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中國(guó)制造業(yè)PMI下滑震動(dòng)全球

中國(guó)制造業(yè)PMI下滑震動(dòng)全球

Geoffrey Smith 2014-08-26
中國(guó)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)創(chuàng)3個(gè)月新低,市場(chǎng)擔(dān)心春季刺激措施的效果已經(jīng)消失。匯豐銀行大中華區(qū)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家屈宏斌認(rèn)為,中國(guó)政府需出臺(tái)更多的政策支持,來(lái)鞏固經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。

????針對(duì)全球一些最大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的商業(yè)景氣調(diào)查結(jié)果于上周四出爐,從中可以看出,除美國(guó)外,其他地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)看來(lái)都失去了增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力。

????初步結(jié)果顯示,中國(guó)和歐元區(qū)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)(PMI)雙雙告跌,盡管二者仍保持著和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)相符的水平。

????中國(guó)制造業(yè)PMI從7月份的51.7降至50.3,跌幅超過(guò)預(yù)期,這讓人們擔(dān)心今年初政府刺激措施對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的推動(dòng)作用可能已經(jīng)消失。PMI高于50一般代表經(jīng)濟(jì)處于增長(zhǎng)狀態(tài)。

????匯豐銀行(HSBC)大中華區(qū)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家屈宏斌在公布PMI數(shù)據(jù)的聲明中說(shuō):“我們認(rèn)為需要更多的政策支持來(lái)幫助鞏固經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。”

????這條消息造成上海和香港股市雙雙下跌,兩市基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)分別低收0.4%和0.7%。

????歐元區(qū)方面,一個(gè)融合制造業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)的綜合PMI指數(shù)從7月份的53.8降至52.8,其中制造業(yè)PMI跌幅超過(guò)服務(wù)業(yè)。服務(wù)業(yè)和制造業(yè)PMI均保持在50以上,這和上周公布的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)多少有些差異——后者表明,第二季度歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)任何增長(zhǎng),夏季開(kāi)局低迷。

????人們通常認(rèn)為PMI可以比較及時(shí)地反映經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,但歐元區(qū)PMI尚未體現(xiàn)出烏克蘭沖突造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)急劇滑坡——?dú)W元區(qū)和俄羅斯的貿(mào)易已經(jīng)受到了影響,和其他東歐國(guó)家的貿(mào)易也是如此,只是程度較輕。

????金融信息供應(yīng)商Markit公司指出,經(jīng)歷連續(xù)3個(gè)月下跌之后,其法國(guó)PMI已在50處企穩(wěn),但制造業(yè)PMI跌至46.5,創(chuàng)15個(gè)月新低,而且公司裁員速度也達(dá)到了6個(gè)月來(lái)的最高水平。這些數(shù)據(jù)公布后,法國(guó)股市基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)CAC-40早盤(pán)上漲0.6%,德國(guó)DAX指數(shù)也上升了0.4%。

????日本經(jīng)濟(jì)的表現(xiàn)也好于預(yù)期。其制造業(yè)PMI從7月份的50.4升至52.4,推動(dòng)日經(jīng)指數(shù)上漲0.9%。Markit公司提供的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,日本就業(yè)人數(shù)增速創(chuàng)3個(gè)月新高,產(chǎn)量和新訂單均大幅上升。

????受增值稅上調(diào)影響,近期日本經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)一直表現(xiàn)糟糕,許多人都擔(dān)心提高增值稅可能扼殺經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。不過(guò),Markit公司經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家艾米?布朗希爾表示:“日本經(jīng)濟(jì)似乎正在擺脫銷(xiāo)售稅上升的影響;17年前日本也像這樣提高過(guò)增值稅,但現(xiàn)在的日本經(jīng)濟(jì)顯得更有韌性?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:Charlie

????Global growth outside the U.S. appeared lost momentum in August, according to business surveys of some of the world’s largest economies published Thursday.

????The Purchasing Managers Indices for China and the Eurozone both fell, although both remained at levels consistent with economic growth, preliminary estimates showed.

????The decline in the Chinese manufacturing PMI, to 50.3 in August from 51.7 in July, was bigger than expected, raising fears that the boost to the economy from government stimulus measures earlier in the year may already have run its course. An index reading above 50 generally signifies growth.

????“We think more policy support is needed to help consolidate the recovery,” said Hongbin Qu, chief economist for China at HSBC, said in a statement accompanying the release.

????Stocks in both Shanghai and Hong Kong fell on the news, with the benchmark indexes down 0.4% and 0.7% respectively by the close.

????In the Eurozone, a composite index blending both manufacturing and services output fell to 52.8 from 53.8 in July, with the manufacturing index falling more sharply than the services one. Both remained above 50, somewhat at odds with data released last week showing that the Eurozone economy failed to grow at all in the second quarter and started the summer in weak fashion.

????Although the indices are generally seen as a reliable indicator of economic developments more or less in real time, they have failed to pick up the sharp slowdown in the Eurozone as the conflict in Ukraine has taken its toll on trade with Russia and, to a lesser extent, other eastern European countries.

????Markit noted that its French index had stabilized at 50 after three straight declines, albeit the manufacturing index fell to a 15-month low of 46.5 and companies shed jobs at the fastest rate in six months. The French CAC-40 benchmark stock index was up 0.6% by mid-morning in response, while Germany’s DAX index was up 0.4%.

????There was also a positive surprise in Japan, where the manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 from 50.4 in July, driving the Nikkei index up by 0.9%. Payrolls grew at the fastest rate in three months and there was a sharp rise both in output and new orders, according to index publisher Markit.

????Japan’s recent economic data have been badly distorted by a hike in value-added tax that many feared could stop the recovery in its tracks. However, Markit economist Amy Brownbill said “It would seem that the Japanese economy is recovering from the rise in the sales tax and showing more resilience than 17 years ago when a similar tax hike was implemented.”

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