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親身體驗告訴我希臘也許永遠無法復(fù)蘇

親身體驗告訴我希臘也許永遠無法復(fù)蘇

William Antholis 2015-07-02
歐盟的著眼點一直在希臘的預(yù)算赤字上,而不是其競爭力基石上?,F(xiàn)在,在歐洲的作用下,希臘處于倒退邊緣。無論他們是否愿意留在歐盟,我還沒有發(fā)現(xiàn)有哪個希臘人相信歐洲其他國家想幫助希臘重振經(jīng)濟,降低失業(yè)率并提高競爭力。

????簡而言之,歐洲忽視了改革的政治可行性。他們要求希臘立即開始提高稅率并削減政府開支,這在希臘經(jīng)濟陷入衰退的路上又推它了一把。上屆希臘政府已經(jīng)開始實施一些改革,并讓經(jīng)濟重新實現(xiàn)增長。但歐洲給希臘施加了太多限制,而且后者的增長速度也不夠快。

????因此,歐洲讓希臘現(xiàn)任政府得到了它真正想要的東西——一個把責任推給歐洲的借口。

????兩年前,阿萊克斯?齊普拉斯曾造訪布魯金斯學會。我們深切體會到了他在政治上的精明,但圍繞在他身邊卻是一群業(yè)余的、被意識形態(tài)左右的顧問。齊普拉斯當時告訴我們,歐洲和希臘需要對方的程度相當。我們和他一樣,都認為緊縮措施本身不會帶來經(jīng)濟增長。但我們也明確告訴他,希臘政府也不是光花錢就行,而是要發(fā)揚創(chuàng)新和創(chuàng)業(yè)精神。

????希臘這場大戲的最后一幕才剛剛開始。這部戲的劇情錯綜復(fù)雜,希臘政府和歐盟方面都存在多種力量和聲音。他們?nèi)杂锌赡芑酁樯衿妗5臀覀€人而言,這是五年來我首次感到情況不樂觀。(財富中文網(wǎng))

????本文作者威廉?安索利斯是弗吉尼亞大學米勒中心首席執(zhí)行官。1997-1999年他曾在美國白宮國家安全委員會擔任國際經(jīng)濟事務(wù)主任。

????譯者:Charlie

????In short, Europe has ignored the political viability of reform. By demanding immediate and unceasingly higher taxes and cuts in government spending, they have helped to send Greece into a depression. The last Greek government had begun to implement some reforms and return the country to economic growth. But Europe’s constraints were too heavy, and the growth was not fast enough.

????As a result, Europe has given the current government exactly what it wanted: an excuse to blame failure on the EU.

????Two years ago, we hosted Alexis Tsipras at Brookings. He struck us as politically astute, but surrounded by an amateurish and ideologically driven group of advisors.

????Tsipras, at the time, told us that Europe needed Greece as much as Greece needed Europe. We agreed with him that austerity would not by itself lead to growth. But we also made clear to him that neither would government spending alone – that Greece needed to unleash its innovative and entrepreneurial spirit.

????This is just the opening scene in the final act of this drama. It is a very complicated play — multiple forces and voices within both the Greek government and the EU. There is still a chance that they can pull a rabbit out of the hat. But for the first time in the last five years, I’m not optimistic.

????William Antholis is the CEO of the Miller Center at the University of Virginia. He served as Director of International Economic Affairs on the White House National Security Council from 1997 to 1999.

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