成人小说亚洲一区二区三区,亚洲国产精品一区二区三区,国产精品成人精品久久久,久久综合一区二区三区,精品无码av一区二区,国产一级a毛一级a看免费视频,欧洲uv免费在线区一二区,亚洲国产欧美中日韩成人综合视频,国产熟女一区二区三区五月婷小说,亚洲一区波多野结衣在线

立即打開
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息后《財(cái)富》5點(diǎn)預(yù)測(cè):從錯(cuò)誤中洞察未來

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息后《財(cái)富》5點(diǎn)預(yù)測(cè):從錯(cuò)誤中洞察未來

財(cái)富中文網(wǎng) 2016-12-15
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)如期加息,對(duì)2017年的市場(chǎng)會(huì)產(chǎn)生哪些影響,請(qǐng)看《財(cái)富》雜志的分析。

這次加息又是一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)史上最公開的秘密。

像一年前一樣,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在周三將基準(zhǔn)短期利率提升了25個(gè)基點(diǎn)。據(jù)彭博社報(bào)道,在消息公布前幾天,交易人員就把加息概率定在了100%。

在金融危機(jī)期間,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將基準(zhǔn)信貸利率一路調(diào)低到零,此后,它有過兩次加息,這是第二次。

一年前,珍妮特·耶倫領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)實(shí)行了9年來的第一次加息,《財(cái)富》雜志對(duì)于之后的股市、信貸市場(chǎng)和全球整體形勢(shì)的動(dòng)向做了一些預(yù)測(cè),結(jié)果不怎么樣。

所以在解讀加息之前,我們先得辯解一下:預(yù)測(cè)不靈不能全怪我們,甚至主要不是我們的錯(cuò)。一年前,大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為,2015年12月美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)首次加息,之后就會(huì)一發(fā)不可收拾。這個(gè)觀點(diǎn)是有歷史先例的支持的。歷史上,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)經(jīng)常在一次調(diào)息之后連續(xù)出手,并且間隔時(shí)間都很短。然而,它直到昨天才第二次加息,且今年就這一次。所以,信貸市場(chǎng)和股票市場(chǎng)的走勢(shì)跟我們的預(yù)期不一致。

雖然預(yù)測(cè)錯(cuò)誤,但是對(duì)一年前的事情做個(gè)回顧,也許能幫助我們預(yù)測(cè)對(duì)2017年甚至以后的情況。過去的一年可以很好地告訴我們,未來12個(gè)月將發(fā)生什么。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員昨天表示,明年可能加息三次。

但期貨市場(chǎng)仍然認(rèn)為明年只有兩次加息,下次要等到6月。而《財(cái)富》仍然認(rèn)為,加息的節(jié)奏會(huì)更快一點(diǎn)。我們百分之百地肯定!

下面,我們先對(duì)一年前的預(yù)測(cè)做個(gè)回顧,然后謹(jǐn)慎地預(yù)測(cè)一下明年的情況:

It was, once again, one of the worst kept secrets in economic history.

Just like it did a year ago, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday sent its key short-term interest rate up by a quarter of a percentage point. In the days before the announcement, traders had put the odds of a rate hike at 100%, according to Bloomberg data on futures markets.

It was only the second time the Fed has increased rates since the U.S. central bank dropped its key lending level all the way down to zero during the financial crisis.

A year ago, Fortune made some predictions about how the stock market, the lending market, and the world in general would change following that year’s hike, Janet Yellen & Co.’s first interest rate increase in nine years. (We also took a just-for-fun look at all the ways the world had changed since the last time rates were increased. Flip phone, anyone?)How did we do on last year’s predictions? Not great.

Before the explanation, an excuse: It wasn’t entirely our fault, or even mostly our fault, that our projections didn’t pan out. A year ago, most economists thought the Fed’s December 2015 increase would be the first of many in a row. And there was good historical precedent for that. The Fed in the past has tended to follow one interest rate move with a number in relatively quick succession. Instead, it was one and done, until today. As a result, lending markets and the stock market didn’t react like we expected them to.

