????直至去年，黃金價(jià)格已經(jīng)連續(xù)上漲至少11年。這種貴金屬讓包括黃金投資者和政客在內(nèi)的所有人產(chǎn)生了這樣一種想法，即美國(guó)應(yīng)該回歸金本位制度。但如今他們很可能會(huì)感到緊張，因?yàn)榻饍r(jià)已經(jīng)進(jìn)入熊市，今年以來跌幅已經(jīng)達(dá)到了22%。

????而且，未來形勢(shì)將會(huì)變得更加糟糕，投資者正在關(guān)注美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（Federal Reserve）是否會(huì)縮減經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃的規(guī)模，即量化寬松。高盛（Goldman Sachs）分析師表示，金價(jià)下跌將一直持續(xù)到2014年，屆時(shí)可能會(huì)跌破每盎司1,000美元，創(chuàng)下自2009年初以來的新低。這個(gè)變化將扭轉(zhuǎn)從2009年初到2011年秋天之間的趨勢(shì)。在此期間，金價(jià)從800美元穩(wěn)步上漲到了1,900上方。17日上午，紐約的黃金交易價(jià)格為每盎司1,314.50美元。

????無論美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)是否會(huì)在本周或隨后縮減購(gòu)債規(guī)模，其他一些因素都可能會(huì)推動(dòng)金價(jià)走低。

????通脹，哪里來的通脹？

????通常情況下，黃金是對(duì)沖通貨膨脹的一種手段。金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)以來，包括美國(guó)和歐洲國(guó)家在內(nèi)的很多經(jīng)濟(jì)體都已經(jīng)啟動(dòng)了多輪量化寬松。它導(dǎo)致大多數(shù)發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的貨幣供應(yīng)上漲了兩倍，很多人擔(dān)心這對(duì)通脹來說是火上澆油。

????除非大家消耗的全都是咸肉，否則隨著美國(guó)和世界其他國(guó)家遠(yuǎn)離金融深淵，通脹已經(jīng)不再是一個(gè)問題。事實(shí)上，全球通脹率目前正處于較低的水平，而且還在進(jìn)一步下滑。Project Syndicate網(wǎng)站今年6月曾經(jīng)發(fā)布了一篇文章，紐約大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家努里爾?魯比尼在文中預(yù)測(cè)，金價(jià)到2015年可能會(huì)下跌到每盎司1,000美元。

????魯比尼因成功預(yù)測(cè)金融危機(jī)的到來而獲得了“末日博士”的綽號(hào)，他指出，盡管貨幣供應(yīng)量擴(kuò)大了，但由于銀行以額外儲(chǔ)備金的方式來儲(chǔ)備貨幣，因此貨幣的實(shí)際交易量并不大。

????然而，如果銀行開始放貸，通脹的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)就可能上升。即使那樣，黃金仍然面臨其他打壓因素。

????黃金也許是安全的，但它帶來的回報(bào)在哪里？

????跟其他資產(chǎn)不同的是，黃金并不提供收入。金融危機(jī)之后最慘淡的那些歲月里，這個(gè)問題一直遭到了忽視。但既然現(xiàn)在經(jīng)濟(jì)情況正在改善，那么黃金就必須跟其他投資品種，比如股票、債券以及房地產(chǎn)等在回報(bào)方面進(jìn)行競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。

????由于伯南克暗示美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能很快就會(huì)縮減購(gòu)債規(guī)模，銀行利率已經(jīng)大幅飆升，而且有望進(jìn)一步上升。這個(gè)變化生生將黃金推到了困境當(dāng)中，因?yàn)橥顿Y者紛紛開始拋售這種貴金屬，以尋求在股票、債券以及其他投資上獲得更高的回報(bào)。

????“購(gòu)買黃金的時(shí)機(jī)是在現(xiàn)金和債券的實(shí)際回報(bào)率為負(fù)值以及在下滑的時(shí)候，”魯比尼寫道。 “不過，對(duì)于美國(guó)和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景更加積極的展望意味著，隨著時(shí)間的推移，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和其他央行將退出量化寬松和零利率政策，這意味著實(shí)際利率將會(huì)上升，而不是下滑?！?/p>

