????正是這兩個(gè)因素造成了市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)加大，個(gè)別細(xì)分市場(chǎng)的流動(dòng)性失調(diào)。此外，我們還發(fā)現(xiàn)中間商和一些大投資者的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承受能力正在下降。

????它或許只是市場(chǎng)的一種臨時(shí)現(xiàn)象。畢竟，日經(jīng)指數(shù)在過(guò)去七個(gè)月反彈了57%，最近的下跌又能產(chǎn)生什么特殊的影響？而且，美國(guó)十年期國(guó)債基本保持了去年的幅度，所以國(guó)債當(dāng)前的水平有什么奇怪的？

????臨時(shí)現(xiàn)象確實(shí)是一種可能，但它是可能性最高的解釋嗎？對(duì)此，我表示懷疑。相反，市場(chǎng)可能正在發(fā)出更深層次變化的信號(hào)。

????我們希望最近的市場(chǎng)變化是代表了我們期待已久的兩個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)變：從輔助式增長(zhǎng)向真正的由私營(yíng)行業(yè)引領(lǐng)的增長(zhǎng)轉(zhuǎn)變；從以政府購(gòu)買實(shí)現(xiàn)的金融穩(wěn)定向結(jié)構(gòu)穩(wěn)健的穩(wěn)定轉(zhuǎn)變。

????如果這兩種轉(zhuǎn)變得以實(shí)現(xiàn)，它將意味著風(fēng)險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)未來(lái)將不再依賴央行的高度試驗(yàn)性政策。相反，日益改善的經(jīng)濟(jì)與金融基本面將穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)，進(jìn)而穩(wěn)定當(dāng)前人為的價(jià)格，同時(shí)推動(dòng)價(jià)格進(jìn)一步上漲。

????可問(wèn)題是，目前的數(shù)據(jù)無(wú)法為這種假設(shè)提供充分的支持。

????美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正在繼續(xù)恢復(fù)，但經(jīng)濟(jì)逃逸速度依然令人難以捉摸。歐洲繼續(xù)處于衰退之中，增長(zhǎng)引擎沒(méi)有顯示出任何改觀的跡象。日本剛剛宣布促增長(zhǎng)的結(jié)構(gòu)改革。中國(guó)增長(zhǎng)速度放緩。全球環(huán)境這么不穩(wěn)定，因此，其他新興大國(guó)（如巴西）也在努力管理各自國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)。

????我擔(dān)心，最近的變化并不代表積極的轉(zhuǎn)變，而是代表著投資者對(duì)于央行能力和效率的信任正逐漸受到侵蝕。如果這種現(xiàn)象最先出現(xiàn)在日本，并不意外，因?yàn)槿毡久媾R一系列艱難的初始條件，而且政策的可信度正處于歷史最低水平。

????如果我的擔(dān)心變成現(xiàn)實(shí)，只能期望在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月內(nèi)，央行在努力恢復(fù)話語(yǔ)權(quán)的時(shí)候，能夠更加積極。日本央行和歐洲央行將繼續(xù)推出非常規(guī)政策，而許多人預(yù)測(cè)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在即將召開(kāi)的政策會(huì)議上不會(huì)對(duì)QE3政策實(shí)行減速。

????這些額外的措施是否能夠帶動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本的新一輪強(qiáng)勢(shì)反彈，我們?nèi)孕枋媚恳源?。但有一點(diǎn)非常明確，如果沒(méi)有穩(wěn)定的增速回升，這些政策將帶來(lái)更大的市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)，甚至威脅央行在更長(zhǎng)時(shí)期內(nèi)的可信度。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????本文作者默罕默德?埃爾-埃里安為美國(guó)太平洋投資管理公司CEO兼聯(lián)合首席投資官。

????譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????Together, these two factors have contributed to higher market volatility and more patchy liquidity in certain market segments. We are also seeing a reduction in risk tolerance among intermediaries and some large investors.

????All this may be nothing more than a market blip. After all, what is particularly special after the recent drops in the Nikkei given that this index has returned 57% in the last seven months? And what is so peculiar about the current level of the 10-year Treasury given that it is still broadly consistent with the range of the last year?

????A blip is certainly a possibility, but I doubt it is the most probable interpretation. Rather, markets may be signaling a deeper shift.

????The hope is that recent market behavior is indicative of two eagerly-anticipated handoffs: from assisted-growth to genuine private-sector led growth; and from purchased financial stability to structurally-sound stability.

????These two shifts, if and when they materialize, would mean that risk markets no longer depend on the highly experimental policies of central banks. Instead, they would be solidly anchored by improving economic and financial fundamentals – which would validate currently-artificial prices and allow them to go higher.

????The problem is that recent data do not sufficiently support this hypothesis as yet.

????The U.S. economy continues to heal, but economic escape velocity remains elusive. Europe is in recession and shows few signs of revamping its growth engines. Japan is still to announce growth-enhancing structural reforms. China has slowed. Some other large emerging countries (e.g., Brazil) are struggling to manage well their economies in the context of such a fluid global environment.

????I worry that, rather than signal positive handoffs, recent changes are indicative of a gradual erosion in the trust that investors have placed in the power and effectiveness of central banks. It would be natural for this phenomenon to start in Japan as the country faces a difficult set of initial conditions and the lowest historical level of policy credibility.

????Should this indeed be the case, look for central banks to be even more aggressive in the next few months as they try to regain control of the narrative. The Bank of Japan and the European Central bank would go further down the road of unconventional policies, and the Fed would not taper QE3 in its upcoming policy meeting as some expect.

????It remains to be seen whether these additional steps would be sufficient to launch yet another robust rally in risk assets. But what is clear is that, absent a solid pickup in growth, they will fuel greater market volatility and threaten even more the longer-term credibility of central banks.

????Mohamed A. El-Erian is the CEO and co-chief investment officer of PIMCO.