成人小说亚洲一区二区三区,亚洲国产精品一区二区三区,国产精品成人精品久久久,久久综合一区二区三区,精品无码av一区二区,国产一级a毛一级a看免费视频,欧洲uv免费在线区一二区,亚洲国产欧美中日韩成人综合视频,国产熟女一区二区三区五月婷小说,亚洲一区波多野结衣在线

立即打開
市場波動性可能進(jìn)一步加劇

市場波動性可能進(jìn)一步加劇

Mohamed A. El-Erian 2013-06-05
市場波動性正在增大,而某些地方的市場流動性正變得越來越困難,焦慮情緒也在日益加重。最近的變化可能意味著,投資者對于各國央行能力和效率的信任正逐漸受到侵蝕,這對未來的市場不是一個好消息。

????大量關(guān)注細(xì)分市場上周的交易的投資者肯定注意到了一種細(xì)微的變化:波動性正在增大,而某些地方的市場流動性正變得越來越難,相關(guān)性正在變化,而焦慮情緒也在日益加重。此外,這些混亂似乎并沒有同時影響所有細(xì)分市場,而是從流動性最差的市場逐漸向流動性較好的市場蔓延。

????這可能只是一種暫時的現(xiàn)象。畢竟,過去兩年也出現(xiàn)過類似的情況。但它也可能意味著更深層次的變化;如果同我所懷疑的那樣,這種相關(guān)聯(lián)的潛在變化可能在長期來看是有利的,但也有可能代表著波動性更大的時期即將來臨。

????這些問題的答案意義重大。它們要么意味著投資者應(yīng)該期待風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)將重新開始強(qiáng)勁反彈,要么意味著市場將面臨調(diào)整的可能性;而且,這些答案將對增長和就業(yè)前景產(chǎn)生重要影響。

????那么,我們先來看其中的一些基本問題,首先來看日本:

????對于日本戰(zhàn)后最大膽的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策試驗,投資者們的反應(yīng)是,這些政策是過去幾個月來風(fēng)險資本反彈的重要因素。日本央行(Bank of Japan )大規(guī)模購買證券的舉動以及擴(kuò)張性的財政政策,再加上進(jìn)行有效結(jié)構(gòu)改革的可能性,這些措施吸引了全球投資者增持日本的股票和高風(fēng)險的企業(yè)債券,致使兩者的價格越來越高。

????但過去幾天,日本已經(jīng)難以持續(xù)發(fā)出建設(shè)性的信號。自5月22日以來,日經(jīng)指數(shù)(Nikkei)下跌了12%,日跌幅曾達(dá)到7%、5%和3%。日本政府債券的行為非常不穩(wěn)定,變得越來越反復(fù)無常。而且,日元的單向波動也在減弱。

????日本政府對此似乎非常擔(dān)憂,而且也有理由擔(dān)憂。

????日本政府此次進(jìn)行了一次大規(guī)模的政策試驗。如果這次的嘗試不能帶領(lǐng)日本走出它長達(dá)25年的增長停滯泥潭,之后出現(xiàn)金融震蕩的風(fēng)險將進(jìn)一步加劇。

????實施了最初的政策措施后,日本政府現(xiàn)在只能“傾其所有”。除了繼續(xù)進(jìn)行更深入的試驗,影響市場定價和投資者行為外,它已別無選擇。目前有未經(jīng)確認(rèn)的消息稱,“日本1萬億美元的公共養(yǎng)老基金正在考慮增持日本股票?!倍毡狙胄忻媾R巨大壓力,必須更加明確和強(qiáng)勢。

????日本的不確定性所帶來的破壞性市場影響也引起了人們對于另外一個重要的市場政策支柱,也就是美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve Bank)大規(guī)模證券購買計劃的擔(dān)憂。

????華盛頓最近釋放的信號導(dǎo)致許多市場參與者相信,美聯(lián)儲將“退出”證券購買計劃,而金融市場將因此失去美聯(lián)儲提供的巨大支持,它所造成的影響在其他發(fā)達(dá)國家和新興市場的政府債券市場將非常明顯。

????Those trading in many market segments would have noticed a subtle change last week: Volatility is on the rise, liquidity is getting tougher in certain places, correlations are morphing, and anxiety has increased. Moreover, rather than impact all market segments simultaneously, such dislocations seem to be cascading gradually from the least liquid to the more liquid ones.

