????此外，任何可能造成伊朗石油完全停產(chǎn)的重大沖突將會(huì)產(chǎn)生重要的溢出效應(yīng)。雖然伊朗不太可能封鎖霍爾木茲海峽石油通道（市場(chǎng)“所謂的威脅”之一），但是如果真的出現(xiàn)這樣的局面，它不僅會(huì)切斷伊朗本國主要的石油出口，還會(huì)切斷大沙特主要的石油出口。全世界正在交易的石油中約20%（約1,700萬桶）每天要通過霍爾木茲海峽，其中大部分石油來自沙特。唯一的替代方案就是通過橫貫沙特東西的745英里石油管道進(jìn)入紅海。這條管道的額定運(yùn)載能力只有500萬桶/天，僅相當(dāng)于沙特目前產(chǎn)能的一半。與此同時(shí)，一旦出現(xiàn)這種情形，伊拉克、科威特和阿拉伯聯(lián)合奠長國的石油出口也會(huì)受到嚴(yán)重的影響。

????伊朗關(guān)閉海峽的可能性微乎其微，因?yàn)樗诮?jīng)濟(jì)上無異于自殺。但是，華爾街好像認(rèn)為，這種情況或者其他類似情況足以為原油市場(chǎng)的買進(jìn)來提供了充分的理由。目前，這種思維方式已經(jīng)造成了油價(jià)的螺旋式上漲。

????如今，將高油價(jià)歸咎于投機(jī)者已不是什么新鮮事。新鮮的事，石油市場(chǎng)最大的投機(jī)者之一高盛投資公司（Goldman Sachs）承認(rèn)，大規(guī)模投機(jī)行為確實(shí)對(duì)油價(jià)產(chǎn)生了影響。至于影響有多大，高盛投資公司的石油分析人士上月發(fā)表文章表示，投機(jī)者每買進(jìn)100萬桶石油凈長倉期貨，石油價(jià)格就會(huì)上漲10美分。目前，市場(chǎng)上的258,406份原油合同（相當(dāng)于2.58億桶石油），使得美國的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)原油或西德克薩斯輕質(zhì)原油（WTO）處于凈長倉狀態(tài)。以每100萬桶石油漲10美分計(jì)算，投機(jī)行為使每桶石油價(jià)格增加25.80美元——如果沒有過度投機(jī)，石油的交易價(jià)格本應(yīng)在81.52美元左右。

????石油價(jià)格的溢價(jià)，與市場(chǎng)和恐懼溢價(jià)兩者都有關(guān)聯(lián)。消極的投資基金偏于做多，交易所買賣基金（ETF）和商品牛市使原油合同始終屬于凈長倉類別。伊朗形勢(shì)推動(dòng)的恐懼溢價(jià)加劇了油價(jià)的扭曲程度。只要華爾街存有憂慮，恐懼溢價(jià)就會(huì)持續(xù)存在。所以，即使沙特敞開供應(yīng)，滿足市場(chǎng)原油需求，填補(bǔ)任何可能出現(xiàn)的供應(yīng)缺口，也不可能真正發(fā)揮作用，除非首先解決投機(jī)問題。

????下次，美國總統(tǒng)去中東討論高價(jià)石油和汽油問題前，應(yīng)該先去視察一下華爾街，或許這才是明智之舉。

????譯者：喬樹靜/汪皓

????Furthermore, any major conflict that would see Iranian production reduced to zero would have major spill-over effects. In the unlikely event that Iran did close the Straits of Hormuz, one of the market's "perceived threats," that would not only cut off the bulk of Iran's own oil exports, but it would also cut off the bulk of Saudi Arabia's exports. Around 20% of the world's traded oil, some 17 million barrels, passes through the Straits every day. Most of that oil comes from Saudi Arabia. The only alternative is to ship the oil across the country via the 745 mile East-West pipeline that dumps out into the Red Sea. The pipeline has a nameplate capacity of just 5 million barrels a day, half of the Kingdom's current production. In addition, oil exports from Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE would be severely disrupted in such a scenario.

????The chance Iran would close the Straits is very small as it would be the equivalent of committing economic suicide. But Wall Street seems to think that this scenario or something equivalent is plausible enough to go long the crude markets. This has created an upward spiral in prices.

????Now, blaming speculators for high prices is nothing new. What is new is that one of the largest speculators in the oil markets, none other than Goldman Sachs (GS), admitting that heavy speculation does have an impact on oil prices. How much? Well, Goldman's oil analyst wrote in a note last month that every million barrel equivalent of oil futures that was net long the market adds 10 cents to the price of oil. The market is currently net long US benchmark crude, or WTI, by 258,406 contracts which is equivalent to 258 million barrels of oil. At 10 cents per every million barrels, that would mean speculation is currently adding $25.80 to every barrel of oil -- without the excess speculation, oil would trade at around $81.52.

????This premium in the oil price is part market-specific and part fear premium. Passive investment funds that have a long bias, ETFs and commodity bulls keep the crude contract in the net long category usually all the time. The fear premium added by the Iranian situation has just exacerbated this distortion in the price. This fear premium will continue for as long as Wall Street is worried. So even if Saudi Arabia could flood the market with oil and plug any perceived supply shortage, it wouldn't make a difference unless this overhang in speculation is addressed.

????The next time the President heads to the Middle East to discuss high oil and gasoline prices, he would be wise to make a pit stop on Wall Street.