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華爾街看好下半年

華爾街看好下半年

Byron Wien 2012-09-10
夏末時(shí)分,華爾街對(duì)于未來(lái)總體樂(lè)觀。很多人認(rèn)為,美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)有很多有利因素。樓市觸底,油價(jià)很可能進(jìn)一步下跌(因?yàn)楸泵喇a(chǎn)量增加,國(guó)際需求下降),資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表強(qiáng)勁,生產(chǎn)率提高令美國(guó)制造業(yè)的成本效率極高。遍地都是便宜的股票。

????幾十年來(lái),每年8月我都會(huì)在周五組織一系列的“基準(zhǔn)”午餐會(huì),邀請(qǐng)夏日在紐約長(zhǎng)島東部度周末的專業(yè)投資者們出席。每年三次午餐會(huì),約有75人出席,包括對(duì)沖基金、私募股權(quán)、房地產(chǎn)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資界的領(lǐng)袖人物。其中不乏億萬(wàn)富翁,其他人的資產(chǎn)凈值即便還未達(dá)到這樣高的水平,但他們的觀點(diǎn)在投資界也普遍受到尊重。

????過(guò)去兩年出席者的判斷絕對(duì)悲觀,回顧來(lái)看,我不得不懷疑,午餐會(huì)前幾周股市的表現(xiàn)情況對(duì)嘉賓們的觀點(diǎn)有多大影響。如果你還記得,2010年和2011年時(shí)盛行的一種說(shuō)法:“5月份就賣出,離開(kāi)市場(chǎng)”。但今年,美國(guó)股市于6月1日創(chuàng)下近期低點(diǎn),7、8月份股市是反彈的。

????這一切的背后,基本面并沒(méi)有顯著的改善。美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)新聞最多也只是喜憂參半。歐洲央行(ECB)仍在提供必要的流動(dòng)性,努力維系歐元在歐盟(European Union)地區(qū)的地位,但長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)解決歐洲頑疾所必須進(jìn)行的結(jié)構(gòu)性改革仍然沒(méi)有著落。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)顯然是在放緩,雖然普遍觀點(diǎn)依然是可能會(huì)“軟著陸”。但如果要讓中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)保持不低于7%的增速,顯然必須得采取強(qiáng)有力的財(cái)政和貨幣政策。美國(guó)大選結(jié)果依然不定,無(wú)論是哪個(gè)候選人當(dāng)選,當(dāng)選后的政策作為很大程度上都取決于美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)的構(gòu)成情況以及其妥協(xié)的意愿。投資者還面臨其他一些問(wèn)題,但總體來(lái)看,很難理解為什么美國(guó)股市的走勢(shì)會(huì)這么好。

????面對(duì)這樣的現(xiàn)實(shí),雖然美國(guó)股市上漲,專業(yè)投資者的反應(yīng)是繼續(xù)規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。因此,很多投資經(jīng)理的回報(bào)表現(xiàn)不如主要股指?,F(xiàn)在,這群人聚在一起,討論未來(lái)一年的情況。他們都在找理由,未來(lái)是繼續(xù)保持謹(jǐn)慎,還是變得更激進(jìn)一些。要知道,過(guò)去兩年在此類討論得出總體負(fù)面的結(jié)論后,第四季度美國(guó)股市表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁。或許,今年午餐會(huì)上投資者們總體樂(lè)觀的觀點(diǎn)意味著未來(lái)市場(chǎng)還會(huì)有更多麻煩。

????For several decades I have organized a series of "Benchmark" lunches on Fridays in August for serious investors who spend their summer weekends in eastern Long Island. About 75 attended the three sessions, including leaders in hedge funds, private equity, real estate and venture capital. There were many billionaires and many others whose net worth hasn't quite gotten there, but whose views are widely respected throughout the investment community.

????For the past two years the mood has been decidedly downbeat but, looking back on it, I have to wonder how much the performance of the equity market during the weeks leading up to the lunches had something to do with how the participants viewed the outlook. If you recall, the slogan "Sell in May and go away" worked pretty well in 2010 and 2011. This year, however, the United States market hit its recent low on June 1 and stocks traded higher during July and August.

????This has all taken place against background fundamentals that have not been particularly positive. Economic news in the U.S. has been mixed at best. While the European Central Bank (ECB) has been there to provide the liquidity necessary to keep the European Union together with the euro as its currency, the structural changes that would be necessary for any long-term solution to Europe's problems have not been implemented. China is clearly slowing, and while it is still the consensus that a "soft landing" is likely, it has become clear that strong policy measures on both the fiscal and monetary fronts will be necessary to keep the economy growing at 7% or more. The outcome of the U.S. election is uncertain, and much of what could be accomplished by either candidate will be dependent on the composition of Congress and its willingness to compromise. There are other problems facing investors, but looking at the full range of issues, it is hard to understand why the market is doing so well.

????Professional investors have responded to this reality by being risk averse throughout the year in spite of the market's rise. As a result, many money managers are underperforming the major indexes, and so, as the group assembled to discuss what might happen over the coming year, they were looking for reasons to maintain their caution or to become more aggressive, knowing that the generally negative conclusions of the discussions during the past two years were followed by strong equity performance in the fourth quarter. Perhaps the generally constructive view of investors at the sessions this year means more trouble for the markets lies ahead.

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