????如果到本周歐盟緊急峰會結束時歐元區(qū)還不能拿出一個真正可信的方案來解曠日持久的主權債務危機，標準普爾（Standard and Poor's）稱，歐元區(qū)所有成員國——包括AAA評級的德國和法國——的評級可能都會被下調一檔，甚至兩檔。周一該消息一傳出，全球齊聲驚呼。隨后，亞歐市場出現(xiàn)大跌。憤怒的政客和專家門質問道：歐元區(qū)似乎好不容易要齊心協(xié)力采取行動了，標準普爾怎么能在這個時候這么干？

????理由很簡單——歐元區(qū)領導人其實連解決危機的門都還沒摸到。德法兩國計劃本周五在緊急峰會上推出的“新財政條約”力度還遠遠不夠，不太可能終結這場似乎沒有盡頭的危機。在這個時候，除非歐洲央行（the European Central Bank）挺身而出，擔當歐元區(qū)的最后貸款人，否則新財政條約就是一桿沒裝子彈的槍。標準普爾希望，歐元區(qū)評級可能面臨大面積下調的前景或許能迫使這個內部差異很大的集團最終能同心協(xié)力地解決這場危機。

????周一，標準普爾等到美國市場收盤后宣布，已將歐元區(qū)15個成員國列入負面信貸觀察名單。在其出具的說明性特別報告中，只有希臘（信貸評級為垃圾級）和塞浦路斯（早已列入負面信貸觀察名單）未被列入。雖然本月外界對有些歐元區(qū)成員國（尤其是法國）的評級可能被下調早有預期，但標準普爾將整個歐元區(qū)納入評級可能下調之列仍有點讓人意外，包括奧地利、荷蘭、芬蘭和彈丸小國盧森堡等財政審慎的國家。

????標準普爾選擇在在本周末關鍵的歐盟峰會前夕發(fā)布下調信用評級的預期絕非巧合。評級下調威脅就如同達摩克利斯之劍懸在成員國的頭頂，意在引起相關國家的注意。

????“我們認為，這場危機深化和蔓延的風險已顯著上升?？紤]到歐洲貨幣聯(lián)盟內部各個經濟體和金融市場間的緊密相連，事態(tài)發(fā)展將席卷整個貨幣聯(lián)盟，”標準普爾在報告中這樣解釋緣由。

????形勢已經空前明朗。自從去年春天歐債危機首次爆發(fā)以來，歐元區(qū)成員國已舉行了約23次高級別會議，討論解決危機的各種方法。不幸的是，所有會談都未能讓歐盟成員國同心同德，以一個有凝聚力的集體思考問題。歐元區(qū)成員國中，仍然存在“我們和他們”這樣的心態(tài)。北歐那些“財政審慎”的國家曾受益于弱勢歐元和貿易區(qū)的擴大，現(xiàn)在卻不愿承擔這一紅利帶來的后果，不愿資助那些負債累累、“揮霍無度”的南歐國家，雖然后者的負債部分就是源于向北歐購買商品和服務。

????If the eurozone fails to present a truly viable plan to resolve the long-running sovereign debt crisis by the conclusion of this week's emergency EU summit, all of its members, including triple-A rated Germany and France, could see their credit ratings slashed by one or even two notches, according to Standard and Poor's. One could hear the collective gasps of shock around the world following yesterday's announcement. Markets later tumbled in Asia and Europe in response. Angry politicians and pundits asked: How could S&P do this now, just when the eurozone looks like it is finally getting it's act together?

????The reason is simple – eurozone leaders aren't even close to solving this crisis. The "new fiscal compact" that Germany and France plan to reveal at the emergency summit this Friday is weak and will most likely fail to put an end to this seemingly endless crisis. At this point, unless the European Central Bank steps up to become the eurozone's lender of last resort, the compact will be seen as a gun without ammunition. S&P hopes that the threat of a massive downgrade of the eurozone will force this disparate bunch to finally act collectively to solve this crisis.

????S&P waited till the end of U.S. trading on Monday to announce that they had put 15 members of the eurozone on negative credit watch. Only Greece, which has a junk credit rating, and Cyprus, which is already on negative credit watch, were spared from a special report from the credit rating agency explaining their move. While a downgrade of some of the eurozone's members was expected this month, most notably France, it came as a bit of a shock that S&P would put the entire eurozone on the chopping block, including fiscally prudent countries like Austria, the Netherlands, Finland and tiny Luxembourg.

????S&P's downgrade on the eve of a critical EU summit this weekend is no coincidence. The threat, hanging like the sword of Damocles over the head of the members, was meant to get their attention.

????"We believe that the risks of a deepening and broadening of the crisis have risen markedly and the repercussions of this development will in our view be felt across the monetary union, considering the interconnectedness of the EMU economies and financial markets," S&P wrote in a note explaining its move.

????It doesn't get any clearer than that. There have been around 23 high profile meetings among eurozone members since the crisis first broke out in the spring of last year to discuss ways to put this issue to bed. Unfortunately, all this talking has failed to get the members to think collectively as one cohesive unit. There is still an "us versus them" mentality among the eurozone members. The "fiscally prudent" nations from Northern Europe, which have benefitted from a weak euro and expanded trading zone, are unwilling to absorb the consequences of that perk by aiding the "profligate" southern European countries that have racked up tons of debt, due, in part, from buying goods and services from the north.