作為經(jīng)濟史上人盡皆知的秘密之一，美聯(lián)儲（Federal Reserve）12月16日正式將基準利率提高到0.25%。這是美聯(lián)儲自2006年以來的首次加息，金融危機最后殘余的影響也將就此終結(jié)。

但現(xiàn)在好戲才剛剛開始。過去七年間，美國的利率一直保持在歷史最低水平——零利率。經(jīng)過如此長時間的低利率，人們對于加息之后的未來形勢，似乎更多了一些不安。過去幾個月，股票市場一直動蕩不安。一方面是由于石油價格問題，投資者擔心，所投資的公司（尤其是能源公司）可能無力償還債務。但至少有一部分擔憂源自利率。

這是因為，美聯(lián)儲的加息決定非同尋常。通常情況下，七名委員會成員同意通過加息來抵御通脹。但這一次，美國的通貨膨脹并不嚴重。而且相比美聯(lián)儲前幾次加息，現(xiàn)在，美國經(jīng)濟的增長速度更加乏力。但美聯(lián)儲主席珍妮特?耶倫宣布的決定，似乎是希望為美聯(lián)儲提供一種應對未來經(jīng)濟衰退的方法。在零利率的情況下，如果美聯(lián)儲需要幫助刺激市場，其可用的手段有限。

此外，在歐洲和日本央行為了渡過經(jīng)濟衰退的難關而繼續(xù)降息時，美國央行的加息顯得有些奇怪。加息之后，市場的波動性可能進一步加劇。

那么，加息到底對你我有何影響呢？

首先來看股市，首次加息很有可能主要反映在股市上。接下來將是更大的未知數(shù)。在貨幣市場，安聯(lián)投資分析師馬丁?霍克斯坦估計，投資者認為到2017年，美聯(lián)儲將加息到1.2%。但據(jù)美聯(lián)儲的經(jīng)濟預測顯示，至2017年，美國的利率水平將達到2.6%。然而，從歷史角度來看，霍克斯坦發(fā)現(xiàn)，分析師低估了前三個加息周期。因此，霍克斯坦補充說，1.4個百分點的差異是“巨大的，可能導致某些問題?！?/p>

如果美聯(lián)儲加息的幅度和速度高于投資者預期，這對于股市來說絕非好消息。高盛表示，在緊縮周期的第一年，股市的估值會下降10%。在過去的加息周期內(nèi)，能源、工業(yè)和科技部門在股市的表現(xiàn)，通常優(yōu)于其他經(jīng)濟部門。但考慮到石油價格下跌和新興市場的需求下降，至少對于能源和工業(yè)部門來說，這一次的情況可能截然不同。

加息時，銀行通常會成為潛在購買對象。大銀行的股票價格最近也一直在上漲。這是因為，只要銀行不需要將提高的利息轉(zhuǎn)嫁給貸款者，他們便可以從加息中獲益。但美國教師退休基金會（TIAA-CREF）的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，目前金融部門的表現(xiàn)比整體市場高出14%，比歷史平均水平下降了4%。利率提高時，公用事業(yè)部門的表現(xiàn)往往更差。除了2004年的曇花一現(xiàn)，公用事業(yè)部門的平均收益率為-5.8%。但2004年表明，我們有可能看到意外之喜。在那一個緊縮周期內(nèi)，公用事業(yè)部門的股票上漲了28%。

在債券方面，利率上漲，債券價格便會下跌。而這一次的情況可能更糟糕。這是因為目前的利率水平過低，難以彌補價格下跌的損失。霍克斯坦使用目前的債券收益率，根據(jù)以往的加息幅度進行了模擬，結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)，如果美聯(lián)儲按照市場預想的那樣上調(diào)利率，短期國債價格將下跌1.3%，而長期國債將下跌10.4%。目前，十年期國債的收益率為2.3%。這意味著，你需要用五年時間，才能賺回在一年中因價格下跌損失的利息。因此，雖然債券通常都是更為安全的投資選擇，但現(xiàn)在的形勢可能有所不同，尤其是當前，投資者對公司信用質(zhì)量的擔憂日盛。

能從加息中受益的或許是銀行儲蓄用戶。據(jù)美聯(lián)儲的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國家庭和非盈利機構(gòu)（美聯(lián)儲將兩個類別合二為一）的銀行儲蓄賬戶存款總額為8.3萬億美元。加息0.25%可能意味著210億美元的額外利息，或每個美國家庭每年約163美元。但需要重申的是，我們并不確定銀行是否會將額外的利息轉(zhuǎn)移給儲戶。

而在借款方面，利率和多數(shù)人支付的信用卡利息已經(jīng)存在巨大的差異。銀率網(wǎng)（Bankrate.com）分析師格雷格?麥克布萊德表示，通常要超過一次加息之后才會影響到信用卡利率?？勺兝首》抠J款通常會每年調(diào)整一次。麥克布萊德認為，如果在你的下一次貸款調(diào)整之前，美聯(lián)儲加息兩次或三次，你會發(fā)現(xiàn)自己的住房貸款“利率顯著提高”。

