????不少投資者都在關(guān)注“阿拉伯之春”（即去年12月份由突尼斯一個(gè)小販為抗議警察暴力執(zhí)法而自焚引發(fā)的抗議和革命浪潮），但他們認(rèn)為它無礙大局。富蘭克林鄧普頓（Franklin Templeton）新興市場(chǎng)投資大師馬克?莫比爾斯長(zhǎng)期看好中東經(jīng)濟(jì)。他認(rèn)為，這場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩只是中東地區(qū)邁向民主和自由市場(chǎng)過程中的一個(gè)“小小的顛簸”。

????其他投資界人士可沒那么肯定。哈立德?阿布杜拉?瑪濟(jì)德在倫敦管理著一支專門投資北非國(guó)家的小型對(duì)沖基金，客戶大部分是美國(guó)和歐洲的基金和捐贈(zèng)基金。他說他的客戶們現(xiàn)在比較緊張，因?yàn)樗麄冊(cè)谧约簢?guó)內(nèi)已經(jīng)遭遇了太多麻煩。

????這些機(jī)構(gòu)投資者擔(dān)心后卡扎菲時(shí)代的利比亞會(huì)出現(xiàn)怎樣的政府，擔(dān)心埃及的大選和持續(xù)的暴亂。他們擔(dān)心埃及境內(nèi)的穆斯林與科普特基督徒之間以及沙特境內(nèi)遜尼派和什葉派穆斯林之間的緊張對(duì)立。他們擔(dān)心殘暴的阿薩德政府還會(huì)在敘利亞延續(xù)多久，代價(jià)如何。他們擔(dān)心伊朗的核武器，以及以色列可能的應(yīng)對(duì)之策。

????“投資者現(xiàn)在沒有冒險(xiǎn)的欲望，而且我們所處的地區(qū)一向被視為一個(gè)充滿風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的地方，”瑪濟(jì)德稱。瑪濟(jì)德于2004年創(chuàng)立了其MENA Admiral基金，初始規(guī)模2,200萬美元，2008年6月增至1.20億美元?，F(xiàn)在，他又回到了1,500萬美元的規(guī)模。“就像是一個(gè)折返跑，”他說。

????事實(shí)上，自從2010年12月突尼斯抗議活動(dòng)開始以來，海外資本就在撤離這個(gè)地區(qū)。道瓊斯MENA指數(shù)（“MENA”是中東-北非的縮寫，通常指阿拉伯國(guó)家，有時(shí)包括土耳其）已從2010年底的558點(diǎn)跌至今年3月460點(diǎn)的低點(diǎn)。最近，該指數(shù)徘徊在470點(diǎn)附近。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾泛阿拉伯綜合指數(shù)今年下跌約13%。這個(gè)地區(qū)內(nèi)人口最多的國(guó)家——埃及的股市今年早些時(shí)候因暴亂而關(guān)閉了55天。埃及股市EGX 30指數(shù)今年已下跌約40%，從約7,000點(diǎn)跌到了目前的4,000點(diǎn)。11月底示威人群回到解放廣場(chǎng)，抗議埃及軍隊(duì)在第一輪國(guó)會(huì)大選前開始強(qiáng)化控制力。在此之前，該指數(shù)一度穩(wěn)定在4,500點(diǎn)左右。魯比尼全球經(jīng)濟(jì)咨詢公司（Roubini Global Economics）估計(jì)2009-2010財(cái)年僅60億美元左右的埃及外國(guó)直接投資現(xiàn)已直線下跌了68%。

??? A few investors look at the Arab Spring -- the wave of protest and revolution that began last December when a Tunisian street vendor set himself on fire to protest his harassment by police -- and don't see a particularly big deal. Franklin Templeton emerging markets guru Mark Mobius, a longtime bull on the economies of the Middle East, has called the tumult just a "bump" in the road towards more democracy and freer markets in the area.

????The rest of the investing world is not so sure. Khaled Abdel Majeed runs a small London-based hedge fund that invests in the countries of North Africa, and he says his clients, mostly U.S. and European pension funds and endowments with plenty of trouble in their home economies, are nervous.

????These institutional investors worry about what kind of post-Qaddafi government might emerge in Libya and about the elections and ongoing violence in Egypt. They worry about tensions between Muslims and Coptic Christians in Egypt and between Sunni and Shia Muslims in Saudi Arabia. They worry about the how long the brutal Assad government can hang on in Syria and at what cost. They worry about a nuclear Iran and what Israel may decide to do about it.

????"There is no appetite for risk and we are in a part of the world that has historically been thought of as risky," Majeed says. Majeed started his MENA Admiral fund in 2004 with $22 million and then built it up to $120 million by June 2008. Now he's down to $15 million. "It's been a round trip and then some," he says.

????Indeed, foreign capital has been fleeing the region since December 2010 when protests began in Tunisia. The Dow Jones MENA index ("MENA" is an acronym for Middle East-North Africa and usually means the Arab countries and sometimes Turkey) plummeted from 558 in late 2010 to a low of 460 in March. Lately it's been around 470. The S&P Pan Arab Composite Index is down about 13% on the year. The stock market of Egypt, the region's most populous country, was closed for 55 days during tumult there early this year. The EGX 30 stock index has fallen about 40% on the year from about 7000 to 4000 currently. The index had stabilized around 4500 before crowds returned to Tahrir Square late in November to protest moves by the Egyptian army to consolidate its control in advance of the first round of parliamentary elections. Roubini Global Economics estimates foreign direct investment in Egypt, only about $6 billion in the 2009-2010 fiscal year, has dropped by 68%.