????考夫曼基金會(huì)（Kauffman Foundation）最近宣稱，風(fēng)投模式已死。合廣投資（Union Square）的費(fèi)雷德?威爾遜也說，風(fēng)投模式可供使用的資金太多，因此無法成功。還有人選取了超過25個(gè)例子來證明風(fēng)投模式已經(jīng)破產(chǎn)。羅森投資公司（Sevin Rosen）在上世紀(jì)九十年代以個(gè)人電腦和電信硬件投資著稱，但它在2006年放棄了一只新基金，退還投資，標(biāo)志著這一死亡倒計(jì)時(shí)的開始。

????過去十年的平均風(fēng)投回報(bào)確實(shí)很糟。康橋咨詢公司（Cambridge Associates）2010年12月截止的10年累計(jì)美國風(fēng)投回報(bào)指數(shù)變?yōu)樨?fù)值（每年-2.0%），成為當(dāng)時(shí)的頭條新聞。該指數(shù)在2011年12月截止的10年間又猛增到每年3.3%，同時(shí)期納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)平均回報(bào)每年2.9%。但是，考慮到風(fēng)投投資的流動(dòng)性不佳，因?yàn)橥顿Y者應(yīng)該得到比公開市場投資高出3%-5%的溢價(jià)。

????首先，我的一點(diǎn)看法：這些都是馬后炮，提供有益信息但沒有預(yù)測力。在“非理性繁榮”爆發(fā)的1998-2000年，超過2,000億美元的資本涌入美國風(fēng)投市場，此前該市場每年不過吸收50-100億美元。這筆錢導(dǎo)致市場上資金嚴(yán)重供過于求，經(jīng)過很久才逐漸消失。

????The venture capital model is dead, proclaimed the Kauffman Foundation recently. Too much available money for the VC model to succeed added Union Square's Fred Wilson. Another details 25+ stories on why the VC model is broken. Sevin Rosen, a firm known for PC and telecom hardware investments in the 1990s, started this death watch in 2006, when it aborted closing a new fund.

????Average VC returns for the last ten years do stink. Cambridge Associates made headlines when its 10-year cumulative U.S. VC return index went negative at (2.0%)/year in December 2010. The index popped up to 3.3%/year for the decade through December 2011. Over the same period the NASDAQ returned 2.9%/year. But, given the illiquid nature of VC investments, investors deserve a 3% - 5% premium, at least, over public markets.

????First, a bit of perspective: These are rear-view-mirror analyses, informative but not predictive. In the '98-'00 burst of "irrational exuberance," over $200 billion of capital flooded into the U.S. venture market, which had previously absorbed $5-$10 billion per year. This money put a huge supply overhang on the market that has taken time to disappear.