????This could well be just a blip. After all, we have had similar episodes in the last two years. Alternatively, it could be indicative of a deeper change; and, if it is (as I suspect), the related underlying shifts could be secularly beneficial or could well signal more volatile times ahead.

????The answers to these questions are consequential. They speak to whether investors should expect the strong rally in risk assets to resume or whether markets face the possibility of a correction; and they have an important influence on the prospects for growth and jobs.

????So let us take a look at some of the key issues, starting with Japan:

????Investor reaction to Japan's boldest post-war policy experiment has been an important contributor to the rally in risk assets over the last few months. The combination of large purchases of securities by the Bank of Japan and more expansionary fiscal policy, along with the possibility of meaningful structural reforms, has pushed investors around the world to augment their holdings of equities and risky corporate bonds at increasingly elevated prices.

????In the last few days, however, Japan is no longer emitting a consistently constructive signal. The Nikkei has fallen 12% since May 22, with some notable daily drops of 7%, 5% and 3%. The behavior of Japanese government bonds has been quite volatile and increasingly inconsistent. And the Yen is now less unidirectional.

????Japan's government seems worried about this, and it should be.

????The policy experiment is a huge one. If it fails to dislodge the country out of its 25-year growth malaise, the risk of subsequent financial disruptions would rise significantly.

????Having taken its initial policy measures, the Japanese government is now essentially "all in." It has no choice but to venture even deeper into experimental territory as it attempts to influence market pricing and investor behavior. Already there is an unconfirmed news report stating that "the nation's $1 trillion public pension fund is considering increasing its holdings in equities." For its part, the Bank of Japan is under pressure to be even more explicit and forceful.

????The disruptive market impact of uncertainties in Japan has been accompanied by concerns about another important policy prop for markets -- the large security purchases by America's Federal Reserve Bank.

????Recent signals out of Washington have led many market participants to believe that the Fed will be "tapering" its buying program, and thus reduce the enormous support it provides to financial markets. The result has been a sharp move upward in yields on U.S. government debt, the impact of which is visible in other government bond markets in both advanced and emerging countries.

掃描二維碼下載財富APP
国产一级a毛一级a看免费视频一区二区三区| 国产精品亚洲αv天堂无码| 手机国产乱子伦精品视频| 一级做a爰片久久毛片a片蜜桃| 国产在线精品福利大全| 97色婷婷成人综合在线观看| 成人区人妻精品一区二区三区| 公和熄洗澡三级中文字幕| 久久精品国产9久久综合| 四虎最新转跳入口网址| 性色AV一区二区三区天美传媒| 久久午夜夜伦鲁鲁片免费无码影视| 亚洲AV蜜桃永久无码精品| 国产成人99久久亚洲综合精品| 欧美亚洲精品一区二区| 中文字幕乱视频在线观看| 午夜无码免费福利视频网址| 自拍日韩 无码视频| 青春草无码精品视频| 色综合啪啪67194亚洲精品国产AV成拍色拍| 在线永久免费观看黄网站| 国产午夜成人久久无码一区二区| 国产99视频精品专区| 中文字幕日韩人妻不卡一区| 色偷偷一区二区三区视频| 亚洲熟妇中文字幕日产无码| 国产在线亚洲精品观看不卡| AV无码专区亚洲AVL在线观看| 亚洲精品国产AV现线| 国产成人精品一区二区视频| 亚洲精品国产精品国产| 人妻夜夜爽天天爽爽一区| 无码区国产区在线播放| 欧美日韩天堂一区二区三区| 亚洲一区二区三区AV无码| 国产三级久久久精品麻豆三级| 国产亚洲曝欧美不卡精品| 亚洲国产成人片在线观看直播| av免费午夜福利不卡片在线观看| 欧美日韩人妻精品系列一区二区三区| 搡老女人露脸精品视频在线观看|