????美國(guó)和世界其他國(guó)家都在密切關(guān)注日本。一年前，日本首相安倍晉三提出了所謂的“安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)”，希望借助一系列激進(jìn)政策，來(lái)結(jié)束長(zhǎng)達(dá)二十年的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)振興；如果日本經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)好轉(zhuǎn)，將提振全球經(jīng)濟(jì)。

????上周四，日本公布七至九月的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速大幅放緩，原因是新興市場(chǎng)需求下跌和國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)疲軟。據(jù)政府公布，該季度日本國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值（衡量一國(guó)生產(chǎn)的商品與服務(wù)最廣泛的指標(biāo)）增長(zhǎng)速度為1.9%，而之前兩個(gè)季度的增速分別為4.3%和3.8%。

????日本財(cái)務(wù)大臣麻生太郎在上周的國(guó)會(huì)上曾表示：“日本不能依賴出口。我們必須以國(guó)內(nèi)需求帶動(dòng)增長(zhǎng)。我們未能預(yù)料到歐洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)困境會(huì)持續(xù)如此長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間，而中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度也從8%下降到7%?！?/p>

????日本周四公布的疲軟的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，并不代表安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)沒(méi)有效果，但這也突出了日本總體規(guī)劃中缺失的一環(huán)：移民政策改革。

????在上周發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告中，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾（Standard & Poor's）全球首席經(jīng)濟(jì)師保羅?希爾德表示，日本可以通過(guò)引進(jìn)更多外國(guó)勞動(dòng)力加快經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度。多年來(lái)，日本人口在持續(xù)減少。2010年，日本總?cè)丝跒?.289億人，預(yù)計(jì)至2048年，日本人口將低于1億人。然而，日本政府并不愿意更多外國(guó)人的涌入，安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中更是對(duì)移民政策改革方案只字未提。

????誠(chéng)然，日本為結(jié)束通貨緊縮采取了許多大膽的措施。物價(jià)持續(xù)下跌，使得工資水平停滯不前甚至有所下降，但越來(lái)越多的投資者相信，這種狀況很快將有所好轉(zhuǎn)。高盛資產(chǎn)管理公司（Goldman Sachs Asset Management）在今年10月份，對(duì)1,000位日本零售業(yè)投資者進(jìn)行了調(diào)查，其中一半以上的受訪者（56%）表示，他們預(yù)計(jì)通貨緊縮很快將會(huì)結(jié)束，物價(jià)將適度上漲，而有21%的受訪者擔(dān)心通貨膨脹過(guò)高的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

????日本的問(wèn)題有更深層次的原因。日本人口出生率目前為每名婦女生育1.39名兒童，達(dá)到歷史最低。工資水平多年停滯不前，使日本男性對(duì)另一半的吸引力下降，由于經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性，結(jié)婚和生育的時(shí)間也被推遲。此外，養(yǎng)育孩子的成本和負(fù)擔(dān)過(guò)高，尤其是在城市，公立日托中心嚴(yán)重不足。

????而這將導(dǎo)致適齡勞動(dòng)人口的巨大缺口。根據(jù)安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)，決策者們希望日本在未來(lái)十年能保持2%的年均增長(zhǎng)速度。之前十年，日本的年均經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度為0.8%。而希爾德認(rèn)為，要想實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)，日本必須解決勞動(dòng)人口減少的問(wèn)題。

????日本一直在努力提高人口出生率，但即使從現(xiàn)在開(kāi)始人口出生率有所提高，也至少需要經(jīng)過(guò)一代人之后，才能解決人口問(wèn)題。希爾德表示，一個(gè)更快捷的辦法是改革移民政策。

????移民會(huì)增加人口，而且移民更有可能生育更多孩子。允許更多外國(guó)人移民，還可以鼓勵(lì)更多女性繼續(xù)工作。這是困擾日本多年的問(wèn)題，因?yàn)槿毡九酝诼殬I(yè)發(fā)展與照顧家庭之間左右為難。希爾德表示，明智的移民政策將放松對(duì)托幼機(jī)構(gòu)的勞動(dòng)力限制，為職場(chǎng)女性創(chuàng)造更多便利條件。

????這種觀點(diǎn)得到了許多人的支持，但在日本政界，這依然是一個(gè)非常敏感的問(wèn)題。因?yàn)槿毡菊蜆O力反對(duì)引進(jìn)更多外國(guó)勞動(dòng)力。但根據(jù)未來(lái)十年日本經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展情況，這個(gè)問(wèn)題或許將變得不再那么敏感。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????翻譯：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????The U.S. and the rest of the world have been watching Japan closely. Nearly a year ago, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe launched what has been dubbed "Abenomics," an aggressive plan to revive its economy from a two-decades long slump; the hope is that if Japan turns around, it could, for the first in a long time, lift the global economy.

????On Thursday, Japan's economy slowed sharply in the three-month period ended September, as demand from emerging markets fell and consumption at home weakened. The country's gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the economy, grew at an annualized rate of 1.9%, compared with 4.3% and 3.8%, respectively, during the previous two quarters, the government said.

????"Japan cannot rely on exports. We have to pursue domestic demand-led growth," said Finance Minister Taro Aso during a parliamentary session last week. "We didn't expect economic woes in Europe to last for so long, while China's economy has also slowed down to a growth rate of 7% from 8%."

????Japan's weaker data on Thursday doesn't suggest Abenomics isn't working, but it does highlight what's missing in Japan's master plan: immigration reform.

????In a report released last week, Standard & Poor's global chief economist Paul Sheard said Japan could accelerate the pace of economic growth by letting more foreign workers in. Japan's population has been declining for years. It was at 128.9 million people in 2010 and is set to fall below the 100 million mark in 2048, but Japan has been reluctant to allow more foreigners in and there's hardly any mention of such plans under Abenomics.

????To be sure, Japan has made bold moves to end deflation. Years of falling prices have kept wages stagnant or declining, but more and more investors are now convinced that could soon turn around. According to an October survey of 1,000 Japanese retail investors by Goldman Sachs Asset Management, more than half of respondents (56%) said they expect deflation to end soon and prices to start rising moderately, while 21% worry about the risks of too much inflation.

????Japan's problems run deeper. Its birth rate, currently 1.39 children per woman, has sunk to record lows. Years of stagnant wages have made Japanese men less attractive to potential partners, and couples have delayed getting married and having children because of economic uncertainties. What's more, the costs and burden of parenthood are high, as there's also a big shortage of public day care centers, especially in cities.

????All this translates to a huge shortage of working-age people. Under Abenomics, policymakers hope the country would grow an average of 2% a year over the next decade, compared with an average of 0.8% a year over the previous decade. If that's really going to happen, Japan will need to tackle its declining workforce, Sheard says.

????Japan has been trying to raise its birth rate, but even if it successfully did that tomorrow, it will take at least a generation before it solves its demographic problems. A shortcut cure would be immigration reform, Sheard says.

????Immigrants grow the population, plus they are more likely to have more children. And allowing more foreigners in could also encourage more women to stay in their careers -- a problem that's plagued Japan for years as women struggle to pursue a career while raising a family. Sheard says a smart immigration policy would ease labor restrictions over childcare facilities, helping to make it easier for working women.

????Others have supported this idea, but it remains a deeply touchy topic for Japanese politicians who have opposed bringing in more foreign workers. But depending how Japan's economy fares over the next several years, that idea may not be so far-fetched.