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一張圖看懂:股市暴跌的問題可能比你想得更嚴(yán)重

一張圖看懂:股市暴跌的問題可能比你想得更嚴(yán)重

Stephen Gandel, Stacy Jones 2015-07-09
有跡象表明,中國(guó)股市的下跌并非只是涉及股市本身,它有可能會(huì)觸動(dòng)整個(gè)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。突然之間,在美國(guó)上市的中概股最近跌得比國(guó)內(nèi)上市的那些股票更厲害。

????美國(guó)投資者終于切身體會(huì)到了中國(guó)股市跳水所帶來(lái)的影響。

????中國(guó)股市將近一個(gè)月的暴跌讓大盤狂降了26%,期間,美國(guó)投資者似乎一直在扮演旁觀者的角色。總體而言,美國(guó)股市近期持續(xù)上揚(yáng),而且在各類市場(chǎng)消息中,美國(guó)、希臘甚至是波多黎各都要比中國(guó)更為搶眼。

????然而問題在于,中國(guó)股市跳水會(huì)給全球市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)多大的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響?中國(guó)股市的波動(dòng)性很大。之前一飛沖天,現(xiàn)在一瀉千里。中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速正在放緩,但速度不快,很有可能會(huì)“軟著陸”,除非股市崩盤打破這一趨勢(shì)。

????中國(guó)股市的大多數(shù)投資者都是普通老百姓,但大多數(shù)中國(guó)人并沒有買股票。因此,我們很難得知股市的暴跌會(huì)帶來(lái)多大的影響。如今,中國(guó)似乎既有意愿,也有能力幫助其銀行擺脫困境。

????但是在過去一周,有跡象表明,中國(guó)股市的下跌并非只是涉及股市本身,它有可能會(huì)觸動(dòng)整個(gè)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。突然之間,在美國(guó)上市的中概股的表現(xiàn)開始落后于上交所的中國(guó)股。自7月初以來(lái),由阿里巴巴等在美上市的中國(guó)大公司組成的iShares高市值交易所交易基金指數(shù)(iShares Large-Cap ETF)下跌了10%。阿里巴巴股價(jià)最近下探至IPO以來(lái)的新低。指數(shù)中表現(xiàn)最差的當(dāng)屬為中國(guó)各省提供在線彩票服務(wù)的500.com。自6月中旬以來(lái),該公司股價(jià)下跌了40%。

????這波下跌所釋放的信號(hào)在于:中國(guó)股市的現(xiàn)狀并非僅是股價(jià)下跌這么簡(jiǎn)單,它可能意味著中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)要比人們想象的差。至少,這一現(xiàn)象說(shuō)明了中國(guó)股市的問題正蔓延至其他市場(chǎng)。不過,上述兩點(diǎn)都不是什么好事,而且美國(guó)投資者也應(yīng)對(duì)此有所警覺。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:馮豐

????校對(duì):詹妮

????U.S. investors are finally getting a front row seat to China’s market meltdown.

????Much of the near month-long collapse of the Chinese stock market, which has sent prices plunging 26%, has seemed like a sideshow to U.S. investors. Stocks in the U.S. in general have mostly continued to go up. And the U.S., Greece, and even Puerto Rico have played a larger role in market news.

????The question is, how big of an economic story is China’s stock market stumble? China’s market is volatile. It went up too much and now it is falling fast. The nation’s economy is slowing, but slowly, and likely into a soft-landing, unless the Chinese stock market crash changes that dynamic.

????The vast majority of Chinese stocks are held by average Chinese investors. But the vast majority of Chinese don’t own stocks. So it’s hard to know how much impact the drop will have. And China seems willing, and able, to bail out its banks for now.

????But in the past week, there have been signs that what’s going on in the Chinese markets is not just about the markets, but potentially about China’s economy overall. U.S.-listed Chinese stocks are all of sudden doing worse than Chinese stocks listed on the local Shanghai exchange. Since the beginning of July, the iShares Large-Cap ETF, which is made up of large U.S.-listed Chinese companies including Alibaba BABA -0.76% and others, is down about 10%. Alibaba recently fell to its lowest price since its IPO. The worst performer in the index is 500.com WBAI -16.64% , which offers online lottery services to Chinese provinces. That company’s stock is down 40% since mid-June.

????The drop in U.S.-listed Chinese stocks signals that what is going on in mainland China’s markets is more than just about stock prices. It could signal that the Chinese economy is in worse shape than we think. At the very least, it suggests that the troubles in China’s local stock market are spreading. Either one is not good. And something that U.S. investors should keep an eye on.

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