????一年前，印度的未來看起來并不怎么樂觀。經(jīng)濟(jì)增長乏力，通脹引發(fā)擔(dān)憂，國家政府公信力的缺失帶來了不確定性和悲觀情緒。新總理莫迪上任后承諾對政府進(jìn)行改革并重振其低迷的經(jīng)濟(jì)，印度局勢因此而發(fā)生了重大變化。

????上周日，美國總統(tǒng)奧巴馬開始了為期三天的印度之行。期間，他與莫迪舉行了會晤，以鞏固美印關(guān)系，而外界最為關(guān)注的是印度這個最大的民主國家的潛力以及此次訪問對全球投資者意味著什么。大多數(shù)跡象表明，印度前景一片光明，而且很有可能成為超級大國。

????當(dāng)然，印度面臨著挑戰(zhàn)。莫迪推行的改革才剛剛開始。政治、文化和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素可能延緩或影響改革進(jìn)程；根除政府腐敗的難度可能超過預(yù)期；在基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施匱乏和民眾普遍貧困的嚴(yán)峻現(xiàn)實(shí)面前，過高的經(jīng)濟(jì)抱負(fù)可能化為泡影。同時，由于印度與有核鄰國巴基斯坦的關(guān)系越發(fā)緊張，而且中國軍事實(shí)力在不斷增強(qiáng)，印度可能被迫將大量資金用于國防，而上述因素也會加劇印度教教徒和穆斯林教徒之間的沖突，并讓印度政府無力關(guān)注其他重要工作。

????不過，盡管存在這些不利因素，但對于印度美好未來的展望仍是毋庸置疑的，原因有三：

????首先是經(jīng)濟(jì)。莫迪的改革旨在改變限制性工商業(yè)法規(guī)并建立一個真正自由的市場，這些措施似乎已經(jīng)開始發(fā)揮作用。2014年第三季度印度的GDP增長率為5.3%，盡管稍低于第二季度，但遠(yuǎn)高于之前幾年的水平。國際貨幣基金組織估算，印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模為1.9萬億美元，今年將增長6.4%。世界銀行指出，按購買力平價（即按照各經(jīng)濟(jì)體的價格差異進(jìn)行調(diào)整后的等值系數(shù)）計算，印度已經(jīng)超過日本，成為全球第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。

????此外，油價不斷下跌使通脹風(fēng)險下降，也讓印度政府得以削減高昂的燃料補(bǔ)貼。去年10月份，以索納爾?瓦爾瑪為首的野村證券經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們在一份報告中估算，油價每下跌10美元/桶，印度GDP就會增長0.1%，通脹率將下降0.5個百分點(diǎn)，經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目逆差也會縮小。由于政府放寬了投資限制，再加上利率穩(wěn)定，外國在印投資增加了數(shù)百億美元，其中包括來自日本私營和公共領(lǐng)域的330億美元投資，這進(jìn)一步提振了印度經(jīng)濟(jì)。

????莫迪改革計劃的第二部分是改善印度的國家基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，其中包括增加8000億美元的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施開支，以便讓印度經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)7%的增長目標(biāo)，同時還允許銀行購買基建債券，以盤活債券市場交易。去年年底，莫迪還從中國爭取到了200億美元基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資。所有這些措施可能讓印度有能力對不堪重負(fù)的交通運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行升級，為更多地區(qū)提供生活用水和電力，并讓技術(shù)的應(yīng)用范圍擴(kuò)大到全國。

????A year ago, India’s future looked bleak. Anemic economic growth, inflationary fears, and a lack of credible leadership in New Delhi had fostered uncertainty and pessimism. That changed dramatically when Narendra Modi became Prime Minister on the promise of reforming India’s government and jumpstarting its floundering economy.

????On Sunday, President Obama begins a three-day visit to India. As he meets with Modi to cement America’s relations with India, all eyes will be on the world’s largest democracy’s potential and what it could mean for investors worldwide. Most signs point to a bright future and to the possibility that India could well become a superpower.

????There are challenges, of course. The reforms that Modi has initiated are still in early stages. Political, cultural, and macroeconomic factors could slow down or derail progress; government corruption could be harder to eradicate than imagined, and oversized economic ambitions could crash against the hard reality of poor infrastructure and widespread poverty. At the same time, rising tension with its nuclear neighbor Pakistan and the growing military might of China could require India to spend heavily on defense, create internal strife between Hindus and Muslims, and distract from other priorities.

????But despite all this, the promise of a brighter future for India still holds firm. There are three reasons for this:

????The first is economic. Modi’s initiatives aimed at revamping India’s restrictive business regulations and creating a real free market seem to be working. Even though GDP growth in the third quarter of 2014 slowed slightly from the summer to 5.3%, it was still much higher than that of the last several years. India’s $1.9 trillion economy is projected to expand by 6.4%this year, according to the International Monetary Fund, and the country has already outpaced Japan as the world’s third largest economy in terms of purchasing price parity, a measure that adjusts for price differences between economies, according to the World Bank.

????In addition, falling oil prices have reduced the risk of inflation and will enable the country to cut its costly fuel subsidies. Every a $10-a-barrel decline could increase GDP by 0.1%, lower inflation by 0.5%, and narrow the current account deficit, Nomura economists led by Sonal Varma wrote in an October report. Further bolstering the economy is the billions of dollars in increased foreign investments, including$33 billion from private and public sources in Japan, aided by the raising of investment caps by the government and a stable interest rate environment.

????The second part of Modi’s plan is to improve India’s national infrastructure. This includes a proposed increase in infrastructure spending of $800 billion to reach targeted economic growth of 7% as well asenabling banks to buy infrastructure bonds to spur trading activity in the debt markets. Late last year, Modi also secured a $20 billion infrastructure investment from China. Collectively, these initiatives could enable India to upgrade its overtaxed transport system, bring stable water supply and electricity to more areas, and expand the use of technology throughout the country.