本文為與《時代》雜志的合作內(nèi)容。

新年已至，讓我們在此總結(jié)一下石油市場形勢。實際情況表明，2014年對石油市場來說非常重要——油價在短短六個月內(nèi)下降了一半。

人們最為關(guān)心的問題是，2015年石油價格將何去何從？石油目前的低價位是不可持續(xù)的。許多產(chǎn)油成本較高的企業(yè)和地區(qū)都處于虧損狀態(tài)。短期內(nèi)這種狀況也許還可以應付，但中長期來看，石油公司將被迫退出市場，進而帶動油價上升。然而，最重要的問題在于：石油價格何時上漲，以及漲幅能有多大？

那么，這對2015年的油價意味著什么呢？人們對此各執(zhí)己見。然而，今后12個月的油價走勢將由下列五大因素（排名不分先后）決定。

1.中國經(jīng)濟。中國是世界上第二大石油消費國，并且已經(jīng)在2013年底超過美國，成為全球最大液體燃料進口國。對于油價來說，更重要的一點取決于中國石油消費量在今后幾年的增長態(tài)勢。美國能源情報署預計，2020年中國的日均原油消費量將比2012年高出300萬桶，約占這段時間內(nèi)全球新增需求的四分之一。盡管還存在很多不確定因素，但中國經(jīng)濟剛剛送走了令人失望的第四季度。最終，中國2014年全年經(jīng)濟增長率跌至逾25年來的最低點。中國經(jīng)濟能否停止減速，這一點我們難以得知，但它的走勢將對2015年的油價產(chǎn)生巨大影響。

2. 美國頁巖油。截至2014年底，美國頁巖油日產(chǎn)量已經(jīng)超過900萬桶，比2007年增加了80%。這些頁巖油是造成石油供給過剩的主要力量，而供過于求是2014年油價暴跌的誘因之一?？偟膩碚f，美國頁巖油開采公司都搬起石頭砸了自己的腳，但關(guān)鍵在于，西德州輕質(zhì)低硫原油（WTI）價格跌破60美元對它們有何影響？頁巖油鉆機數(shù)量不斷減少，相關(guān)開支也遭到削減，然而到目前為止，美國頁巖油產(chǎn)量依然穩(wěn)定。按照當前油價，這個行業(yè)能否維持產(chǎn)出水平，或者說美國頁巖油產(chǎn)量會不會減少將對國際市場供應乃至油價產(chǎn)生重大影響。

3. 需求彈性。解決價格低迷的方法就是低價。這是老生常談，而且適用于供需兩個方面。超低的原油價格會刺激需求復蘇嗎？某些國家對石油市場控制較嚴，低油價可能不會延伸到零售領(lǐng)域。印尼等國已經(jīng)取消成品油補貼，這有利于國家財政，但消費者得到的實惠將減少。不過，美國汽油價格已跌破每加侖2.40美元，與2014年中期相比，降幅超過了35%。而此番降價已帶動汽油消費的攀升。2014年底，美國汽油日消費量創(chuàng)2007年以來新高。低價可以提升需求，而需求的增長則可帶動油價反彈。

4. 歐佩克的下一步行動。說到去年的油價暴跌，石油輸出國組織（OPEC）起了很大作用（或者說要承擔很大責任）。雖然許多評論人士都說歐佩克保持原油產(chǎn)量不變無關(guān)緊要，然而，僅油價在該組織11月份會議過后出現(xiàn)暴跌這一事實便充分證明了該組織對油價走勢的影響力。目前，歐佩克——更確切地說是沙特——仍在堅持己見，毫無下調(diào)生產(chǎn)配額的跡象。2015年這一情況是否會得以延續(xù)，仍有待觀察。

