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華爾街看好下半年

華爾街看好下半年

Byron Wien 2012-09-10
夏末時分,華爾街對于未來總體樂觀。很多人認為,美國經(jīng)濟有很多有利因素。樓市觸底,油價很可能進一步下跌(因為北美產(chǎn)量增加,國際需求下降),資產(chǎn)負債表強勁,生產(chǎn)率提高令美國制造業(yè)的成本效率極高。遍地都是便宜的股票。

????今年,很多人認為,美國經(jīng)濟有很多有利因素。樓市觸底,油價很可能進一步下跌(因為北美產(chǎn)量增加,國際需求下降),資產(chǎn)負債表強勁,生產(chǎn)率提高令美國制造業(yè)的成本效率極高。遍地都是便宜的股票。很多人預(yù)計美國經(jīng)濟從現(xiàn)在到明年8月的經(jīng)濟增速可能達到3%,雖然也有小部分人認為2012年出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟衰退的可能性依然存在。有些人認為,與“財政懸崖”相關(guān)的加稅可能導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟放緩。我們討論了曾經(jīng)紛紛向海外轉(zhuǎn)移的美國制造業(yè)會不會有相當(dāng)一部分重返美國本土,得出的結(jié)論是,不太可能出現(xiàn)大規(guī)模的制造業(yè)復(fù)興,雖然美國工人的生產(chǎn)率得到了提高,亞洲在人均時薪方面仍有顯著優(yōu)勢。在知識型和社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)行業(yè)中,創(chuàng)新的熱情極高,但人們普遍認同這些領(lǐng)域內(nèi)公司的飛速增長不太可能明顯改善美國的失業(yè)率問題。沒有受到良好教育、沒有一技之長的工人可能很難找到正式工作。很多失業(yè)者需要重新培訓(xùn),但此類資金似乎有限。房地產(chǎn)建設(shè)的重新繁榮或許能為沒有多少專業(yè)技能的失業(yè)者提供一些工作,但一位房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的人士指出,這一領(lǐng)域的科技也在不斷進步,對建筑工人的資質(zhì)要求提高了。

????在今年的三場午餐會上,大多數(shù)人預(yù)計標準普爾500指數(shù)年底前將達到1,500點。有些人甚至認為到明年8月可能達到1,600點。少數(shù)人認為12個月內(nèi)該指數(shù)將回到1,250點(即今年年初的水平)。

????譯者:早稻米

????Many thought that the United States economy had a lot going for it. Housing was bottoming, oil prices had a good chance of declining further because of increased North American production and reduced international demand, balance sheets were strong and productivity improvements had made American manufacturing extremely cost-efficient. There were plenty of cheap stocks around. Quite a few thought the economy could show growth of 3% between now and next August, although a small number believed the possibility of a recession in 2012 was real. Some thought the rising taxes associated with the "fiscal cliff" might be responsible for the slowdown. We debated whether manufacturing that had been relocated abroad would come back to a significant degree and concluded that a major renaissance was unlikely because Asia still had a considerable advantage in terms of hourly earnings per worker, although American workers were more productive. There was a lot of enthusiasm for innovation in knowledge-based and social networking industries, but there was general agreement that the impressive growth of companies in these fields was not likely to make a major impact on the U.S. unemployment problem. Those workers without technology skills would have a tough time finding permanent employment. Many of those out of work required retraining, and there seemed to be limited funds available for that. A revival of housing construction could provide some jobs for the less-skilled unemployed, but one of the real estate people pointed out that technology was moving forward there as well, putting increased demands on the qualifications of construction workers.

????At all three sessions, most of the group thought the Standard & Poor's 500 would hit 1500 before year-end. A few even thought 1600 was possible by next August. A small minority saw the index returning to 1250 (where it started the year) within twelve months.

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