????既然塔吉特（Target）可以先于少女的父親知道她已經(jīng)懷孕，那么，風(fēng)險投資公司也應(yīng)該有能力在初創(chuàng)公司誕生之前，便鎖定潛在的創(chuàng)始人。所需要的只是適當?shù)臄?shù)據(jù)而已。

????這正是不斷演進的風(fēng)險投資行業(yè)未來的發(fā)展方向。正如馬克?蘇斯特上周指出的那樣，風(fēng)險投資行業(yè)的兩極分化日益加劇。一方面，種子基金如雨后春筍般崛起，占新建基金總數(shù)的67%，另一方面，大型基金則變得日益龐大。對于早期投資者而言，這意味著競爭日益激烈，進而導(dǎo)致估值泡沫。等到一位公司創(chuàng)始人開始進行種子期融資時，其公司的估值可能已經(jīng)達到1,000萬美元。

????要避免這種情況，方法之一是將投資的節(jié)點提前。在公司還未誕生之前就進行投資。甚至連創(chuàng)始人自己都不知道他們會進行創(chuàng)業(yè)的時候，便提前開始“燒冷灶”。彭博資訊（Bloomberg LP）旗下的創(chuàng)投基金B(yǎng)loomberg Beta已經(jīng)花了一年時間這么做了。

????該基金曾嘗試獨自建立“未來創(chuàng)始人”數(shù)據(jù)庫，但以失敗告終，因此，它決定與丹尼爾?莫里爾創(chuàng)建的交易情報公司Mattermark合作。其研究結(jié)果可能對投資決策方式產(chǎn)生深遠影響。目前的投資決策通常均基于投資者的本能和直覺。

????Mattermark確定了成功的創(chuàng)始人最有可能的職業(yè)發(fā)展路徑，并創(chuàng)建了一個150萬人的數(shù)據(jù)庫，由距離科技創(chuàng)業(yè)公司1-2個維度的人組成，但還不是創(chuàng)始人。通過分析八個月內(nèi)創(chuàng)建公司的人，Mattermark先標出了確定一個人是否會創(chuàng)建公司最強有力的預(yù)測因素：一個人所接受的教育；他們之前工作的公司與所達到的職務(wù)級別；地理位置和年齡。這么做的目標是找出那些不符合標準創(chuàng)業(yè)路徑的東西。正如莫里爾指出的：“凡是看起來成型的東西，那肯定已經(jīng)有人找到它了。”

????最終結(jié)果顯示，創(chuàng)業(yè)者的年齡要高于預(yù)期，但從事的職位沒有達到預(yù)計高度。數(shù)據(jù)庫內(nèi)的群體，約40%超過了40歲。約有一半的人曾在有風(fēng)投注資的公司工作，但有三分之二的人未從事過高級管理職務(wù)。管理咨詢顧問創(chuàng)業(yè)的幾率是其他職業(yè)的兩倍。Bloomberg Beta最終鎖定了350名潛在創(chuàng)始人，并邀請他們前往紐約和舊金山參加聚會。

????If Target can figure out a teen girl was pregnant before her father did, venture firms should be able to identify founders before they start companies. All it takes is the right data.

????That’s where venture capital—ever evolving—is headed. As Mark Susterpointed out last week, the venture capital landscape has become increasingly bifurcated. Seed funds are springing up everywhere, representing 67% of all new funds created, and large funds have gotten even larger. For the early stage investors, this means increased competition and frothy valuations. By the time a founder sets out to raise a seed round, the startup’s valuation might be $10 million.

????One way to get around that is to invest even earlier. Invest before the company is a company. Before the founder even knows they’re a founder. Bloomberg Beta, the venture investment arm of Bloomberg LP, has been doing this for a year now.

????After an unsuccessful attempt to build a database of “future founders” on its own, the firm teamed up with Mattermark, the deal intelligence company founded by Danielle Morrill. The results could have ramifications for the way investment decisions, typically driven by gut instinct and intuition, are made.

????Mattermark identified the most likely career paths of successful founders, creating a pool of 1.5 million people who were connected by one to two degrees of separation to tech startups, but were not founders yet. By analyzing the people that started companies over nine months, Mattermark mapped out the strongest predictors of starting a company: a person’s education, which previous companies they’ve worked for and how senior they were, their geography, and their age. The goal was to find things that didn’t fit the standard path to entrepreneurship. As Morrill points out: “Anything that looks like a pattern, people will already find it.”

????The resulting mix of people were older but less senior than you’d expect. Almost 40% of those in the dataset were over 40 years old. Almost half of the people in the data set had worked for a VC-backed company, but two thirds were not in senior leadership positions. Management consultants were twice as likely to start companies. Bloomberg Beta narrowed the list to 350 potential founders, and invited them to parties in New York and San Francisco.