Despite our errors, looking back at what happened a year ago may be able to tell us what to expect for 2017 and beyond. And this time, the past year might actually be a good predictor of what may happen in the next 12 months. On Wednesday, the Fed board members indicated that interest rates were likely to rise three times next year. But most people think the Fed will go slower than that.

Futures markets are still pointing to just two rate increases next year, with the next hike not coming until June. Once, again, we think interest rates will go up faster than that. We’re 100% sure of it.

Here’s a look back at our predictions from a year ago, and some slightly more cautious predictions for next year:

?

?

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席耶倫的這次加息完全在市場(chǎng)預(yù)料之中

利率

大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為,短期利率到2016年底會(huì)達(dá)到1.2%,但我們?cè)f,利率不會(huì)只漲這么點(diǎn),最高可達(dá)2.6%。理由是:利率上行時(shí),投資者一貫估計(jì)它的漲幅和漲速。這次顯然是我們不對(duì)。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)周三將基準(zhǔn)短期信貸利率提升到0.50%-0.75%區(qū)間,比我們預(yù)期的數(shù)字低了兩個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員說,在2017年底之前,還會(huì)有三次加息,利率至少達(dá)到1.2%。我們上面說過,市場(chǎng)對(duì)此持懷疑態(tài)度。但是,如果歷史還能說明點(diǎn)問題,明年的利率其實(shí)應(yīng)該更高一些。而且,特朗普政府計(jì)劃通過減稅和增加基建支出來刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),這也應(yīng)該推動(dòng)利率上行。不過,這里可要警告你:我們以前預(yù)測(cè)錯(cuò)過。

股票

《財(cái)富》雜志去年以為,加息的速度將快于預(yù)期,因此預(yù)測(cè)股票市場(chǎng)在2016年差得一塌糊涂。實(shí)際上并非如此。我們的根據(jù)是高盛公司的一份研究報(bào)告,里面預(yù)計(jì),在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息后的第一年,大盤最多跌10%,可實(shí)際上過去一年不但沒跌,反而有所上漲,當(dāng)然大部分漲幅是在特朗普當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)之后發(fā)生的。標(biāo)普500指數(shù)今年漲了將近11%。

去哪里投資合適?我們說過,最好押寶科技股。這個(gè)判斷非常正確??萍季x行業(yè)基金(SPDR),一個(gè)跟隨科技股走勢(shì)的交易所交易基金,在2016年漲幅超過14%。

不太正確的,是我們看多銀行股。很多市場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)略師都認(rèn)為銀行股將受益于加息,因?yàn)楦玫睦蕦⑻岣呓栀J的利潤(rùn)。我們沒有接受這一看法。歷史上,銀行股經(jīng)常在利息上漲時(shí)跑輸大盤,我們認(rèn)為,歷史會(huì)重演。事實(shí)是,銀行股今年上漲了22%。當(dāng)然,大部分漲幅也是在特朗普當(dāng)選后出現(xiàn)的,市場(chǎng)認(rèn)為,新總統(tǒng)會(huì)減少管制。一年前,幾乎有人看到這點(diǎn)。

至于2017年,加息還會(huì)對(duì)市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生影響。股票在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣布加息決定后下挫,道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)周三跌了119點(diǎn)。但好消息是,特朗普承諾采取的一些措施有可能推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),更可能提高通脹和消費(fèi)者支出。這些趨勢(shì)對(duì)股票構(gòu)成利好,尤其是零售商的股票。

While most economists thought short-term interest rates would end 2016 at 1.2%, we said rates would go much higher than that, perhaps as high as 2.6%. Our reasoning: When rates do rise, investors have historically underestimated has far and how fast they will go up. Not this time apparently. On Wednesday, the Fed raised its key short-term lending rate to a range of 0.50%-to-0.75%, or about two percentage points below where we said it would be.

The Fed members also predicted they would raise interest rates three more times to at least 1.25% by the end of 2017. Yes, markets are skeptical of that, as we mentioned above. Still, if history is any guide this time, rates will be even higher than that by this time next year. What’s more, Trump’s plans to stimulate economic growth with tax cuts and infrastructure spending should boost interest rates as well. But you’ve been warned: We’ve been wrong before.