5. 地緣政治事件。不久之前，石油供應稍有差池，油價就會飆升。比如說2014年初，利比亞內(nèi)亂造成該國石油出口中斷，油價應聲上漲。在伊拉克， 極端組織ISIS領(lǐng)了部分地區(qū)，石油供應中斷的顧慮也造成油價急劇攀升。然而，自此之后，地緣政治事件對油價的影響大為減弱。2014年最后幾周，利比亞再現(xiàn)戰(zhàn)事。但市場僅在油價短暫上揚后便把這一問題拋諸腦后。不過，歷史一再證明，地緣政治危機是對油價影響最大的短期因素之一。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

本文最初發(fā)表在OilPrice.com網(wǎng)站上。

譯者：Charlie

審稿：李翔

This post is in partnership with Time. The article below was originally published at Time.com

As we ring in the New Year, let’s take stock of where we are at with the oil markets. 2014 proved to be a momentous one for the oil markets, having seen prices cut in half in just six months.

The big question is what oil prices will do in 2015. Oil prices are unsustainably low right now – many high-cost oil producers and oil-producing regions are currently operating in the red. That may work in the short-term, but over the medium and long-term, companies will be forced out of the market, precipitating a price rise. The big question is when they will rise, and by how much.

So, what does that mean for oil prices in 2015? It is anybody’s guess, but here are the top five variables that will determine the trajectory of oil prices over the next 12 months, in no particular order.

1. China’s Economy. China is the second largest consumer of oil in the world and surpassed the United States as the largest importer of liquid fuels in late 2013. More importantly for oil prices is how much China’s consumption will increase in the coming years. According to the EIA, China is expected burn through 3 million more barrels per day in 2020 compared to 2012, accounting for about one-quarter of global demand growth over that timeframe. Although there is much uncertainty, China just wrapped up a disappointing fourth quarter, capping off its slowest annual growth in over a quarter century. It is not at all obvious that China will be able to halt its sliding growth rate, but the trajectory of China’s economy will significantly impact oil prices in 2015.

2. American shale. By the end of 2014, the U.S. was producing more than 9 million barrels of oil per day, an 80 percent increase from 2007. That output went a long way to creating a glut of oil, which helped send oil prices to the dumps in 2014. Having collectively shot themselves in the foot, the big question is how affected U.S. drillers will be by sub-$60 WTI. Rig counts continue to fall, spending is being slashed, but output has so far been stable. Whether the industry can maintain output given today’s prices or production begins to fall will have an enormous impact on international supplies, and as a result, prices.

3. Elasticity of Demand.The cure for low prices is low prices. That cliché can be applied to both the supply and demand side of the equation. Will oil selling at fire sale prices spur renewed demand? In some countries where oil is more regulated, low prices may not trickle down to the retail level. Countries like Indonesia are scrapping subsidies, which will be a boon to state coffers but will diminish the benefits to consumers. However, in the U.S., gasoline prices are now below $2.40 per gallon, more than 35 percent down from mid-2014. That has led to an uptick in gasoline consumption. In the waning days of 2014, the U.S. consumed gasoline at the highest daily rate since 2007. Low prices could spark higher demand, which in turn could send oil prices back up.

4. OPEC’s Next Move.OPEC deserves a lot of credit (or blame) for the remarkable downturn in oil prices last year. While many pundits have declared OPEC irrelevant after their decision to leave output unchanged, the mere fact that oil prices crashed after the cartel’s November meeting demonstrates just how influential they are over price swings. For now OPEC – or, more accurately, Saudi Arabia – has stood firm in its insistence not to cut production quotas. Whether that remains true through 2015 is up in the air.

5. Geopolitical flashpoints.In the not too distant past, a small supply disruption would send oil prices skyward. In early 2014, for example, violence in Libya blocked oil exports, contributing to a rise in oil prices. In Iraq, ISIS overran parts of the country and oil prices shot up on fears of supply outages. But since then, geopolitical flashpoints have had much less of an effect on the price of crude. During the last few weeks of 2014, violence flared up again in Libya. But after a brief increase in prices, the markets shrugged off the event. Nevertheless, history has demonstrated time and again that geopolitical crises are some of the most powerful short-term movers of oil prices.

This post originally appeared on OilPrice.com.