德國離不開疲弱的成員國

????之所以出現(xiàn)這樣的局面可能是因為一個人們不愿觸及的真相：德國人從歐元受益頗多——歐元讓他們坐享匯率人為低估優(yōu)勢。通常人們都不愿接受弱勢貨幣——它會讓海外度假活動等變得更為昂貴。但對于德國而言，弱勢貨幣是通往經(jīng)濟繁榮不可或缺的一張船票。德國退出歐元無異于搬起石頭砸自己的腳。

????德國擁有優(yōu)厚的社會保障、相對較高的工資，以及僅有8,000萬的人口，同時也是全球第二大出口國。歐元在這其中扮演了重要角色。自從1999年德國采用歐元以來，德國出口額已經(jīng)翻了一倍還多，從約4,690億歐元升至2010年的1萬多億歐元。這樣的增速是歐元區(qū)其他國家的兩倍。雖然德國人的東西質量確實不錯，但他們能以有競爭力的價格出口這么多商品是因為他們的貨幣相對便宜。

????德國的出口引擎左右開弓。首先，它擴大了對非歐元區(qū)國家的出口。因為如果保持其他條件不變，實際的歐元匯率要低于德國繼續(xù)沿用馬克時的匯率。這是因為歐元覆蓋17個國家，期中大部分國家經(jīng)濟實力較弱，拉低了歐元相對于美元和英鎊的匯率。中國為保出口而人為壓低匯率已飽受詬病。德國卻不必如此——它只需坐下來，看著另一個歐元區(qū)弱國陷入危機，它的出口在世界舞臺上的競爭力就會得到提高。

????我們可以看看德國最新的出口數(shù)據(jù)。雖然歐元區(qū)仍陷于危機之中，雖然整個地區(qū)看來又可能進入一輪衰退，9月份德國出口較前月反而增長了近1%至913億歐元，達到有數(shù)據(jù)記錄以來的最高水平。8月份，危機惡化時，出口較前月增長0.2%。另一方面，9月份德國進口卻減少0.8%，高漲的經(jīng)常項目順差繼續(xù)膨脹。通常，這樣的情況會推動德國貨幣升值，但由于南歐危機重重，歐元貶值，德國出口甚至更有競爭力了。

????其次，弱勢歐元給了德國人一個更大的商品銷售市場。德國約2/3的出口面向歐元區(qū)成員國——只是歐元區(qū)的17個成員國，不是歐盟自由貿易區(qū)的35個成員國。單一貨幣使得交易更加簡單，因為它消除了匯率風險。德國匯率低估意味著西班牙、希臘等經(jīng)濟較弱的國家匯率高估，讓這些國家更能買得起德國商品。因此，難怪德國汽車、德國白色家電、德國電子產品和德國機械設備主導了歐元區(qū)市場。

????要論共同點，希臘與中東鄰國的共同點可能遠多于它與歐元區(qū)伙伴國的共同點，它加入歐元區(qū)之初就已經(jīng)埋下了禍根。新的信貸額度讓希臘民眾和政府開始了花錢如流水的日子。關于希臘官僚機構的高工資已經(jīng)是老生常談。這是事實，但這些只是過去十年這個國家所欠巨額債務的一部分。這個國家還新修了大量道路、機場、以及地鐵系統(tǒng)，并為軍隊采購了最先進的武器。這些項目的背后大多是德國公司。

Germany relies on the weakest members

????It's probably because of a truth that no one likes to talk about: Germans have benefitted greatly from the euro -- it's given them an artificially weak currency. Normally, one would hate to be paid in a weak currency -- among other things, it makes their vacations abroad more expensive. But for Germany, a weak currency has been its ticket to prosperity. If the Germans would leave the euro, they would actually be shooting themselves in the foot.

????Consider that Germany, which has a generous social safety net, relatively high wages and just 80 million people, is the world's second-largest exporting country. The euro has played a significant part in this. German exports have more than doubled since they went on the euro in 1999, going from around 469 billion euros to well over a trillion euros in 2010. The rate of growth was also twice as fast as other nations in the zone. While there is no doubt that the Germans make quality stuff, the reason they are able to export so much at competitive price points is because they are operating with a relatively cheap currency.

????Germany's export engine works two ways. First, it exports more to non-eurozone countries because the exchange rate of the euro is weaker than it would be, all things being equal, if it had stayed on the Deutsche Mark. That's because the euro encompasses 17 nations, many of which are "weak," therefore bringing down the value of the currency relative to the dollar and the pound. China gets a lot of flak for artificially manipulating its currency to maintain its exports. Germany doesn't have to do that – all it needs to do is sit back and watch another weak eurozone nation go down in flames and its exports get more competitive on the world stage.

????Take the latest export data out of Germany. Even though the eurozone is in crisis and the region looks to be headed for another recession, German exports in September rose nearly 1% from the previous month to 91.3 billion euros, which is the highest level since records began. In August, when the crisis hit overdrive, exports were up 0.2% from the previous month. Meanwhile, imports into Germany fell 0.8% for September, increasing the nations burgeoning current account surplus. Normally that would cause Germany's currency to strengthen, but since there was trouble down south, the euro weakened, making German exports even more competitive.

????The second way the euro helps Germany is that it has given them a much larger market to dump their goods. Around two-thirds of German exports go to members of the eurozone – that's just the 17 members part of the common currency, not the 35 that are part of the European Union's free trade area. The euro makes business much simpler as it eliminates foreign exchange risk. An artificially low euro in Germany means an artificially high euro in weaker countries like Spain and Greece. That means those countries can afford to buy German goods. It's therefore no wonder why German cars, white goods, electronics and machinery dominate the eurozone.

????In Greece, a country that arguably shares much more in common with its Middle Eastern neighbors than its eurozone partners, being on the common currency has been a bit of a curse. With access to new credit lines, the Greek populace and its government went on a spending spree. Much has been discussed about how the Greek bureaucracy paid itself lavish wages. While true, that is just part of the massive sovereign debt bill the country rang up in the past decade. The country also paved lots of roads, constructed new airports, tunneled new subway systems and procured state-of-the-art weapons for its military. Behind most of these projects were German companies.