????盡管洋溢著樂觀精神，投資者們?nèi)韵Ｍ头铺啬芨逦仃U述他退休之后伯克希爾哈撒韋將何去何從。

????經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢正在改善；伯克希爾哈撒韋股價被低估；投資Facebook風(fēng)險很大。這就是伯克希爾哈撒韋年度股東大會召開前夕，聚集在奧馬哈的投資者的總體感受。

????每年都會有數(shù)萬投資者涌入該市，聆聽沃倫?巴菲特就其公司股票、經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢及投資事業(yè)發(fā)表高見。通常巴菲特都會對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)作出頗為樂觀的評價，但這并不總是與現(xiàn)實(shí)相符。事實(shí)上，巴菲特自己公司的股票過去三年里表現(xiàn)都跑輸大市，而且包括昨日那份疲軟的就業(yè)報告，越來越多跡象表明美國經(jīng)濟(jì)似乎又在走下坡路。更嚴(yán)重的是，巴菲特最近宣布已罹患一期前列腺癌，盡管他表示這不會危及生命，但該消息肯定會引發(fā)人們的擔(dān)憂：現(xiàn)已81歲高齡的巴菲特退休之后，誰來掌管伯克希爾呢？盡管如此，今年伯克希爾股東大會的參加者對今后幾年里經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢的估計(jì)，似乎比往常更加樂觀。

????上周五晚上，共同基金經(jīng)理馬里奧?蓋伯里主持了一場晚餐會，為哥倫比亞大學(xué)——巴菲特曾在此讀研——籌款，在晚餐會上演講的投資者表示，他們相信包括伯克希爾哈撒韋在內(nèi)的美國大公司的股票現(xiàn)在值得買入。哥倫比亞大學(xué)著名投資學(xué)教授、第一雄鷹基金（FirstEagle Funds）研究總監(jiān)布魯斯?格林沃德指出，由于利率極低，消費(fèi)者的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)實(shí)際上減輕了一半，這應(yīng)該會促進(jìn)今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。他還稱，更重要的是事實(shí)證明歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)比很多人想象中更有彈性?！氨M管歐洲面臨諸多問題，經(jīng)濟(jì)還是只下滑了0.5%，仍比兩年前的形勢要好?！备窳治值抡f。

????一些投資者還援引了其他良好跡象來佐證樂觀經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)期，包括鐵路運(yùn)量增加及美國企業(yè)在整個衰退期間都保持著較高利潤水平。蓋伯里本人認(rèn)為今后5個月存在許多不確定性，但他相信只要美國大選一結(jié)束，市場形勢就會繼續(xù)改善。不過，他認(rèn)為即使到那時候世界經(jīng)濟(jì)仍將在相當(dāng)長時間里保持低增速。“世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度將是多少？”蓋伯里說，“對60%的發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體來說，答案是最多2%或3%，你得投資于有定價能力的公司才行。”

????總的來說，包括冬青基金（Wintergreen Fund）經(jīng)理戴維?溫特斯和來自Gardner Russo & Gardner公司的湯姆?羅素在內(nèi)，所有與會投資者都認(rèn)為大盤股的機(jī)會更大，好過小盤股或科技股。格林沃德稱，養(yǎng)老金基金和其他資產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)為對沖基金的現(xiàn)象創(chuàng)造了機(jī)會?！皩_基金的成本結(jié)構(gòu)迫使很多投資涌入中小市值的股票，”格林沃德說，“結(jié)果是一些規(guī)模巨大且安全的公司股價被低估了?！?/p>

????所有這些投資者都認(rèn)為，伯克希爾哈撒韋就是這么一只被低估的股票。該公司股票周五收盤價不到12.2萬美元，而溫特斯認(rèn)為其價值超過16萬美元。他還稱，像他這樣的投資者出席伯克希爾年度股東大會，是為了聽巴菲特再次擔(dān)保一切都將順利。由于巴菲特持有80家專注美國市場的公司的股票，包括伯靈頓北方鐵路公司，他比大多數(shù)人都更了解美國經(jīng)濟(jì)。

????The economy is improving. Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKA) stock is undervalued. And Facebook is a crapshoot. That was the general feeling at a gathering of investors on the eve of Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting.

????Tens of thousands of investors pour into this city each year to hear Warren Buffett address his company's stock and the economy, and investing in general. What they get is typically an optimistic assessment of the U.S. economy, which doesn't always square with reality. Indeed, Buffett's own stock has underperformed the market for the past three years. And there are growing signs, including yesterday's weak jobs report, that the economy appears to be slumping again. What's more, Buffett recently revealed that he has Stage 1 Prostate Cancer. He says it's not life threatening. However it's sure to raise the issue of who might run Berkshire after Buffett, 81, steps down. Still, this year, the attendees of Berkshire's annual meeting seem more upbeat about the economy in the next few years than usual.

????Investors speaking at a dinner on Friday night that was hosted by mutual fund manager Mario Gabelli to benefit Columbia University, where Buffett went to graduate school, said they believed the shares of large U.S. companies, including Berkshire Hathaway, were a good bet right now. Bruce Greenwald, Columbia's reknowned investing professor and the Director of Research at FirstEagle Funds, says the fact that consumer debt burdens have effectively been cut in half by low interest rates should help propel the economy this year. What's more, he says Europe has proven much more resilient that many thought. "Despite all the problems Europe's economy is down half a percent, and it's up from where it was two years ago," says Greenwald.

????Other good signs for the economy that some investors cited were the fact that railroad traffic was up, and that U.S. corporate profits had remained strong during the recession. Gabelli, for his part, saw a lot uncertainty in the next five months. But once we get through the election in the U.S., he thought the market should continue to improve. Even then, Gabelli says it could be slow going for the world economy for some time. "What is the world economy going to grow," Gabelli says. "For 60% that makes up the development economies, the answer is 2% or 3% at best. You need to invest in companies with pricing power."

????Generally, all the investors, which also included David Winters of the Wintergreen Fund and Tom Russo of Gardner Russo & Gardner, thought there was more opportunity in large capitalization stocks, than smaller or technology companies. Greenwald said the shift of pension funds and other assets into hedge funds was creating an opportunity. "The hedge fund cost structure has pushed a lot of investment into small and medium cap stocks," said Greenwald. "The result is that there are a number of undervalued huge, safe companies."

????One of those stocks that all the investors thought was undervalued was Berkshire Hathaway. Winters said he thought Berkshire's shares, which headed into the weekend at just under $122,000, were worth $160,000. He said investors like himself come to Berkshire's annual meeting for reassurances from Buffett that things are going to be OK. Buffett, because he owns 80 U.S. focused company companies, including railroad Burlington Northern, has a better view into the economy than most people.