????敘利亞危機(jī)已經(jīng)平息（至少目前如此）

????人們普遍認(rèn)為黃金是一種投資避風(fēng)港，危機(jī)爆發(fā)時(shí)，投資者會(huì)紛紛涌向這種貴金屬，把它作為一種安全的價(jià)值儲(chǔ)存手段。

????敘利亞爆發(fā)的沖突一直牽動(dòng)著市場(chǎng)，有可能會(huì)推高金價(jià)。然而，至少?gòu)哪壳翱磥?，針?duì)敘利亞的軍事打擊不太可能發(fā)生，因?yàn)閿⒗麃喴呀?jīng)接受了俄羅斯的提議，打算放棄化學(xué)武器，交由聯(lián)合國(guó)控制。據(jù)摩根大通（JPMorgan）分析師分析，敘利亞是否會(huì)認(rèn)真對(duì)待這項(xiàng)提議仍有待觀察，但它確實(shí)讓美國(guó)實(shí)施軍事打擊的可能性變小，至少在短期內(nèi)是這樣。

????Up until last year, gold prices rose for at least 11 years in a row. The precious metal spawned a frenzy among everyone from gold bugs to politicos who think America should return to the gold standard. But today they're likely feeling nervous. Gold prices have entered bear market territory, having fallen by 22% this year.

????And it's going to get worse as investors zero in on whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will scale down its stimulus program, called quantitative easing. Goldman Sachs (GS) analysts say gold will continue dropping into 2014, possibly falling below $1,000 an ounce, a level not seen since early 2009. This is a reverse from gold's steady rise from $800 an ounce in early 2009 to more than $1,900 in the fall of 2011; on Tuesday morning, it was trading at $1,314.50 in New York.

????Regardless whether the Fed tapers its bond-buying program this week or later, a few other factors will likely drive prices lower.

????Inflation. What inflation?

????Gold is typically a hedge against rapidly rising prices. Since the financial crisis, many economies from U.S. to Europe have launched several rounds of quantitative easing. The supply of money tripled in most advanced economies, and many worried it would effectively stoke inflation.

????Unless all you consume is bacon, inflation hasn't been a problem as the U.S. and the rest of the world retreats from financial abyss. In fact, global inflation is actually low and falling further. In a June article in Project Syndicate, New York University economist Nouriel Roubini forecast that gold could fall to $1,000 by 2015.

????Roubini, nicknamed Dr. Doom for his forecasts of the financial crisis, noted that even though the supply of money has expanded it hasn't changed very many hands, largely because banks have been hoarding cash in the form of excess reserves.

????If banks start lending more, however, the risks of inflation could rise. Even then, gold faces other headwinds.

????It may be safe, but where are the returns?

????Unlike other assets, gold provides no income. That was an overlooked issue during the worst years following the financial crisis, but now that the economy is improving, gold must compete with returns on other investments, such as stocks, bonds, and real estate.

????Since Bernanke hinted it could scale back the Fed's bond-buying program soon, interest rates have surged, and they're poised to rise further. This effectively puts gold in a tough spot, as investors sell off the precious metal seeking higher returns in stocks, bonds, and other investments.

????"The time to buy gold is when the real returns on cash and bonds are negative and falling," Roubini writes. "But the more positive outlook about the U.S. and the global economy implies that over time the Federal Reserve and other central banks will exit from quantitative easing and zero policy rates, which means that real rates will rise, rather than fall."

????Crisis in Syria has subsided (at least for now)

????Gold is widely viewed as a safe-haven investment. When crisis arises, investors flock to the precious metal as a safe store of value.

????Markets have been zeroing in on conflicts in Syria, which could potentially push gold higher. At least for now, however, a military strike looks less likely as the country has accepted Russia's proposal for its chemical weapons to be given up for U.N. control. It remains to be seen if Syria is serious about its offer, but it does make U.S. military strikes less likely, at least in the near-term, according to JPMorgan analysts.