????惠普股價(jià)大跌后，來自Good Haven基金的投資人拉里?皮特考斯基和基思?特勞納也進(jìn)行了一番研究。GoodHaven基金擁有7,000萬美元資金。他們發(fā)現(xiàn)惠普在服務(wù)器領(lǐng)域的老大地位仍然無人能撼動(dòng)，另外惠普的軟件、服務(wù)和打印機(jī)業(yè)務(wù)也是賺錢的。不過他們認(rèn)為過去幾年惠普的運(yùn)營收入應(yīng)該比惠普官方公布的數(shù)據(jù)少了20%，部分原因是由于前CEO馬克?赫德為了滿足華爾街的胃口而削弱了公司的研發(fā)投入。因此惠普今年的每股運(yùn)營收入應(yīng)該不是官方公布的5美元，而是介于3.5美元到4美元之間。即便這樣，惠普的市盈率仍在5%上下?！斑@還能有什么風(fēng)險(xiǎn)？”特勞納反問。

????皮特考斯基和特勞納曾經(jīng)是費(fèi)爾霉姆基金（Fairholme Fund）老板布魯斯?伯克維茨的合伙人，他們經(jīng)常購買其他投資人避之唯恐不及的股票，而且他們這樣做已經(jīng)有很長的歷史了。10年前的科技泡沫時(shí)期，盡管納斯達(dá)克股指一路飆升，他們卻獨(dú)具慧眼地持有了保險(xiǎn)公司和能源公司的股票。他們新成立的GoodHaven基金自今年開張以來已經(jīng)上漲了將近7%，讓競爭對手黯然失色。

????他們二人還談到了另一種研究市盈率的方法：不是用股價(jià)除以收益，而是收益除以股價(jià)。由此產(chǎn)生的“凈收益率”可以告訴投資者，如果理論上收益不變的話，每投資1美元可以帶來多少回報(bào)?；萜盏膬羰找媛蕩缀踹_(dá)20%。

????特勞納稱：“在大部分企業(yè)的凈收益率接近0%的情況下，我們認(rèn)為，我們在惠普身上實(shí)現(xiàn)的凈收益率可能會接近20%，而且惠普還有非常龐大的企業(yè)業(yè)務(wù)基礎(chǔ)?！?/p>

????當(dāng)然，如果營收暴跌，光是有較高的凈收益率也是沒意義的。隨著不景氣的公司的市值變得越來越便宜，凈收益率會產(chǎn)生一個(gè)“價(jià)值陷阱”。不過從特勞納和皮特考斯基看來，惠普的各項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)并不會永遠(yuǎn)下滑?；萜盏姆?wù)業(yè)務(wù)貢獻(xiàn)了公司凈利潤的近40%，而且它還與大量客戶簽訂了長期合同，可謂惠普的定海神針。另外惠普還偷師IBM，利用其服務(wù)器領(lǐng)域的老大地位，拓展利潤更高的軟件和服務(wù)領(lǐng)域。盡管惠普在低端打印機(jī)市場遭到了競爭對手的打擊，但隨著惠普把重心轉(zhuǎn)向利潤率更高的高端打印設(shè)備，惠普仍能保證這個(gè)領(lǐng)域的利潤。

????砍掉WebOS及相關(guān)設(shè)備業(yè)務(wù)給惠普造成的損失高達(dá)10億美元。不過特勞納和皮特考斯基并不認(rèn)為惠普的現(xiàn)金流會在短期內(nèi)干涸。他們認(rèn)為惠普的價(jià)值會漸漸恢復(fù)，一旦惠普理清頭緒，其股價(jià)可能突破40美元。

????惠普的股票看起來似乎不如蘋果的股票來錢快。惠普在歐洲有大量業(yè)務(wù)，因此歐洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，加上美國銷量的不景氣，都會對給惠普帶來壓力。但這也正是為什么有些投資者認(rèn)為現(xiàn)在買入惠普股票正是時(shí)候。

????譯者：樸成奎

????Investors Larry Pitkowsky and Keith Trauner of the $70-million GoodHaven Fund (GOODX) also studied HP as shares declined this year. What they found was a company with a No. 1 position in servers and cash-generating businesses in software, services, and printers. They assumed HP's operating earnings over the past few years should have been 20% less than what was reported, in part because former CEO Mark Hurd was starving the company of R&D to satisfy Wall Street. So instead of almost $5 in operating earnings per share this year, HP will really earn more like $3.50 to $4 per share. That still works out to a mid-single digit price-to-earnings ratio. "What are you risking?" asks Trauner.

????Former partners of Bruce Berkowitz at the Fairholme Fund, Pitkowsky and Trauner have long histories buying stocks that others avoid. During last decade's tech bubble they held insurers and energy companies as the Nasdaq rocketed upward. Their new GoodHaven fund is pounding competitors, rising almost 7% since opening this year.

????The two talk about another way to look at price-to-earnings ratios. Instead of dividing price by earnings, you can do the opposite: divide earnings by the stock price. That produces an "earnings yield" and gives investors an idea, in theory, of what each dollar invested should return if earnings never change. HP's earnings yield is almost 20%.

????"In a near zero percent world," says Trauner, "we think we're approaching a 20% earnings yield on something where there really is a very large institutional base of business."

????Of course, a high earnings yield is meaningless if earnings fall off a cliff. That would create a value trap as declining businesses get cheaper and cheaper. But from what Trauner and Pitkowsky can tell, HP's businesses aren't undergoing permanent declines. The services business contributes almost 40% of profits and is anchored by large, and long-term contracts with customers. HP is borrowing a page from IBM (IBM) and building off its No. 1 position in servers into higher-margin software and services. And even though competitors are beating it in the low-priced printer market, HP is preserving profits by moving into higher-end, higher-margin printing devices.

????HP's taking a $1 billion charge to shut down its mobile operating system's devices business. But Trauner and Pitkowsky don't see HP's cash flows drying up anytime soon. They expect the value of HP to rise over time, and once things are sorted out, the stock to fetch more than $40.

????HP stock doesn't look like it could earn a quick buck like Apple's. Economic issues in Europe, where it does a lot of business, and sluggish sales in the U.S. are weighing on the company. But that's exactly why some investors think the stock is a deal today.