????通常，一國公布的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)好于預(yù)期時(shí)，股市都會(huì)迎來上漲，但中國卻偏偏例外。

????雖然中國第二季度國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值比去年同期增長7%，好于分析師預(yù)測(cè)的6.8%，但中國股市在周三（7月15日）仍然遭受重挫。

????上證綜指下跌3.1%，中證500指數(shù)則下挫5.8%，其中包括此前吸納了散戶杠桿投資者大量熱錢的小盤股。目前，中國股市已從6月份達(dá)到市場(chǎng)頂點(diǎn)之后下探了36%（但仍然比年初上漲了40%）。

????還要跌多久市場(chǎng)才能企穩(wěn)？

????究其原因，股市漲跌不僅受基本面的影響，也受人們對(duì)政府及央行是否會(huì)出臺(tái)提振市場(chǎng)的新政策的預(yù)期驅(qū)動(dòng)。隨著實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)向好，未來出臺(tái)更多刺激措施的可能性降低了，換言之，不太可能有更多的錢砸向市場(chǎng)來防止泡沫破裂了。

????早些時(shí)候，國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局表示，面臨“復(fù)雜的國內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境以及不斷增加的下行壓力”，該季度經(jīng)濟(jì)呈現(xiàn)“適度但穩(wěn)定增長”的態(tài)勢(shì)。

????此前，對(duì)于中國發(fā)布信息的可靠程度，尤其是當(dāng)增長速度沒能達(dá)到政府目標(biāo)時(shí)所公布的數(shù)據(jù)可信度一直飽受質(zhì)疑。此次，分析師依然對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)表示了懷疑態(tài)度。

????仔細(xì)來看，二季度大部分增長項(xiàng)都有所放緩：投資增速從13.5%降低到10.3%，零售增速從一季度的10.5%下降到10.2%。

????倫敦施羅德資產(chǎn)管理公司新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家克雷格?博瑟姆說，在這樣的情況下，GDP卻沒有下滑，這有點(diǎn)“奇怪”，“我們公司內(nèi)部模型計(jì)算的結(jié)果是，經(jīng)濟(jì)增速應(yīng)從6.9%下降到6.3%?！?/p>

????博瑟姆沒有指責(zé)政府“捏造”數(shù)據(jù)，但他指出支持這種出人意料的上漲背后的因素是非可持續(xù)性的。他表示，一季度由于助推股市泡沫的借貸活動(dòng)激增，金融領(lǐng)域?qū)DP的貢獻(xiàn)超出0.5%。而第二季度情況卻正好相反，并且可能持續(xù)到下一季度。此外，凈出口很可能占到二季度GDP中“相當(dāng)大的一部分”，這并非因?yàn)槌隹诳偭看蠓黾?，而是因?yàn)橹饕M(jìn)口貨物出現(xiàn)價(jià)格暴跌，如石油、鐵礦石等。而國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局并沒有說明GDP中各領(lǐng)域的具體貢獻(xiàn)比例。

????“支撐二季度經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)看起來并不牢靠，沒有支撐自身可持續(xù)發(fā)展的牢固基石，”博瑟姆說，“建立在沙粒之上的圣殿一旦風(fēng)云突變必將轟然倒塌——中國的命運(yùn)也許不至如此，但畢竟，地基不穩(wěn)，房屋不牢?！?/p>

????也許，股民的直接反應(yīng)并沒有錯(cuò)。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Donna

????校對(duì)：詹妮

????Mainland Chinese stocks fell heavily Wednesday, even though the country’s second-quarter gross domestic product forecasts beat expectations, showing that the economy grew 7% from a year earlier. Analysts had forecast only 6.8%.

????But the Shanghai Composite index fell 3.1% and the China Securities 500 index, which comprises the small-cap stocks which have attracted the bulk of the hot money flowing in from leveraged retail investors, fell another 5.8%. It’s down 36% from its peak in June (but still up over 40% since the start of the year).

????How far do Chinese stocks have to fall before they stabilize?

????That’s because the markets are trading not in reaction to fundamentals, but in anticipation of fresh measures by the government and central bank to prop the market up. With the real economy outdoing expectations, the chances of more stimulus measures–in other words, more money thrown at the market to stop the bubble deflating–have fallen.

????Earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics had said the economy showed “moderate but steady growth” in the quarter, in the face of “complicated external and domestic economic conditions and increasingly downward pressure.”

????Analysts reacted skeptically to the figures, which revived long-standing concerns about the reliability of China, especially when growth falls shorts of the government’s targets.

????Most of the individual components of growth appeared to be slowing down in the second quarter: investment growth slowed from 13.5% to 10.3%, and retail sales growth slowed to 10.2% from 10.5% in the first quarter.

????Craig Botham, emerging markets economist for asset management firm Schroders in London, said it was “odd” that GDP didn’t slow too–“our in-house model pointed to a consistent growth rate of around 6.3%, down from 6.9%.”

????Botham stopped short of accusing Beijing of “fudging” the numbers. But he pointed out that the factors that appear to have been behind the upside surprise are unlikely to be sustainable. The financial sector, he noted, had added 0.5% to GDP growth in the first quarter due to the boom in lending that supported the equity bubble. That went into reverse in the second quarter and is likely to continue in the next three months, he said. Additionally, he said, net exports probably contributed “a sizeable chunk” of GDP in the second quarter–not because export volumes are booming, but because the price of key imports such as oil and iron ore were collapsing. The NBS didn’t give a detailed breakdown of contributions to the GDP number.

????“The performance in Q2 looks to have been built upon shaky foundations, rather than the solid rock of self-sustaining growth,” Botham said. “The biblical house built upon sand ultimately fell with a great crash as the weather turned against it – the same fate may not await China, but all sandcastles ultimately crumble.”

????Perhaps Mr. & Mrs. Wu’s reaction in the stock market was right after all.