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風險投資敗走IPO的三大原因

風險投資敗走IPO的三大原因

Glenn Solomon 2012年05月23日
風險投資回報不如預期的原因很多,但很多時候都與風投界自身的判斷標準有關。

????2. 盈利率問題。多數(shù)快速成長的公司早期并不盈利,而沒有盈利,就無法計算市盈率。沒有市盈率時,風投通常參考市銷率。公眾投資者也會這么做,而且有很多證據(jù)表明他們并不認為早期盈利企業(yè)更值錢。雖然如此,公眾投資者最終還是希望看到盈利,特別的,他們愿意為長期盈利率擴大的公司付出高價。然而證明盈利率擴張是需要時間的,通常比風投積極參與公司的時間要長。Zynga和Groupon 都顯示了某種形式的盈利能力,但盈利率擴張能力并沒有得到驗證,所以公眾投資者不愿給公司開出高價。

????3. 商業(yè)模式之惑。風投支持的公司中最快速成長的那些通常都會有新的商業(yè)模式。Groupon的運營方式太新,以至于它試圖創(chuàng)造一項全新的指標,來幫助投資者理解公司內(nèi)部如何度量業(yè)績。Zynga則是首家成功利用Facebook平臺的大型公司。雖然創(chuàng)新模式幫助Zynga 和Groupon獲得了巨大的增長率,他們卻找不到可以用來指引公眾投資者的類似或可比公司。如果沒有好的參照物,即使是最令人興奮的公司,公眾投資者對其估值也無所適從。結(jié)果就是,早期上市公司的估值乘數(shù)可能大起大落,直至其商業(yè)模式被證明行之有效。

????當然,并不是所有對處于上市前階段的公司的晚期風投都表現(xiàn)不佳。雖然對Zynga和Groupon 的最后幾輪風險投資不如人意,仍然有幾家獲得風投支持的新上市公司給出了良好的回報。

????比如,雖然在未上市前并沒有獲得風險投資界的狂熱吹捧,點評網(wǎng)站Yelp (YELP), 商務社交網(wǎng)站LinkedIn (LNKD) 和Splunk (SPLK)的后期風投都有上佳表現(xiàn)。因此,風投和其它投資者在參與上市前的高價投資輪次時,需要考慮什么樣的公司會在華爾街大賣,而不僅僅是在沙嶺路(硅谷的一條公路,以風險投資公司聚集聞名——編者注)大賣。

????格倫?所羅門是紀源資本(GGV Capital)的合伙人,紀源資本是擴張階段的風險投資公司,在加州門洛帕克和上海設有辦事處。 他在www.sandhillrdmeetswallst.com撰寫博客

????2. Profit Margin Picture. Most high growth companies aren't profitable early on, and without earnings, there isn't a P/E ratio to measure. In the absence of a P/E, VCs tend to look at price to sales ratios. Public investors do this as well, and there is good evidence to suggest that public investors don't necessarily pay more for profitable companies early on. (See my previous post on profitable vs. unprofitable IPOs.) That said, eventually public investors want to see profits and, more specifically, they'll pay up for a company that can show profit margins expanding over time. Often it takes a while to prove that profit margins can expand, usually long after VCs are actively engaged with a company. Both Zynga and Groupon show certain forms of profitability, but margin expansion doesn't seem proven, so public investors have been less willing ascribe high prices to these companies.

????3. Proven versus Unproven Models. Often times, the fastest growing VC-backed companies operate with new models. Groupon's approach is so new that it tried to invent a metric to help investors understand how it gauges results internally. Zynga is the first large company to leverage the Facebook platform successfully. While their innovative models helped catapult Zynga and Groupon's growth rates, these companies don't have analogous or comparable companies they can point public investors toward. In the absence of good comparable companies, public investors often become uncertain how to value even the most exciting companies. As a result, valuation multiples can swing wildly in the early days of a public company's life until models become more proven.

????Not all late VC rounds in pre-IPO companies under-perform. While Zynga and Groupon haven't been strong performers for the investors in the last rounds of venture capital in those companies, there are several newly public venture-backed companies that have delivered for their VCs.

????For example, the last VC rounds in Yelp (YELP), LinkedIn (LNKD) and Splunk (SPLK), although less heralded by VCs during their times as private companies, have all performed very well. VCs and other investors in high priced pre-IPO rounds need to think more about what will sell on Wall Street, not just on Sand Hill Road.

????Glenn Solomon is a partner with GGV Capital, an expansion stage venture capital firm with offices in Menlo Park and Shanghai. He blogs at www.sandhillrdmeetswallst.com.

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