Stocks

Since we thought interest rates would rise faster than expected, Fortune‘s prediction was that 2016 would be a pretty miserable year for stocks. It wasn’t. We cited aGoldman Sachs report that predicted stocks could fall as much as 10% in the first year after the Fed’s increase. They didn’t.

Instead, the stock market in general has been up in the past year, though much of the rally has come since Donald Trump was elected. The S&P 500 is up nearly 11% this year.

Where to invest? We said the best bet was technology stocks. And that was a good call. The Technology Select Sector SPDR, an exchange trade fund that tracks technology stocks is up just over 14% in 2016.

Less good was our call on bank stocks. A lot of market strategists were pointing to bank stocks as the sector that would benefit the most from interest rate increases, since higher interest rates would boost lending profits. We didn’t buy it. Historically, bank stocks tended to underperform when rates rise and we said they would again. In fact, bank stocks have risen nearly 22% this year. Of course, once again, a lot of that has been since Trump has been elected, on the assumption that the new president will reduce regulation, something that few people saw coming a year ago.

As for 2017, rising rates will again weigh on the market. Stocks fell after the Fed’s decision to raise rates,with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending the day down 119 points. But the good news is that Trump has promised measures that are likely to push up growth, and even more likely to boost inflation and consumer spending. Those trends would be good for stocks, particularly those of retailers.

?

????????????????????????????? 債券雖然在2016年有所上漲,但近期在快速下跌。

債券

債券價(jià)格會(huì)在利率上漲時(shí)下跌。一年前,我們認(rèn)為,債券價(jià)格歷經(jīng)多年上行之后,在2016年的表現(xiàn)可能相當(dāng)不理想。我們說過,長(zhǎng)期債券價(jià)格最多可能跌10%。和前面的預(yù)測(cè)一樣,這事又是沒有發(fā)生。

債市在2016年的表現(xiàn)的確不如股市,但也說不上太差。巴克萊銀行的美國(guó)綜合債券指數(shù)今年上漲了將近2.2%。長(zhǎng)期國(guó)債價(jià)格也上升了,但漲幅不如綜合指數(shù)。更好的投資是長(zhǎng)期企業(yè)債券,在2016年竟然上漲了5%。有誰想到了嗎?反正不是我們。

Bond prices fall when interest rates rise. A year ago, we thought that after years of gains in bond prices, 2016 could be worse than usual. We said long-term bond prices could fall as much as 10%. Once again: Didn’t happen.

?Bonds did do worse than stocks in 2016, but it was hardly a bloodbath. Overall, the Barclay’s U.S. Aggregate bond index is up nearly 2.2% this year. Long-term Treasury bonds rose, but not as much as the aggregate index. The 10-year Treasury bond is up 0.3% in 2016. The better bet was long-term corporate bonds. They are up just over 5% in 2016. Who knew? Not us.

?

??????????????????????????????? 美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)雖然加息,但銀行蓄戶幾乎沒有從中得到好處。

?

銀行賬戶

加息后,銀行儲(chǔ)戶似乎是主要受益者。一年前,人們?cè)跔?zhēng)論,銀行會(huì)不會(huì)給客戶相應(yīng)地增加利息。之前,儲(chǔ)蓄賬戶、尤其是支票帳戶的利息接近于甚至等于零,如果算上自助柜員機(jī)的費(fèi)用,實(shí)際上是負(fù)的。我們認(rèn)為,銀行之間的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)會(huì)令支票帳戶的利息有所提升。

但實(shí)際情況不是這么回事。一年后,儲(chǔ)蓄帳戶的平均利息是0.11%,支票帳戶基本沒利息。所以說,如果本周的加息沒讓你的銀行帳戶發(fā)生變化,不要感到驚訝。

When interest rates rise, savers should be among the main beneficiaries. A year ago, there was a debate going on as to whether banks would pass along interest rate increases to their customers. Interest rates on savings accounts, and especially checking accounts, had been at or close to zero, or really negative when you factor in ATM fees. We argued that competition would drive up the rates you could get on checking accounts.

