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大預(yù)測(cè):美國(guó)債務(wù)上限危機(jī)的4個(gè)恐怖情形

大預(yù)測(cè):美國(guó)債務(wù)上限危機(jī)的4個(gè)恐怖情形

Stephen Gandel 2013-10-09
美國(guó)債務(wù)違約可能會(huì)引發(fā)一系列災(zāi)難性的后果,甚至可能導(dǎo)致美國(guó)金融系統(tǒng)徹底崩盤。而這場(chǎng)危機(jī)到底會(huì)如何展開?4種情形最有可能出現(xiàn)。

????瘋狂回購(gòu)

????還記得《大而不倒》(Too Big to Fail)電影中的那一段嗎?高盛(Goldman Sachs)CEO勞埃德?布萊克費(fèi)恩(伊萬(wàn)?漢德勒飾)正在和漢克?保爾森(威廉?赫特)說話,保爾森說,“我回頭打給你,通用電氣(GE) CEO杰夫?伊梅爾特打電話進(jìn)來(lái)了,”布萊克費(fèi)恩說:“伊梅爾特到底為什么打電話給你?”

????原因是回購(gòu)。美國(guó)國(guó)債支撐著所謂的回購(gòu)市場(chǎng),這是銀行和企業(yè)經(jīng)常用到的隔夜拆借市場(chǎng)的主要抵押品來(lái)源。有些人擔(dān)心,違約的美國(guó)國(guó)債不會(huì)再被視為合格的抵押品,將限制短期借貸。我們至少會(huì)看到貸款利率飆升,使得貸款不那么有吸引力。2011年8月曾經(jīng)短暫地出現(xiàn)過這種情況。

????作為短期美國(guó)國(guó)債的重要持有人,貨幣市場(chǎng)基金可能也會(huì)遇到麻煩。如果投資者擔(dān)心短期美國(guó)國(guó)債,他們可能會(huì)撤出貨幣市場(chǎng)基金。這些基金是商業(yè)票據(jù)市場(chǎng)的主要供應(yīng)者,而商業(yè)票據(jù)市場(chǎng)是大企業(yè)獲得融資的另外一個(gè)重要來(lái)源。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))???

????Repo madness

????Remember the part in the movie version of Too Big to Fail when the guy playing Goldman Sachs's CEO Lloyd Blankfein (Evan Handler) is talking to Hank Paulson (William Hurt) and Paulson says "I'll call you back because GE CEO Jeff Immelt is calling." And Blankfein says "Why the heck is Immelt calling?"

????The reason was repos. Treasury securities underpin the so-called repo market, the main source of collateral for the overnight lending market that is often tapped by banks and corporations. Some are worried that the defaulted government bonds would no longer be considered good collateral, restricting short-term lending. At the very least we could see a spike in lending rates, making it less attractive to borrow. That's what happened briefly in August 2011.

????Money market funds, which are one of the big holders of short-term Treasuries, could also have problems. If investors get nervous about short-term Treasuries they could pull out of money market funds as well. And the funds are the main contributors to the commercial paper market, another important source of funding for large corporations.

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