但多數(shù)借款利率，如30年抵押貸款，都與長期利息掛鉤，而長期利率通常會在經(jīng)濟預期好轉(zhuǎn)時上漲。因此，如果美聯(lián)儲的加息最終不會讓我們陷入經(jīng)濟衰退，住房和汽車貸款成本也會上漲，消費者將為此埋單。只是希望這些額外增加的成本，就當是我們?yōu)榻?jīng)濟好轉(zhuǎn)所付出的小小代價吧。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

In one of the worst kept secrets in economic history, the Federal Reserve is expected to officially increasing its benchmark interest rate to 0.25% on Wednesday. It’s the first increase since 2006 and it ends the last remaining hangover of the financial crisis.

But now the fun begins. Rates have sat at historic levels–zero–for seven years to the day. After such a long stretch of cheap money, there appears to be more nervousness than usual about what will happen. The stock market has gyrated over the past month. Some of that has been because of the price of oil, and worries that corporations, particularly energy companies, may not be able to pay back their debts. But at least some of the worry is about interest rates.

That’s because Wednesday’s decision is unusual. Typically, the seven board members agree to move up interest rates to fight off inflation. But this time around there hasn’t been much inflation. And the economy is growing at a weaker pace than when the Fed has hiked rates before. Nonetheless, Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s announcement appears to come out of a desire to give the Fed a way to counter a downturn in the economy in the future. Keeping the rate at zero gives it little recourse if the Fed needs to help stimulate markets.

It’s also strange for the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates, while central banks in Europe and Japan’s continue to lower as their respective interest rates in order to try to get over the last hump of their own downturns. That’s likely to add to the volatility of the market after a rate hike occurs.

How will this impact you?

For stocks, the first interest rate increase is likely mostly priced into the stock market. What happens next is a bigger unknown. Looking at money markets, Martin Hochstein of Allianz Global Investors estimates that investors believe that the Fed will eventually raise the interest rate to 1.2% by 2017. But according to the Fed’s economic projections, rates are likely to reach 2.6% by 2017. Historically speaking, though, Hochstein found that analysts underestimated the last three rate hike cycles. So that 1.4 percentage point difference is a “huge gap that could start some troubles,” added Hochstein.

If the Fed ends up raising rates higher and quicker than investors expect that will likely be bad for the stock market. Goldman Sachs says that valuations of the stock market tend to drop 10% in the first year of tightening cycles. In the past, shares of energy, industrials, and technology often outperform other areas of the economy during a rising rate cycle. But given dropping oil prices and lower demand from emerging markets, things may play out differently this time, at least for energy and industrials.

Banks often get pointed at as potential buys when interest rates rise. And shares of the biggest banks have been rising lately. That’s because they can benefit from higher interest rates as long as they don’t have to pass that higher interest off to borrowers. But TIAA-CREF’s data shows that financials only outperformed the market 14% of the time, dropping an average of 4%. Utilities tend to underperform when rates rise. The sector has returned -5.8% on average, if you exclude 2004’s blip. But 2004 shows there can be surprises. In that tighten cycle, utilities were up 28%.

For bonds, when interest rates rise, prices fall. And this time could be worse than usual. That’s because interest rates are so low, they won’t compensate for price drops. Using today’s yield, Hochstein ran simulations using past interest rate rises, finding that short term Treasuries could fall as much as 1.3% while long-term ones could drop 10.4%, if rate hikes proceed as the market thinks. The current yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is 2.3%. Meaning it could take you five years to earn back in interest what you lose in price over a year. So while bonds are typically a safer place for your investments, these days that likely not the case, especially considering the growing worries about corporate credit quality.

The benefit could be anyone who has money in a bank account. According to data from the Federal Reserve, Americans households and non-profits (the Fed combines the two categories) have just over $8.3 trillion in bank savings accounts. So a 0.25% increase could mean an extra $21 billion in interest, or about $163 per American household, a year. But, again, it’s not clear that banks will actually pass that extra interest along to savers.

As for borrowing, there is already a large gap between interest rates and what most people pay on their credit cards. Greg McBride of Bankrate.com says it usually takes more than one interest rate hike to impact credit card rates. Variable rate home loans usually adjust once a year. If the Fed raises rates two or three times before your next loan adjustment, then “you could see a noticeable interest rate increase” on your house payments, adds McBride.

But most borrowing rates, like 30-year mortgages, are tied to longer term interest rates, which typical rise when the economy is expected to do better. So if the Fed ends up raising interest rates without sending us into a recession, then borrowing costs for houses and autos could go up too, and that will cost consumers. But hopefully the extra cost will be a small price to pay for a better economy.