????對(duì)于許多人來說，夏季可能意味著愜意的生活，但對(duì)今年的科技股投資者來說就不是那么回事了。由于許多公司即將公布第二季度收益報(bào)告，最后一刻的不安情緒在許多投資者和分析師心里油然而生。

????自從7月4日獨(dú)立日假日歸來后，投資者見證了納斯達(dá)克綜合指數(shù)累計(jì)4%的跌幅，與此同時(shí)，科技類股中的許多大牌跌幅更大。微軟公司（Microsoft）下跌6%，IBM和思科（Cisco）均下跌7%，而英特爾（Intel）跌幅則達(dá)到了8%。在大多數(shù)情況下，科技類股的下跌都伴隨著分析師發(fā)布的相關(guān)公司第二季度業(yè)績(jī)可能弱于此前預(yù)期的預(yù)警。

????今年余下的時(shí)間，形勢(shì)似乎也不會(huì)明顯好轉(zhuǎn)。周四早盤，IT外包巨頭印孚瑟斯（Infosys）的股價(jià)下跌12%。此前該公司稱，其業(yè)務(wù)會(huì)在2012年下半年放緩，因來自銀行和其他企業(yè)的大訂單流失。印孚瑟斯首席執(zhí)行官史布萊說：“目前公司面臨的運(yùn)營環(huán)境比4月份時(shí)更為嚴(yán)峻。”

????最近這一波圍繞科技股的擔(dān)憂情緒并不是由某個(gè)單一主要因素造成的，而是幾個(gè)因素共同導(dǎo)致的：第二季度拖累歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)的金融動(dòng)蕩以及中國經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩；顛覆性技術(shù)的崛起打擊了適應(yīng)遲緩的大型科技公司；以及分析師們?cè)诓淮_定時(shí)期的偏樂觀傾向。

????規(guī)模居前的科技類公司長(zhǎng)期以來一直依賴全球市場(chǎng)，但在第二季度，主要市場(chǎng)都無一例外地面臨挑戰(zhàn)。美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)出現(xiàn)停滯的跡象，而中國經(jīng)濟(jì)也繼續(xù)降溫。但最令人擔(dān)憂的還是歐盟。歐盟的失業(yè)率已經(jīng)升至11%，部分成員國更是已經(jīng)再次陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

????歐盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人在解決債務(wù)危機(jī)方面一直行動(dòng)拖沓，導(dǎo)致企業(yè)界的不確定性情緒揮之不去，并促使許多消費(fèi)者紛紛暫停購買新產(chǎn)品。根據(jù)研究機(jī)構(gòu)Computer Economics進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查結(jié)果，31%的受訪公司計(jì)劃在未來一年削減IT運(yùn)營支出，而只有16%的受訪公司計(jì)劃提高相關(guān)支出。為了保障利潤，企業(yè)紛紛削減包括新技術(shù)開支在內(nèi)的各項(xiàng)成本。

????另外，全球IT研究和咨詢公司蓋特納（Gartner）的一份報(bào)告顯示，全球IT支出可能會(huì)由去年的3.5萬億美元逐步增至2012年的3.6萬億美元。蓋特納指出，特定科技領(lǐng)域的支出增長(zhǎng)將會(huì)領(lǐng)先其他領(lǐng)域。例如，今年云計(jì)算領(lǐng)域的IT支出將達(dá)到1,090億美元，高于2011年的910億美元。

????雖然這對(duì)于云計(jì)算企業(yè)是個(gè)利好消息，但對(duì)于其他科技巨頭來說并不一定是好苗頭。企業(yè)在云計(jì)算技術(shù)上投入資金是因?yàn)槠漭^安裝和維護(hù)傳統(tǒng)軟件系統(tǒng)更加高效、經(jīng)濟(jì)。但將資金投在更低成本的云系統(tǒng)上則意味著：投入在往往更加昂貴的自有軟件上的相關(guān)資金將會(huì)減少。包括甲骨文公司（Oracle）和IBM在內(nèi)的企業(yè)都在投資云計(jì)算，即使這樣做可能意味著犧牲在傳統(tǒng)程序上的投資。

????在企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者支出顯著的個(gè)人電腦行業(yè)，類似的顛覆也在發(fā)生。如今，人們?cè)谫徺I個(gè)人電腦時(shí)往往選擇購買平板電腦或亞洲企業(yè)生產(chǎn)的低成本個(gè)人電腦。蓋特納提供的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，總體上，第二季度個(gè)人電腦發(fā)貨量較上年同期下滑了0.1%，已經(jīng)減少到8,750萬臺(tái)。對(duì)于美國制造商來說，下滑幅度要嚴(yán)重得多：惠普電腦（HP）和戴爾電腦（Dell）第二季度的個(gè)人電腦發(fā)貨量均同比下跌了12%。

????面對(duì)這樣的發(fā)貨量數(shù)據(jù)，投資者很難相信科技類股會(huì)公布強(qiáng)勁的收益報(bào)告。事實(shí)上，有些公司已經(jīng)發(fā)出預(yù)警，告誡投資者不要過于樂觀。上周，高級(jí)微設(shè)備公司（Advanced Micro Devices）、美國應(yīng)用材料公司（Applied Materials）和Informatica都發(fā)布了盈利可能不及預(yù)期的預(yù)警。金融數(shù)據(jù)和軟件提供商Factset稱，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)（S&P 500）成分股公司中，已經(jīng)有24家公司發(fā)布了負(fù)面的第二季度收益預(yù)期（即預(yù)計(jì)收益低于當(dāng)前分析師的一致預(yù)期），較5年平均值高50%。

