????即使上述的數(shù)字都是正確的，我也無(wú)法依靠這些數(shù)字預(yù)測(cè)到谷歌的股價(jià)會(huì)在2014年達(dá)到近600美元。但是，我還以為股票的回購(gòu)價(jià)在50美元。

????第二，一些公司確實(shí)能做到名符其實(shí)，事實(shí)上，可能比我們預(yù)期的還要好。我同達(dá)莫達(dá)蘭聯(lián)系，聊起這個(gè)10年前的錯(cuò)誤。他告訴我不需要為此太過(guò)介意，他認(rèn)為在公司估值問(wèn)題上，失誤率一般都在20%左右。對(duì)我來(lái)說(shuō)絕不止這個(gè)數(shù)字。很多在十年前被我視作成功的公司現(xiàn)在都已經(jīng)輝煌不再。不過(guò)，其中倒是也沒(méi)有八家公司破產(chǎn)。

????這些公司在未來(lái)十年的表現(xiàn)可能會(huì)超出預(yù)期。因此，我們應(yīng)該問(wèn)的并不是一家公司在下個(gè)十年到底能掙多少錢，而是從現(xiàn)在開(kāi)始十年后，它是否還會(huì)存在。假設(shè)它依然存在，那么它會(huì)比你預(yù)計(jì)的還要成功。

????最后，那些成功的公司往往比你想象的還要有價(jià)值，這就是股市的本性。我們都在追逐同一批為數(shù)不多的股票，市場(chǎng)永遠(yuǎn)在隨大流。我們認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)和所有的買入賣出都是建立在對(duì)公司價(jià)值的精確估值上。這就是有效市場(chǎng)假說(shuō)。但事實(shí)正好相反，股票市場(chǎng)和其他市場(chǎng)一樣，好的東西往往比你的預(yù)估更有價(jià)值，而壞的東西則會(huì)被過(guò)高估價(jià)。

????哥倫比亞大學(xué)（Columbia）權(quán)威專家布魯斯?格林沃德說(shuō)我并不應(yīng)該因?yàn)殄e(cuò)估了谷歌公司而這么沮喪。十年前，搜索市場(chǎng)在不斷變化，好多東西還不完善。但是，我本應(yīng)該知道谷歌公司并不會(huì)垮掉，而且隨著在線廣告蓬勃發(fā)展，該公司就會(huì)掌握整個(gè)廣告行業(yè)。簡(jiǎn)言之，我應(yīng)該明白谷歌公司并不只是一家普通的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司，它是一家領(lǐng)先業(yè)界的、獨(dú)一無(wú)二的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司。而我當(dāng)時(shí)并不知道這一點(diǎn)。

????我從中學(xué)到的東西是：十年前，我認(rèn)為價(jià)格是投資股市時(shí)最重要的元素?，F(xiàn)在我覺(jué)得這種理解是不正確的。而谷歌給我上了生動(dòng)的一課，使我深刻意識(shí)到，在投資時(shí)最重要的是要選擇正確的公司。只要選擇正確，你買的股票就就不會(huì)讓你失望。

????你怎么才能知道哪些公司會(huì)成功呢？這是我要闡釋的第二點(diǎn)，這也是更為有用的一點(diǎn)。我從谷歌案例上學(xué)到的是：購(gòu)買指數(shù)基金。我無(wú)法預(yù)知未來(lái)，你能么？想要選擇好的股票，你必須有準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)的能力。因此別費(fèi)力去預(yù)測(cè)了，你只需要買標(biāo)普500上的股票。如果有公司終會(huì)成功，比如谷歌的例子，那么放心，它們最終會(huì)出現(xiàn)在指數(shù)上。

????谷歌上市成功的幾個(gè)月后，其股票攀升到約61美元，那時(shí)我再一次建議大家別碰這只股票。相反的，我還建議去買eBay。我又錯(cuò)了！eBay的股票從那時(shí)起只升值了17%。我還曾建議別去買雅虎（Yahoo）的股票，這個(gè)倒是對(duì)的，但是這不足以抹去我曾經(jīng)給出史上最差投資建議的事實(shí)。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????If I had gotten that number correct, and trusted it, I still wouldn’t have predicted that Google’s shares would be near $600 by 2014. But I would have thought the stock was a buy back at $50.

????Second, some companies do live up to their hype. Actually, probably more than most of us expect. Damodaran, who I called up to chat about our decade old folly, said not to be so down on trying to value companies. He thinks you will be wrong 20% of the time. That seems low to me. A number of companies that I thought were successes a decade ago have faltered. But I can’t think of eight high profile busts.

????The companies that are still around a decade from now will probably perform better than expected. So the better question is not what the company will earn over the next ten years, but will it be around ten years from now. And then just assume if it is, it will do much better than you expect.

????Lastly, the companies that succeed are always going to be worth more than you think they are worth. That’s the nature of the stock market. We’re all chasing the same few stocks. And the market moves in herds. We think of the market and all the buying and selling as a way to come at the exact price a company is worth. That’s the efficient market hypothesis. Instead, the market for stocks works like any other market. The good stuff always costs more than you think it should. And the bad stuff is always overpriced.

????Bruce Greenwald, Columbia’s reigning expert when it comes to investing, says I shouldn’t feel so bad about being so wrong about Google. A decade ago, the search business still seemed in flux. So again, I would have had to have known that Google wasn’t going away, and that it along with online advertising was going to take over the advertising world. In short, I had to know that Google was not just another Internet company, but the Internet company. I did not know that.

????So here’s what I think I have learned: A decade ago, I thought price was the most important thing when it came to investing in stocks. That doesn’t seem right to me. The lesson of Google is that the most important thing when it comes to investing is picking the right companies. Get that right, and the price you pay for their shares is always going to be a good bet.

????How do you know what companies will succeed? That leads me to my second, and more useful, lesson from my experience with Google: Buy index funds. I don’t know the future. Do you? And you kind of have to know the future really well to pick individual stocks. So don’t do it. Just buy the S&P 500. If the companies are successful, like Google, they will end up in the index eventually.

????A few months after the IPO’s success, when Google’s stock had risen to the equivalent of $61, I again advised avoiding the stock. Instead, I said to buy eBay . Wrong, again. eBay’s stock is up a pathetic 17% since then. Although I also said to avoid the shares of Yahoo –a good call, but not enough to get me off the hook for the worst investment call of all time.