????Facebook定于本周IPO，令華爾街興奮不已。但巨大的興奮不一定能給投資者帶來(lái)巨大的回報(bào)。不妨掏出計(jì)算器，讓我們純粹從數(shù)字角度，冷靜地算算Facebook要達(dá)到怎樣的業(yè)績(jī)，才能讓在一片贊譽(yù)聲中買(mǎi)入IPO股票的投資者獲得良好回報(bào)。

????如果Facebook的IPO定價(jià)在28-35美元指導(dǎo)區(qū)間的中點(diǎn)，它的初始市值將為860億美元左右。這相當(dāng)于Facebook 2011年凈利潤(rùn)10億美元的86倍。我們假設(shè)股東們希望年投資回報(bào)率為10%，看看七年后。如果Facebook要給出這樣的回報(bào)率，需要實(shí)現(xiàn)怎樣的凈利潤(rùn)和營(yíng)收？

????根據(jù)我們的估算，如果不派息（高速發(fā)展的科技公司通常都是這樣），到2019年年中，F(xiàn)acebook的股價(jià)需要累計(jì)上漲95%。假定Facebook總股本每年至少增加1%，這也是合理的，主要是向員工發(fā)放的期權(quán)?！斑@是一個(gè)非常保守的估算，”咨詢(xún)公司Shareholder Value Advisors的史蒂夫?歐拜恩表示。因此，隨著已發(fā)行股本擴(kuò)大7%，股價(jià)上漲95%（即每年漲10%），屆時(shí)Facebook的市值將達(dá)到1800億美元。

????很難預(yù)料Facebook 2019年的市盈率，但我們假定為20倍。這個(gè)比率已經(jīng)很高，因?yàn)樗馕吨顿Y者期待未來(lái)一些年公司將延續(xù)高于平均的增速，即便是在7年的高速增長(zhǎng)后。

????因此，F(xiàn)acebook將需要實(shí)現(xiàn)近90億美元的凈利潤(rùn)，才能讓投資者獲得漂亮的10%年回報(bào)——雖然還算不上亮麗。復(fù)合年增長(zhǎng)率37%。光是2018年年中到2019年年中，F(xiàn)acebook就必須再增加25億美元的利潤(rùn)。要達(dá)到我們的目標(biāo)，還需要Facebook留存盈利再投資的回報(bào)率達(dá)到37%。這相當(dāng)于美國(guó)大公司平均凈資產(chǎn)回報(bào)率的三倍。

????然后，讓我們把時(shí)間軸再向后延五年，假定10%的回報(bào)率繼續(xù)。到那個(gè)時(shí)候，F(xiàn)acebook的市盈率應(yīng)略回落，假定為18倍，因?yàn)樗殉砷L(zhǎng)為一個(gè)成熟的行業(yè)巨頭。因此，在2023年， Facebook的市值將需要再增長(zhǎng)66%至2,970億美元。如果是18倍市盈率，它的利潤(rùn)將達(dá)到165億美元。

????可供參考的是Facebook的市值將超過(guò)今天的微軟（Microsoft）。另外需要指出的是，2011年只有9家財(cái)富500強(qiáng)公司的凈利潤(rùn)達(dá)到或超過(guò)了150億美元。

????如果Facebook保持2011年的銷(xiāo)售利潤(rùn)率27%，到2023年它的銷(xiāo)售額將需要達(dá)到610億美元。預(yù)計(jì)到2023年全球廣告營(yíng)收將從目前的約4300億美元增至7000多億美元。因此， 十二年后，F(xiàn)acebook需要從神奇小子變身一個(gè)能占據(jù)全球廣告市場(chǎng)約8%份額的公司，從谷歌（Google）、新聞集團(tuán)（News Corp）等公司手中搶奪業(yè)務(wù)。

????會(huì)有這樣的事情發(fā)生嗎？當(dāng)然。但像這樣的簡(jiǎn)單估算，絕不會(huì)破壞華爾街歡慶Facebook IPO的興致。

????譯者：早稻米

????The Facebook IPO scheduled for this week is generating a rush of exhilaration on Wall Street. But big excitement doesn't necessarily translate into big money for investors. So let's pull out our calculators and take a sober, just-the-numbers look at what Facebook needs to achieve to enrich the fans who buy its shares after what is being billed at the debut of the decade.

????If Facebook is priced at the mid-point of the estimated $28 to $35 a share range, it will start with a market cap of around $86 billion. That's 86 times its 2011 earnings of $1 billion. So let's assume shareholders want 10% annual returns from their investment, then look out seven years from now. What earnings and revenues does Facebook need to produce those 10% returns?

????In our experiment, by mid-2019, Facebook must lift its price per share 95%, assuming it pays no dividends –– normally the case with fast-rising players in tech. It's also reasonable to assume that Facebook adds at least 1% to its share count each year, mainly by issuing stock options to employees. "That's an extremely conservative estimate," says Steve O'Byrne of consulting firm Shareholder Value Advisors. So with 7% more shares outstanding, and a stock price that grows by 95% (that's 10% a year), Facebook would reach a market cap of $180 billion.

????It's impossible to know what PE multiple Facebook will garner in 2019, but we'll assume it's 20. That figure is generous since it means investors are expecting more years of faster-than-average growth, even after seven years of frenzied expansion.

????Hence, Facebook would need earnings of almost $9 billion to hand investors nice -- but hardly spectacular -- 10% gains. That's a compound annual growth rate of 37%. From mid-2018 to mid-2019 alone, Facebook would have to generate an additional $2.5 billion in profits. It would also require extraordinary, 37% gains on each dollar of retained earnings it reinvests to reach our milestone. That's three times the average return on equity of America's large companies.

????Now let's extend our horizon another five years and forecast that the 10% returns keep coming. By then, Facebook's PE should fade a bit to, say, 18, reflecting its status as a maturing giant. So in 2023, Facebook's market cap would need to rise another 66% to $297 billion. Its profits would hit $16.5 billion at our 18 PE.

????For context, Facebook would be worth more than Microsoft (MSFT) is today. It's also interesting to note that only nine Fortune 500 companies earned $15 billion or more in 2011.

????If Facebook maintains its 2011 margin on sales of 27%, its sales would need to reach $61 billion by 2023. Global advertising revenues are projected to grow to from around $430 billion today to well over $700 billion by 2023. So Facebook would need to go from a glamor name to capturing something like 8% of all of the world's ad market in 12 years, grabbing business from the likes of Google (GOOG) and News Corp (NWS).

????Can it happen? Sure. But nothing spoils a Wall Street party like a sermon on the math.