????如果這些還不足以讓人擔(dān)憂的話，再看看下面這組數(shù)據(jù)。Factset預(yù)計(jì)，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)成分股中的科技類公司第二季度收益增幅將達(dá)到3.6%。雖然這比標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)所有成分股公司3%的收益增幅要高，但完全要?dú)w功于蘋果公司（Apple）。若不計(jì)入蘋果公司的預(yù)期收益增幅，其他科技公司的平均收益將下跌2%。

????甚至有人擔(dān)心蘋果公司的盈利。BMO Capital的一位分析師稱，平板電腦銷量對(duì)筆記本電腦銷量的侵蝕可能正在負(fù)面影響高價(jià)MacBook筆記本的銷量。其他分析師則擔(dān)心，由于兼容LTE網(wǎng)絡(luò)的iPhone在今年秋季上市已經(jīng)幾乎板上釘釘，許多蘋果擁躉都在等待購買這款新iPhone，可能會(huì)放緩iPhone在未來幾個(gè)月的銷量。

????Summertime may be when the living is easy for many people, but not for tech investors this year. As the time draws near for many companies to report their second-quarter earnings, a last-minute sense of unease is setting in among investors and analysts.

????Since investors returned from their 4th of July holidays, the Nasdaq Composite has lost 4%, while many of the bigger names in tech have lost even more. Microsoft (MSFT) is down 6%, while IBM (IBM) and Cisco (CSCO) are off 7% and Intel (INTC) has fallen 8%. In most cases, the declines have been accompanied by analysts warning of a weaker second-quarter than they had previously expected.

????And things aren't looking much better for the rest of the year. Thursday morning, IT-outsourcing giant Infosys (INFY) fell 12% after the company warned that business would slow down in the second half of 2012, citing the loss of big contracts among banks and other companies. "The environment today for us is more challenging than what it was in April," said Infosys CEO S. D. Shitulal.

????There isn't one overriding reason for the recent round of tech jitters, but several. The financial turmoil that plagued Europe in the quarter, along with the cooling of China's economy; the rise of disruptive technologies that are hurting big tech companies that have been slow to adapt; and the tendency of analysts to be optimistic in times of uncertainty.

????The largest tech companies have long been dependent on global markets, but in the second quarter, every major market faced challenges. Economic growth showed signs of stalling in the U.S., while China's economy cooled. But the biggest concern was in the European Union, whereunemployment rose to 11% and some countries slipped back into recession.

????EU leaders have dragged their feet in solving the debt crisis, prolonging a sense of uncertainty among companies and prompting consumers to hold back on buying new gadgets. A survey by Computer Economics found that 31% of companies surveyed are planning to cut operational IT spending in the coming year, against 16% that plan to spend more. To shore up profits, companies are cutting costs, and that includes money for new technology.

????A separate report from Gartner said that global IT spending would rise incrementally to $3.6 trillion in 2012 from $3.5 trillion last year. Gartner noted that spending on some areas of tech will see more growth than others: Cloud computing, for example will receive $109 billion in IT spending this year, up from $91 billion in 2011.

????While that's good news for cloud companies, it's not necessarily good for other tech giants. Companies are spending on cloud technologies because it can be more efficient and cheaper than installing and maintaining older software systems. But money spent on lower-cost cloud systems means money not spent on proprietary software, which is often more expensive. Companies like Oracle (ORCL) and IBM are investing in cloud computing, even if it risks cannibalizing their older programs.

????A similar kind of disruption is happening in the PC industry, an area where companies and consumers spend heavily. When people are buying PCs they are buying tablets or low-cost PCs from Asian companies. Overall, PC shipments fell 0.1% in the second quarter from the same quarter in 2011, to 87.5 million, according to Gartner. For U.S. makers, the fall was much worse: HP (HPQ) and Dell (DELL) both shipped 12% fewer PCs in the second quarter.

????These are not the kind of numbers to encourage investors into believing tech stocks will post strong earnings. Already some of them have been signaling that investors shouldn't get too excited. In the past week, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Applied Materials (AMAT) and Informatica (INFA) warned of disappointing earnings. According to Factset, 24 companies in the S&P 500 issued negative guidance for the second quarter, 50% more than the five-year average.

????And if that's not worrying, consider this. Factset estimates that tech stocks in the S&P 500 will post earnings growth of 3.6% for the quarter. While that's higher than the 3% rate for all of the S&P 500, it's all Apple (AAPL). Exclude Apple's expected earnings growth and average tech earnings will fall 2%.

????There's even concern over Apple's earnings. The cannibalization of laptops by tablets may be eating into sales of big-ticket Macbooks, an analyst at BMO Capital said. Other analysts are concerned that, with the release of a LTE-friendly iPhone all but assured this fall, many Apple loyalists are waiting to buy iPhones, slowing sales for the next several months.