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慈善賭局十年之約,巴菲特第一次反超

慈善賭局十年之約,巴菲特第一次反超

Carol Loomis 2013-01-28
2008年,沃倫?巴菲特和紐約投資管理公司Protégé設(shè)下一場十年慈善賭局,巴菲特堅信先鋒集團(tuán)的一只標(biāo)普指數(shù)基金能跑贏對方押注的5只對沖基金母基金。如今,賭局時間過半,巴菲特首次處于領(lǐng)先地位。一切都要感謝股市在2012年的出色表現(xiàn)。

????但去年《財富》雜志網(wǎng)站(Fortune.com)對此進(jìn)行報道時【《慈善賭局龜兔賽跑,巴菲特正迎頭趕上》(Buffett gains ground in hedge fund bet)】發(fā)現(xiàn),在利率下降的大環(huán)境下,零息債券表現(xiàn)如此之好,到2012年它的總價值就已然逼近100萬美元。

????鑒于這樣出色的表現(xiàn),如果巴菲特和Protégé修改賭局協(xié)議,或許最終慈善機(jī)構(gòu)拿到的捐款總額會超過100萬美元。如果巴菲特贏,Girls Inc. of Omaha將拿到這筆錢。如果勝利者是Protégé,Absolute Returns for Kids將拿到這筆錢。

????因此,在2012年底,這筆零息債券以近100萬美元售出。由巴菲特和Protégé商定,用這些錢購入巴菲特公司伯克希爾哈撒韋(Berkshire Hathaway)B股。自那以來,伯克希爾哈撒韋的股價出現(xiàn)了上漲,目前投資價值已顯著高于100萬美元。

????這只股票不會下跌?當(dāng)然會,但對于最終接受捐贈的慈善組織來說,結(jié)果不會有太大差別——因?yàn)榘头铺匾殉兄Z到賭局結(jié)束時,捐款額至少為100萬美元。持有股票的好處是,屆時受贈的慈善組織能夠拿到的捐款金額已經(jīng)無上限。它完全取決于從現(xiàn)在到賭局結(jié)束時巴菲特公司股票的表現(xiàn)。

????本文作者是《財富》雜志的資深編輯卡羅爾?盧米斯,她是沃倫?巴菲特的老朋友,也是伯克希爾哈撒韋公司的股東之一。并為沃倫?巴菲特致股東的年度公開信擔(dān)任編輯工作。(財富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:早稻米

????But as Fortune.com reported last year (Buffett gains ground in hedge fund bet), the zero-coupon bond proceeded to perform so splendidly in the prevailing environment of falling interest rates that by 2012 it was already worth almost $1 million.

????That remarkable result suggested to Buffett and Protégé that they could revise the terms of the bet and quite possibly get more than $1 million to the charity ultimately benefitting from the bet. That will be Girls Inc. of Omaha if Buffett wins and Absolute Returns for Kids if the victor is Protégé.

????So the zero-coupon bond was sold for nearly $1 million toward the close of 2012, and by agreement between Buffett and Protégé, the proceeds were put into the B stock of Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA). Berkshire's shares have risen since, and the current value of the investment is well over $1 million.

????And couldn't the stock fall? It certainly could, but that won't make a whit of difference to the winning charity—because Buffett has guaranteed that it will get at least $1 million at the end of the bet. On the upside, meanwhile, there's no ceiling on what the charity can walk away with. That depends simply on what happens to Berkshire's stock between now and the bet's conclusion.

????Fortune senior editor-at-large Carol Loomis, who wrote this article, is a longtime friend of Warren Buffett's, a Berkshire Hathaway shareholder, and editor of his annual letter to shareholders.

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