????向前看，而不是向后看

????就在幾年前，對風投行業(yè)的評價還是，過去15年的表現較差，風投這種資產類別并不值得采取有限合伙投資形式。我已經用大量數據說明，這些分析的缺陷在于它們只考慮了“后視鏡”數據。它們所用的數據只涵蓋了互聯網泡沫的高峰期，在這期間出現了許多資本過剩的公司，消費者和企業(yè)市場則規(guī)模有限。在短短三年內，風投行業(yè)的規(guī)模就增長了兩倍。

????目前情況如何？

????? 互聯網用戶達24億人，是之前的50多倍。

????? 網絡連接速度比以前快180倍，達到每秒10.5Mb。

????? 1.64億美國智能手機用戶給我們帶來了“全天候在線”的移動連接。

????? 社交渠道把我們所有人都聯系在一起，因此好公司擴張得更快。

????? 蘋果公司（Apple）、谷歌（Google）、亞馬遜（Amazon）和易趣（eBay）等公司給予我們一鍵購物的暢快體驗。

????? 風投市場重返20世紀90年代中期的水平，規(guī)模適當，競爭減少。

????? 設立公司的成本下降95%，這意味著天使投資者和種子投資者能夠為更多的初創(chuàng)公司提供融資支持。

????? 公司的規(guī)?；匀恍枰L投資金，也就是說，大量資金都流向了Uber、Airbnb和Snapchat這樣的行業(yè)佼佼者。

????無需跳躍式思維也可以觀察到，在即將到來的未來，風投行業(yè)處于一個多么有利的位置。有限合伙人們已經注意到，從任何標準判斷，2014年都是自2008-2009年“大衰退（Great Recession）”以來最繁忙的一年，原因是預計將有250-300億美元資金投入到200多只風投基金中。這些資金將流向何處？風投行業(yè)又將出現什么樣的變化呢？

????A look forward, not backward

????Just a few years ago the narrative in the venture capital industry was that performance over the past 15 years was poor and that venture wasn’t an asset class worthy of limited partner’s investment. As I pointed out in presentation with much data, these analyses were flawed in that they considered only rear-view mirror data. The data set only considered only a period at the peak of Internet hype, with the launch of many over-capitalized businesses against a limited market size of consumers and businesses, and a venture capital industry that had tripled in size in just three years.

????Where are we today?

????? We have 2.4 billion Internet users, or 50x more than before.

????? Online connections are 180x faster at 10.5 Mbps.

????? 164m US smartphone users gives us “always-on” mobile connectivity

????? We’re all socially connected, so great businesses spread faster.

????? We all have one-click purchase power through Apple, Google, Amazon and eBay.

????? The VC market has right-sized, returning back to mid 90′s levels with less competition.

????? The cost to start a business is 95% lower, meaning many more companies are created and funded by angel and seed investors.

????? It still takes venture capital to scale a business, which means large amounts of capital go into industry winners like Uber, Airbnb and Snapchat.

????It doesn’t take a huge leap to see how well the VC industry is positioned for the immediate future. LPs have taken notice as 2014 is by all accounts the busiest year for LPs since the Great Recession began as it is forecast that between $25-30 billion to be invested in some 200 venture funds. Where will these dollars go and how is the industry changing?