????上周，隨著交易員們開始將他們的經(jīng)濟(jì)視角從歐洲那些恣意揮霍的邊緣經(jīng)濟(jì)體轉(zhuǎn)到了歐洲核心經(jīng)濟(jì)體身上，法國債券的保險成本出現(xiàn)了大幅攀升。幾個月來，法國一直在竭力試圖拿出一個方案，希望能保住其讓人垂涎的AAA評級，并讓市場相信法國的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況良好。雖然法國的狀況好于意大利，但顯然不如其頂級信用評級顯示的那么健康。法國清楚需要做些什么才能改善財政狀況，但可能需要有一場像意大利那樣的危機(jī)，法國才會最終痛下決心。

????上周隨著意大利政壇震蕩以及意大利最大的銀行裕信銀行（Unicredit）公布創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的虧損業(yè)績，意大利占據(jù)了很多歐洲以外媒體的頭條位置。但比起羅馬，紐約和歐洲的很多交易員似乎對來自巴黎的消息更感興趣。上周一，法國總理弗朗索瓦?菲永公布了一項備受期待的緊縮方案，希望藉此能保住法國讓人羨慕的AAA信用評級，促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。

????然而，市場并不買賬。倫敦的一些經(jīng)紀(jì)人稱，緊縮方案公布后法國債券的信貸違約掉期（CDS）息差反而躍升至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的236個基點。這意味著如果一個持有1,000萬歐元法國債券的投資者要保護(hù)自己免受主權(quán)債券違約的損失，需要每年支付多達(dá)236,000歐元。鑒于法國擁有完美的AAA信用評級，其債券理應(yīng)被視為零風(fēng)險，眼下這樣的保險成本實在是太高了。

????CDS息差大漲可能讓法國不少政界人士大感意外，因為他們一度認(rèn)為自己提出的緊縮措施已經(jīng)相當(dāng)嚴(yán)厲。根據(jù)這項緊縮方案，法國公司稅率將增加5%，服務(wù)類增值稅稅率從5.5%升至7%，頗有爭議的法定退休年齡從60歲推遲至62歲的改革措施也將提前一年實施。方案還取消了一些稅收減免措施和國家補(bǔ)助措施。

????菲永稱，他希望緊縮方案2012年能實現(xiàn)預(yù)算節(jié)省約70億歐元，2013年再節(jié)省116億歐元。他預(yù)計到2016年底前，總計將節(jié)省650億歐元。

增長放緩，稅基縮水

????這個方案看似力度很大，但只要略微細(xì)看便知并沒有什么?！肮?jié)省”主要來自加稅，而不是縮減龐大的福利支出。如此大幅加稅很可能放緩法國業(yè)已乏力的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。隨著法國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長停滯，納稅基數(shù)亦然，任何可能獲得的“節(jié)省”也無從談起。

????The cost to insure French debt soared this week as traders started to shift their attention away from the economic health of Europe's more profligate periphery to that of its core members. France has been scrambling for months to come up with a plan to save its coveted triple-A credit rating and convince the markets that it is in fine economic shape. While the country is better off than Italy, it is certainly not as healthy as its perfect credit rating suggest. France knows what it needs to do to get its fiscal house in order, but it risks facing an Italian-like crisis to finally bite the bullet.

????Italy has dominated the headlines out of Europe this week as its government fell into chaos and its largest bank, Unicredit, reported a record loss. But many traders in New York and Europe seemed more interested in the news coming out of Paris than Rome. On Monday, French Prime Minister Francois Fillon revealed a much anticipated austerity package that was meant to save France's coveted triple-A credit rating and help spur growth.

????The market was not impressed. After the announcement, the cost to insure French debt using credit default swaps jumped to a record 236 basis points, according to brokers in the City of London. That meant it would cost as much as 236,000 euros per year for an investor holding 10 million euros of French bonds to protect themselves from a sovereign default. That's a considerable payout on debt that should ostensibly be considered risk free given the nation's perfect triple-A credit rating.

????The jump in CDS spreads probably shocked many French politicians who thought that the measures they had proposed were extremely tough. The plan would see corporate tax rates go up by 5%, while the value added tax on services would go up from 5.5% to 7%. It would bring forward by one year the implementation of a controversial plan to raise the retirement age in France from 60 to 62 years old. The plan also eliminated some tax deductions and state assistance.

????Fillion said he hoped the plan would bring about 7 billion euros in budget savings in 2012 and a further 11.6 billion euros in savings for 2013. In total, he said the plan would produce 65 billion euros in savings by 2016.

Slower growth, smaller tax base

????That might seem like a tough plan, but it looks pretty weak when one drills down a bit. The bulk of the "savings" in the plan come from tax hikes as opposed to cuts in the country's bloated welfare state. Such large tax increases will most likely slow France's already anemic economic growth rate. As the country's growth rate stalls, so will its tax base, negating any possible "savings" it might receive.