????問題是希臘官僚機(jī)構(gòu)起用德國公司不完全是因?yàn)楦哔|(zhì)量和共同貨幣，還因?yàn)樗麄兊昧撕锰帯Ｎ鏖T子（Siemens）、戴姆勒奔馳（Daimler）、德國鐵路（Deutsche Bahn）和Ferrostaal等德國公司都曾被指向希臘官員行賄數(shù)百萬歐元，以獲取希臘政府的軍用和民用項(xiàng)目。其中，西門子曾被指為獲取2004年奧運(yùn)會(huì)前雅典電信基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施升級(jí)項(xiàng)目，向希臘官員行賄1億歐元。

????德國公司執(zhí)行的這些大型項(xiàng)目大多用于升級(jí)希臘陳舊的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。但這些設(shè)施陳舊是有原因的——希臘并不闊綽。但由于匯率高估和廉價(jià)融資，希臘人樂得拿了錢就花。

????但是我們能譴責(zé)他們嗎？匯率高估也意味著希臘經(jīng)濟(jì)變得毫無競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。希臘的主要出口商品，如橄欖，賣到國外就太貴了。與此同時(shí)，在希臘島上開派對(duì)的成本也比在土耳其類似地點(diǎn)貴出了幾倍。經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮時(shí)期，這不是什么問題；但當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)，希臘旅游業(yè)受到的沖擊就很大了。

????德國開足了馬力出口時(shí)，希臘經(jīng)濟(jì)疲弱以及龐大的赤字應(yīng)該是可以預(yù)見的。由于歐元區(qū)區(qū)內(nèi)貿(mào)易量很大，一個(gè)成員國的經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目順差自然意味著另一個(gè)國家的逆差。

德國退出歐元區(qū)代價(jià)高昂

????瑞銀（UBS)曾嘗試評(píng)估德國退出歐元區(qū)的成本。分析人士預(yù)計(jì)一次性成本可能達(dá)到德國GDP的20%- 25%左右，或德國人人均6,000-8,000歐元。此后，每一年它都會(huì)耗費(fèi)每個(gè)德國公民約3,500-4,000歐元。

????相比之下，瑞銀估計(jì)如果歐元區(qū)吞下希臘、愛爾蘭和葡萄牙50%的債務(wù)，每個(gè)德國人只需一次性付出略高于1,000歐元即可。這樣的結(jié)果遠(yuǎn)好于退出歐元區(qū)。這項(xiàng)研究沒有包括救助意大利，意大利的未償債務(wù)總額是所有這些國家債務(wù)總額的3倍左右。為討論計(jì)，不妨假設(shè)為意大利減債50%——約9,000億歐元，這樣的救助理論上成本仍然低于德國選擇退出歐元。

????退出歐元的成本如此高昂，是因?yàn)槿绻聡幕厥褂米约旱呢泿?，匯率會(huì)很高，難以支撐其出口型經(jīng)濟(jì)。雖然很難預(yù)測(cè)新的德國貨幣匯率將會(huì)如何，最好的猜測(cè)也認(rèn)為可能是1元兌2美元左右，比當(dāng)前的歐元兌美元的匯率高了50%。這意味著50,000美元的中檔奔馳轎車將漲價(jià)至75,000美元。雖然它仍是品質(zhì)優(yōu)異的汽車，但市場(chǎng)上還有很多非德國產(chǎn)的汽車，美國消費(fèi)者可能會(huì)做出其他的選擇。

????為了保持競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，德國政府將不得不向市場(chǎng)大量注入新貨幣，導(dǎo)致節(jié)儉的民眾儲(chǔ)蓄大為縮水，進(jìn)而可能引發(fā)國內(nèi)震蕩，屆時(shí)希臘的騷亂可能只能算是小菜一碟了。

????德國人需要?dú)W元，需要?dú)W元匯率低估才能實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。為此，德國需要希臘和其他邊緣國家留在歐元區(qū)內(nèi)。嘴上說說將希臘趕出歐元區(qū)，說說雙速歐洲可能會(huì)獲得政治加分，但其實(shí)脫離了當(dāng)今歐洲各國經(jīng)濟(jì)相互依存的現(xiàn)實(shí)。

????What's troubling is that the Greek bureaucracy was persuaded to use German companies, not only because of the quality and the common currency, but also because they were paid off. German companies like Siemens (SI), Daimler, Deutsche Bahn, and Ferrostaal have been accused of funneling millions of euros to Greek politicians to secure military and civilian government contracts. In one incident, Siemens allegedly paid 100 million euros to Greek officials to secure a contract to upgrade Athens's telecommunications infrastructure for the 2004 Olympic Games.

????Most of the big-ticket projects executed by German companies helped upgrade Greece's antiquated infrastructure. But there was a reason it was antiquated – Greece is not a rich nation. But with an artificially strong currency and access to cheap debt, the Greeks took the money and ran.

????Would you blame them? The strong currency also meant that the Greek economy became totally uncompetitive. Greece's main exports, like olives, were too expensive to sell abroad. Meanwhile, partying on Greek Island became several times more expensive than partying on a similar one in Turkey. That was fine when the economy was good, but when it seized up, Greece's tourism industry took a dive.

????The weakness in the Greek economy and its big deficits should be expected when Germany's export machine is firing on all cylinders. Since there is so much intra-eurozone trade, a current account surplus in one member naturally means there will be a deficit in another.

A costly exit

????UBS tried to assess what it would cost Germany if it did break away. The analysts figured it would cost around 20% to 25% of the country's GDP or 6,000 to 8,000 euros per German citizen upfront to walk away. It would then cost around 3,500 to 4,000 euros per German citizen every year going forward.

????In contrast, UBS figured that if the eurozone swallowed 50% of the debt of Greece, Ireland and Portugal it would cost a little over 1,000 euros per German in a single hit. That's a much better outcome than going it alone. The study did not include extending a bailout to Italy, which has total debt outstanding that is around three times that of all those nations combined. But for the sake of argument, say one takes a 50% haircut on Italian debt – some 900 billion euros, that bailout would theoretically still cost less to the Germans than it would if they decided to leave the euro.

????The reason it costs so much is because a new German-only currency would be very strong – too strong to support its current export-driven economy. While it's tough to know what the new German currency would be valued at, some of the best guesses have been around two dollars per euro, which is a 50% increase to its current exchange rate with the greenback. That means a mid-range $50,000 Mercedes would now need to be priced at $75,000. While it's still a great quality automobile, there are many of other non-German options that American consumers would probably choose in that case.

????To get competitive, the German government would have to flood the market with their new currency, which would then decimate the savings of their penny-pinching populace. The instability within Germany that would result from such a move would probably make the riots in Greece look like a fun trip to the beer garden.

????The Germans need the euro, but they need it to be weak in order to survive. To do that, they are going to need Greece and the other peripheral countries to stay in. While talk of kicking Greece out of the eurozone and pursuing a two-speed Europe may score some political points, it doesn't reflect the reality of today's interconnected European economy.