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最佳投資策略玩轉(zhuǎn)新興市場(chǎng)

最佳投資策略玩轉(zhuǎn)新興市場(chǎng)

Scott Cendrowski 2011-11-18
通過跨國(guó)公司投資?還是本土公司?看看市場(chǎng),可能就不難作出選擇了。

????第二點(diǎn)是,新興市場(chǎng)的波動(dòng)性較前些年大大減弱。股票的波動(dòng)性大致可看貝塔值,即相對(duì)于大盤的表現(xiàn)指標(biāo)。如果股市漲了10%,股票漲了20%,那么該股的貝塔值就是2。歷史數(shù)據(jù)顯示,新興市場(chǎng)指數(shù)的貝塔值是標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的1.8倍。而今隨著發(fā)展中市場(chǎng)的業(yè)務(wù)日漸成熟、政府環(huán)境改善以及更成熟的投資者進(jìn)入市場(chǎng),這一比率已經(jīng)降至1.2 倍。

????第三,發(fā)展中市場(chǎng)的股息增速也遠(yuǎn)高于發(fā)達(dá)市場(chǎng)。過去10年,摩根士丹利新興市場(chǎng)指數(shù)的股息年增幅為15%,大大高于標(biāo)普500指數(shù)5%的股息年增幅。如今,這兩個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)分別為3.5%和2.1%。過去3年,發(fā)展中市場(chǎng)的股息都保持了正增長(zhǎng),而標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的股息卻減少了5%。

????普通投資者可以有幾種方式來嘗試投資新興市場(chǎng)。交易所交易基金(Exchange-traded funds)提供了廣泛的股票組合,收取的管理費(fèi)卻只是共同基金的一個(gè)零頭。最熱門的ETF是先鋒基金公司(Vanguard)的摩根士丹利新興市場(chǎng)ETF(MSCI Emerging Markets ETF),該基金持有韓國(guó)三星電子(Samsung Electronics)和中國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司騰訊(Tencent)等大盤股,管理費(fèi)費(fèi)率僅為0.22%。PowerShares FTSE RAFI新興市場(chǎng)投資組合(The PowerShares FTSE RAFI Emerging Markets Portfolio)與先鋒基金公司的基金相似,但它是根據(jù)公司賬面價(jià)值和現(xiàn)金流來決定新興市場(chǎng)公司的權(quán)重,而不是公司的市值。這個(gè)策略能夠避免持有過多泡沫型股票。該投資組合的管理費(fèi)費(fèi)率為0.85%。赫德斯旗下的Emerging Global Advisors公司管理著一支專注于新興市場(chǎng)消費(fèi)支出的ETF,持有包括墨西哥和印度等國(guó)龍頭企業(yè)在內(nèi)的30家公司。該ETF的管理費(fèi)費(fèi)率0.85%。

????如今,是否應(yīng)該持有新興市場(chǎng)的股票已毫無爭(zhēng)議,因?yàn)樾屡d市場(chǎng)的高增長(zhǎng)無人可及。但怎樣投資才能充分受益于新興市場(chǎng)的增長(zhǎng),相關(guān)爭(zhēng)論可能才剛剛開始升溫。

????The second point is that emerging markets are much less volatile than they have been in recent history. A stock's volatility is roughly approximated by its beta, a calculation of its relation to the broader market. If the market rises by 10%, and a stock rises by 20%, it's said to have a beta of 2. Emerging market indexes historically recorded a beta of roughly 1.8 times that of the S&P 500. Today it has fallen to 1.2 as developing businesses mature, governments improve, and more sophisticated investors enter markets.

????Third, skyrocketing dividend growth rates in the developing world aren't even close to those in developed markets. Over the past 10 years, the MSCI Emerging Market index has grown dividends by 15% annually compared to 5% in the S&P 500. It now yields 3.5% vs. the S&P's 2.1%. And in the past three years dividend growth in developing markets has stayed positive as the S&P 500's dividend payment has dropped by 5%.

????There are a couple ways regular investors can play it. Exchange-traded funds offer broad baskets of stocks and charge a management fee that's often just a fraction of those at mutual funds. The most popular ETF is Vanguard's MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, which holds large cap stocks such as Samsung Electronics of South Korea and China-based Tencent. It charges a fee of 0.22%. The PowerShares FTSE RAFI Emerging Markets Portfolio is similar to Vanguard's fund, except it weighs emerging market companies according to their book value and cash flow instead of market capitalization. That protects against holding too many bubble-type stocks. It charges 0.85%. Holderith's firm, Emerging Global Advisors, runs an ETF called focused on emerging market consumer spending which includes 30 leading companies in countries like Mexico and India. It charges 0.85%.

????For now, the argument whether to own emerging markets seems over: they offer growth found nowhere else. The fight over the best way to tap into it might just be heating up.

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