詹妮

Even before Donald Trump went on Twitter and posted his market-cratering tweet lambasting Lockheed Martin‘s F-35 fighter jets, the company’s stock was already falling.

At 8:26 a.m. on Monday, Trump tweeted that Lockheed’s “F-35 program and cost is out of control,” referring to the defense contractor’s military equipment deals with the government.

By then, though, shares of Lockheed Martin LMT -0.56% had already lost about $1, sparking accusations of insider trading—some suggested that Trump had tipped someone off about which company he would next target on Twitter TWTR 2.32% . How else could investors have known to sell Lockheed Martin before Trump’s tweet, which ultimately pushed the stock down nearly 2.5%?

It turns out, though, that Twitter is not only the place to read about the President-elect’s latest idea, it’s also a good tool for predicting what Trump will tweet about next—and what stocks are about to fall. And while many investors sold Lockheed Martin shares after Trump tweeted, hedge funds likely dumped the stock sooner.

Hedge funds are increasingly using analytics from companies like Dataminr and Social Market Analytics to uncover trading signals buried in the firehose of tweets and other social media posts. Fidelity customers, for example, can add Social Market Analytics’ sentiment indicators derived from social media to their stock dashboards, along with traditional metrics such as volatility.

And there were plenty of clues that Donald Trump was likely to attack Lockheed Martin, which hedge funds no doubt picked up on. For starters, Trump had made almost identical comments on Fox News Sunday an entire day before he tweeted them. “If you look at the F-35 program with the money, the hundreds of billions of dollars, and it’s out of control,” Trump said on the weekend television show (see clip posted on Twitter below).

Shortly after 8 a.m. on Monday, Twitter sentiment indicators from Social Market Analytics and Bloomberg suddenly spiked negative, while trading volume abruptly shot up 58-fold at about 8:08 a.m.—well before Trump’s tweet.

There were a few reasons the sentiment turned negative so early. Around 8:02 a.m., several Twitter accounts began posting alerts that Zacks Investment Research had downgraded Lockheed Martin stock. And Trump’s statements on Fox began circulating both on Twitter as well as in an article published Sunday by Aviation Week, which was later updated with the President-elect’s tweet.

Then at approximately 8:12 a.m. Monday, about 14 minutes before Trump tweeted about Lockheed Martin’s fighter jets, influential media personality Jim Cramer of CNBC expressed surprise that the market seemed to be ignoring the Fox News segment: “LMT shrugging odd ‘out of control’ cost comment on J-35 by Trump,” Cramer wrote in a tweet (which features a typo for F-35) that has since been deleted, according to people who saw and saved a record of the original tweet.

Those tweets were enough to trigger red flags among the social sentiment detectors, which in turn feed into hedge funds’ algorithms programmed to sell when Twitter negativity crossed a certain threshold. At 8:05 a.m., for example, Bloomberg’s Twitter sentiment metric jumped from 0 a few minutes earlier to -0.24; it would not reach that level again until 8:36 a.m.—10 minutes after Trump’s F-35 tweet. Meanwhile, Social Market Analytics, which scores online chatter about stocks based on how positive or negative it is compared to the norm, noticed its metrics trend negative beginning at 8:15 a.m.

For some traders—or computerized trading algorithms—just seeing those sentiment indicators head downward would be enough to sell Lockheed Martin shares. No need to wait and see if and what Trump tweets next: For hedge funds, the earlier they can act and stay farther ahead of the rest of the market, the more money they can make.

“The amount of people using Twitter specifically for finance has increased,” says Social Market Analytics CEO Joe Gits. “The predictive power of Twitter is really maturing.” Hedge funds are beginning to create and monitor lists of stocks vulnerable to Trump or other political commentary, just as some did with pharmaceutical stocks that swooned off Hillary Clinton tweets. Trump’s ability to move the market with his tweets has driven more investors to use social media analytics, adds Gits—which further amplifies the market’s reaction to tweets as even more people trade off them. “He couldn’t be any better for my business—keep tweeting away, Mr. President,” Gits says.

But you didn’t necessarily need to work at a hedge fund or have access to professional trading signals to make money from Trump’s tweet. The biggest predictor actually came a week ago, when Trump tweeted to “cancel” plans for a new Air Force One because “costs are out of control” for the Boeing BA -0.32% plane. Scores of people on Twitter responded to the President-elect suggesting that he also cancel Lockheed Martin’s F-35 program, which is now expected to cost more than $1 trillion overall.

If there’s anything we’ve learned about Donald Trump, it’s that he likes to please the crowd. Indeed, the day after the Boeing tweet, the editorial board of the Standard Examiner, a Utah news outlet, made a forecast that would soon prove true, in an article titled, “What if Trump’s next tweet is about the F-35?” Trump soon dialed up his criticism of the fighter jets during public appearances, such as at a Dec. 9 rally in Grand Rapids, Mich. last week.

Trump supporters applauded the comments—though even those who are amateur investors could foresee how Lockheed Martin’s stock price would react. “Yessss @realDonaldTrump calling out the F35 program,” one person tweeted during the rally, then followed up with a second post: “Although I shouldn’t be too happy. I got a couple shares in $lmt.”

Now, Wall Street is already predicting that after Lockheed, Walmart WMT 0.18% will be Trump’s next target. So far, Walmart’s social media sentiment remains positive. But if that changes, expect hedge funds to get out faster than Trump can tweet about it.