????一年多來，投資者一直對深陷危機的歐元區(qū)前景憂心忡忡。高危的歐元區(qū)外圍經(jīng)濟體的債券收益率暴漲，說明投資者對希臘等國償還巨額債務(wù)已不再抱有希望。隨著歐洲危機慢慢向意大利等大國蔓延，收益率飆升，高危國家只能無奈尋求救助。而在另一端，德國的債券收益率已降至負值，這意味著投資者不僅愿意放棄投資收益，還愿意為資金的安全付出代價。

????不過，令人驚奇的是去年大部分時間里這樣的恐慌情緒并未壓低歐元。直到最近，歐元兌美元仍報于1.34美元——與這場危機爆發(fā)前的2007年水平相仿，僅略低于2011年年初時的水平。

????但現(xiàn)在，歐元匯率出乎意料的堅挺走勢已開始動搖，分析人士預(yù)計2012年歐元匯率很可能要經(jīng)受考驗。須知2011年12月，歐洲央行（European Central Bank）已啟動三年期貸款計劃，首批向歐元區(qū)523家銀行投放了6,432億美元資金以支持放貸，并增加流動性。也許更為重要的是，歐元開始走軟正值美國經(jīng)濟前景開始顯著改善之際。

????2011年12月份，歐元兌美元下跌3.6%。歐元成為2011年表現(xiàn)最糟糕的主要貨幣，歐元兌美元收于一年以來的最低點，歐元兌日元收于十年來的低點。歐元下跌導(dǎo)致歐元空頭頭寸激增。美國商品期貨交易委員會（U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission）的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至2011年12月27日當周，空頭（即投資者可通過標的證券價格下跌賺錢）頭寸比多頭頭寸多出了127,900張合約。這個數(shù)字創(chuàng)下了一個新高，前一周這一數(shù)字為113,700張合約。

????緊隨野村集團（Nomura Group）和其他公司之后，巴克萊（Barclays）也對歐元做出了負面預(yù)測。巴克萊預(yù)計未來六個月歐元可能跌至1.20美元。目前歐元為1.2779美元，此前一天則剛剛憑借反彈脫離16個月低點的1.26美元。

????巴克萊的北美外匯研究主管何塞?懷恩表示，令歐元承壓的最直接因素是2012年歐洲經(jīng)濟增長前景惡化，而美國的前景則適度看好。他預(yù)計2012年美國經(jīng)濟將增長2.5%，而陷入困境的歐洲外圍經(jīng)濟體（特別是希臘）可能遇到嚴重的償債問題，因為歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟預(yù)計將經(jīng)歷一定衰退，增速下降0.2%。

????周一，德國總理安格拉?默克爾和法國總統(tǒng)尼古拉?薩科奇在柏林會晤，商討應(yīng)對債務(wù)危機的歐元區(qū)計劃。但希臘經(jīng)濟惡化可能令救助方案不再具有可行性，因此，會談取得的任何進展都會蒙上一層陰影。

????懷恩稱：“2011年9月份之前，歐洲的經(jīng)濟活動還相當強勁?！彼a充說，經(jīng)濟增長前景下調(diào)的預(yù)測不僅適用于歐洲，同樣也適用于美國、中國等其他主要國家。

????盡管如此，目前幾乎無人預(yù)測事情會向最糟的方向發(fā)展——即歐元區(qū)全面解體。

????Investors have been unnerved for more than a year now about the future of the embattled euro zone. Bond yields for the zone's troubled peripheral countries soared, as investors lost faith that Greece and others would be able to pay back its huge debts. And as Europe's ongoing crisis seeped into bigger countries like Italy, yields skyrocketed, leaving the troubled nations to scramble for bailouts. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Germany's bond yields have now fallen below zero, meaning investors are not only willing to forgo returns on their money, but they will pay in order to keep it safe.

????Surprisingly, however, for most of last year, the panic couldn't bring the euro down. Up until recently, Europe's common currency traded at $1.34 against the dollar – roughly where it was in 2007 before the crisis unfolded and just shy of where it was at the start of 2011.

????But the euro's unexpected strength has begun to wane and analysts predict 2012 could very well test the currency's resilience. This follows the European Central Bank's move in December to allot $643.18 billion in the first batch of its 3-year loan program to 523 banks in the euro zone to support lending and expand liquidity. Perhaps more importantly, the declines in the euro come as the economic outlook in the U.S. has started to markedly improve.

????In December, the euro lost 3.6% against the dollar. It ended 2011 as the worst performing major currency, spiraling to a one-year low against the greenback and a 10-year low against the Japanese yen. The euro's drop has sparked a renewed surge in bets against the currency. In the week ending December 27, the number of short positions, whereby investors gain from a decline in prices, outnumbered long position by 127,900 contracts, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That's a record and up from 113,700 contacts the prior week.

????Barclays joins Nomura Group and other firms with a negative forecast for the euro. During the next six months, Barclays predicts the euro could fall to $1.20. Currently, the currency is trading at $1.2779 after an overnight bounce off of a 16-month low of $1.26.

????The most immediate factor putting downward pressure on the euro is Europe's deteriorating growth prospects for 2012 against a modestly better outlook for the U.S, says Jose Wynne, the bank's North America head of foreign exchange research. While he forecasts that the U.S. economy will grow 2.5% in 2012, Europe's troubled peripheral nations (especially Greece) could have a tough time repaying debts as the region is forecast to undergo a moderate recession with growth contracting 0.2%.

????On Monday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy met in Berlin to discuss the euro zone's plans to tackle the debt crisis. But worries that Greece's deteriorating economy could threaten the viability of its bailout package overshadowed any progress of the talks.

????"Before September economic activity was still pretty strong in Europe," says Wynne, adding that downward revisions for growth outlooks applied not just to Europe but other major countries such as the U.S. and China.

????Few are predicting the worst case scenario - that is, a full-blown break-up of the euro zone.