時(shí)候到了,歐洲銀行業(yè)該瘦身了
????擺脫這個(gè)爛攤子的最好辦法也許是直接出售資產(chǎn)。這種做法將降低它們手頭所需持有資金的規(guī)模,因?yàn)橘Y產(chǎn)規(guī)??s減將導(dǎo)致資本撥備公式中的分母縮小。歐洲的銀行共持有約46萬(wàn)億歐元的資產(chǎn),因此它們有很多家當(dāng)可以出售。但是,在縮減資產(chǎn)規(guī)模上,它們一直有所保留。今年以來(lái),歐洲銀行售出資產(chǎn)的總規(guī)模僅為460億歐元,僅占它們總資產(chǎn)的1%。 ????因此,歐洲的銀行如果希望滿足資本要求,同時(shí)填補(bǔ)不良貸款留下的缺口,它們?cè)谖磥?lái)數(shù)月將需要加緊出售資產(chǎn)。普華永道會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所估計(jì),明年歐洲各大銀行可能將出售總計(jì)多達(dá)2.4萬(wàn)億歐元的資產(chǎn)。雖然這與今年資產(chǎn)出售規(guī)模相比有大幅上升,但可能仍不足以滿足新的資本要求。 ????太多的資產(chǎn)同時(shí)入市可能會(huì)適得其反,因?yàn)樗鼤?huì)導(dǎo)致資產(chǎn)價(jià)格暴跌。歐洲央行可能會(huì)通過(guò)成立一家清算信托公司,轉(zhuǎn)移銀行資產(chǎn)供日后出售,從而防止大規(guī)模資產(chǎn)賤賣的現(xiàn)象。銀行將可以把資產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移至資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表外,而不必進(jìn)行有可能讓情況惡化的減記。 ????趕早出售資產(chǎn)的銀行有望獲得最好的價(jià)格。今年美國(guó)和亞洲的投資者已在歐洲大陸投入了數(shù)十億資金,押注歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇,因此它們對(duì)任何一種歐洲投資工具都可能垂涎欲滴。如果將近期慘淡的收益報(bào)告視為一種指標(biāo),那么很可能有足夠資產(chǎn)標(biāo)的來(lái)供投資者挑挑揀揀。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)) ????譯者:默默 |
????Probably the best way to get out of this mess would be for the banks to simply offload assets. This would lower the amount of capital they would need to have on hand, since it shrinks the denominator in the capital buffer equation. Banks in Europe have around 46 trillion euros in assets, so there is plenty of stuff they can sell. But they have been reticent to shrink. So far this year, European banks have sold just 46 billion euros in assets, equating to a tiny 1% of total assets. ????As such, the European banks will need to step up their asset sales in the next few months if they hope to meet their capital requirements and fill the holes left by failed loans. PwC estimates that the banks could offload some 2.4 trillion euros next year. While that is a significant bump up from sales this year, it still might not be enough to meet the new capital requirements. ????But too many assets hitting the market at the same time could be counterproductive as it would send asset prices tumbling. The ECB could prevent a massive fire sale by creating a resolution trust corporation that the banks could transfer assets to for sale at a later date. This would get the assets off the banks' balance sheets without having to take a nasty write-down, which would make the situation even worse. ????It seems like the earliest movers will be able to gain the best prices for their assets. American and Asian investors have poured billions into the continent this year betting on an economic recovery in the region, so they will probably be hungry for any kind of European investment vehicle. If the recent dismal earnings reports are any measure, then there will probably be plenty of assets for investors to pick through. |