????空頭賣家和雜志編輯們自然津津樂道這樣悲觀的前景。問題是，事情遠(yuǎn)沒有那么簡單。龍洲經(jīng)訊（GK Dragonomics Research）駐北京的董事總經(jīng)理葛藝豪指出，盡管過去十年中國的資本投資規(guī)模龐大，但中國的固定資產(chǎn)總量——基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、工廠和房屋——相對(duì)于其經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)?；蚩?cè)丝诓]有那么高。葛藝豪指出，發(fā)達(dá)國家的資本存量常常是GDP的三倍多一點(diǎn)。中國的資本存量僅為GDP的約兩倍半，只相當(dāng)于日本上世紀(jì)60年代末的水平。

????至少未來十年，中國可以，也應(yīng)當(dāng)繼續(xù)進(jìn)行投資。葛藝豪認(rèn)為，總體資本支出可能在未來幾年將繼續(xù)保持10-12%的年增長，然后才會(huì)放緩，而消費(fèi)將繼續(xù)保持每年約8%的增長速度。

????我承認(rèn)，對(duì)于任何一個(gè)像我這樣過去10年里大部分時(shí)間都生活在中國的人來說，這至少有悖直覺。十年來，這個(gè)國家簡直就是一個(gè)大工地。但葛藝豪提醒我們的，則是中國龐大的規(guī)模。他認(rèn)為，中國的急起直追階段還沒有結(jié)束。

????中國有巨大的增長空間，許許多多的人需要從偏遠(yuǎn)農(nóng)村移居到城市。鑒于此，中國或許有資本抵御愈演愈烈的西方危機(jī)。

????譯者：早稻米

????This makes for a nice tidy bear case of the sort that short sellers and magazine editors love. The problem is, it's not nearly that simple. Arthur Kroeber, the Beijing based Managing Director of GK Dragonomics Research, points out that despite the mind-bending amount of capital investment that's taken place here over the past ten years, China's total stock of fixed capital --infrastructure, industrial plants and housing -- is still not all that high compared to the size of its economy or its overall population. In the developed world, Kroeber notes, a country's capital stock tends be a bit more than three times the size of GDP. In China, it's about two and a half times its GDP, or about where Japan was in the late 1960s.

????China can, and indeed should, continue to invest for at least another decade. Kroeber believes it's possible that overall capital spending can continue to grow by 10%-12% annually for the next couple of years before decelerating, while consumption growth continues to pickup at around 8% a year.

????I admit that to anyone who has, like me, been here for most of the past decade, this is counterintuitive, to say the least. This country has been nothing but a construction site for that entire period of time. What Kroeber urges us to remember, though, is the sheer scale of China. As manic and as rapid as China's "catch up" phase has been, he argues, it's still not over.

????China's got lots of room to grow, lots of people to move from the countryside into the cities, and given that, it also probably has the wherewithal to withstand the intensifying crisis in the West.