But that didn’t really play out. A year later, the average rate on a savings account is 0.11%, and checking accounts still mostly pay nothing. So don’t be surprised if this week’s interest rate hike doesn’t really impact your bank account either.

?

??????????????????????????????????? 借貸利率沒有出現(xiàn)大幅上漲。

?

借貸

我們?cè)f,借款利率不會(huì)上漲太多,因?yàn)樾庞每ɡ⑴c美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)利率之間的利差已經(jīng)很大了。按揭利率是跟長(zhǎng)期利率掛鉤的,經(jīng)濟(jì)好轉(zhuǎn)時(shí)會(huì)上漲,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息時(shí)則未必。

我們的這個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)是正確的。信用卡利率和按揭利率有所上漲,但是不多。不過,信用卡利率跟美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)利率的聯(lián)系比我們預(yù)期得要大一些。有機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)計(jì),明年信用卡借款利率將再次上漲,平將每個(gè)家庭要多支付18美元的利息。

按揭利率在這一年出現(xiàn)上漲,30年固定按揭的利息由一年的3.5%上漲至目前的4.1%,漲幅不算大,但這顯示出住宅貸款對(duì)加息的敏感度明顯比我們想像的要大。因此,我們預(yù)計(jì),按揭利率在2017年多少也會(huì)上漲一些。 (財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

作者:Stephen Gandel

譯者:天逸

We said borrowing rates weren’t likely to go up all that much. The spread between credit card rates and the Fed’s interest rate was already quite large. And mortgage rates were tied to long-term interest rates, which tend to rise when the economy improves, not necessarily when the Fed increases interest rates.

This was one prediction we got right. Credit card and mortgage rates did go up, but not much. Credit card rates did turn out to be more tied to interest rates than expected. And NerdWallet predicts that credit card lending rates will go up again in the next year, with the average house hold paying around $18 more in interest a year.

Mortgage rates have jumped to to 4.1% on a 30-year fixed mortgage from 3.5% a year ago. That’s not much, but it does show that home loans are apparently more sensitive to interest rate hikes than we and others thought. So expect more increases, even if they’re modest, in 2017.

掃描二維碼下載財(cái)富APP
日韩日韩日韩日韩日韩| 久久精品久久精品中文字幕| 牲欲强的70岁熟妇农村老妇女| 久久天天躁夜夜躁狠狠85台湾| 久久精品国产99精品国产亚洲性色| 国产女人18一级毛片视频| 亚洲中文字幕无码爆乳| 国产精品无码AⅤ精品影院| CAOPORN国产精品免费视频| 亚洲国产欧美在线人成APP| 亚洲永久国产一级大片在线观看| 无码人妻精品一区二区三区久久| 精品国产高清久久久久久| 亚洲AV无国产日韩AV在线播放| 老司机免费的精品视频| 亚洲嫩草影院久久精品| 一边摸一边抽搐一进一出视频| 欧美国产日韩在线观看成人亚洲大尺度视频| 国产欧美日韩另类精彩视频| 波多野结衣绝顶大高潮| 亚洲欧美中文日韩在线| 国产精品秘 入口久久熟女| 中文字幕人成无码| 亚洲欧美日韩v在线观看不卡| 亚洲国产精品久久久久久| 久久精品亚洲无中文| 国产精品亚洲а∨无码播放| 亚洲国产呦萝小初| 91久久精品午夜一区二区| 最新欧美国产亚洲一区二区三区精品久久久| 色老久久精品偷偷蜜臀| 国产午夜福利精品集在线观看| 国产对白老熟女正在播放| 永久免费A∨片在线观看| 国产精品视频白浆免费视频| 亚洲成a人片在线观看久| 免费毛片在线看片免费| 激情综合亚洲色婷婷五月app| 精品女同一区二区三区在线| 成人免费无码成人影院日韩| 成人免费一区二区无码视频|