????惠普（Hewlett-Packard）看起來(lái)就像走了另一個(gè)極端的蘋(píng)果。由于管理不善，惠普股價(jià)今年下跌了35%，只是在最近才稍有回彈。相比之下，盡管喬幫主逝世，CEO換帥，但蘋(píng)果的股價(jià)今年還是飆升了25%。惠普在平板電腦市場(chǎng)無(wú)功而返，而蘋(píng)果的iPad卻仍然賣得異?；鸨ＴS多手握數(shù)以十億計(jì)美元的投資機(jī)構(gòu)似乎已經(jīng)放棄了惠普，但他們對(duì)蘋(píng)果的未來(lái)卻抱有十足的信心。因此現(xiàn)在蘋(píng)果已經(jīng)成了全球市值最高的公司，超過(guò)了?？松梨冢‥xxon Mobil）的兩倍。

????如果我說(shuō)眼下咱們先忽視蘋(píng)果一會(huì)兒，再給惠普的股票一次機(jī)會(huì)，你會(huì)不會(huì)覺(jué)得我在散布異端邪說(shuō)？但有些價(jià)值型投資者就是這么說(shuō)的。上個(gè)月他們有了更多的證據(jù)來(lái)支持自己的觀點(diǎn)。比如伯恩斯坦公司（Bernstein）的分析師托尼?薩克納西，他對(duì)蘋(píng)果公司的預(yù)測(cè)經(jīng)常成為媒體頭條?；萜盏墓蓛r(jià)從49美元跌到22美元后，薩克納西做了一番數(shù)據(jù)研究，發(fā)現(xiàn)惠普的股價(jià)十分便宜，甚至差不多是歷史上最便宜的。它的股價(jià)僅為未來(lái)12個(gè)月預(yù)期收益的5.5倍。自從1990年以來(lái)，還從來(lái)沒(méi)有哪個(gè)大型科技公司的股票達(dá)到或低于這個(gè)水平——除了近期同樣萎靡不振的黑莓手機(jī)制造商RIM。

????《財(cái)富》雜志（Fortune）在11月7號(hào)的雜志中首次刊登了這個(gè)消息。此后，惠普的股價(jià)已升至28美元，上漲了22%。不過(guò)有些價(jià)值型投資者卻認(rèn)為，惠普的股價(jià)至少可以增長(zhǎng)到40美元區(qū)間。

????投資者對(duì)惠普的失望不難理解。自從前CEO李艾科上任以來(lái)，惠普連續(xù)三次調(diào)低了銷售預(yù)期。后來(lái)惠普推出了自己的WebOS移動(dòng)操作系統(tǒng)和一些搭載了該系統(tǒng)的相關(guān)設(shè)備，同時(shí)興奮地大談特談它們的發(fā)展?jié)摿Γ蝗欢胚^(guò)了半年，這些設(shè)備就夭折了。然后在今年八月，李艾科宣布惠普斥資100億美元收購(gòu)了軟件制造商Autonomy，在某些投資者看來(lái)，這筆交易的價(jià)格實(shí)在高得有些離譜。后來(lái)李艾科又宣布惠普打算剝離市值410億美元的PC業(yè)務(wù)。好在上周惠普改變了主意，終于讓華爾街歡呼雀躍了一回。

????李艾科的繼任者梅格?惠特曼是否勝任CEO一職尚無(wú)定論?；萏芈蝒Bay首席執(zhí)行官，但eBay只有15,000多名員工，而且eBay的業(yè)務(wù)是面向消費(fèi)者的業(yè)務(wù)；惠普員工多達(dá)32萬(wàn)人，而且它的業(yè)務(wù)主要是面向企業(yè)，因此許多分析師都懷疑她是否能夠挑起這個(gè)重?fù)?dān)。

????不過(guò)有些正在買入惠普股票的價(jià)值型投資者卻認(rèn)為這個(gè)問(wèn)題可能并不重要。比如經(jīng)驗(yàn)老道的投資者沃利?威茨就認(rèn)為，雖然從目前的股價(jià)來(lái)看，市場(chǎng)都說(shuō)惠普已經(jīng)破產(chǎn)了，但是在他看來(lái)，惠普盡管受到重創(chuàng)，但它仍是一個(gè)堅(jiān)實(shí)可靠的科技巨頭，在打印機(jī)和服務(wù)領(lǐng)域也有堅(jiān)實(shí)的循環(huán)現(xiàn)金流。威茨說(shuō)：“讓我們稍微感到欣慰的是，惠普的一些個(gè)別業(yè)務(wù)是好的，至少是比較不錯(cuò)的?！彼诰旁碌踪I入了惠普的股份，賭定股市一定會(huì)出現(xiàn)過(guò)度反應(yīng)。

????Hewlett-Packard looks like Apple's polar opposite. HP's stock is down 35% this year, despite a recent bump, thanks to horrendous management; Apple's shares shot up 25% amid a CEO change. HP failed to create a hit tablet; Apple's iPad is still selling like crazy. And institutional investors who control billions seem to have given up on HP while those same investors believe enough in Apple's future to make it the world's most valuable company -- worth more than even Exxon Mobil (XOM).

????So is it heretical to suggest that you ignore Apple (AAPL) for the moment and give HP (HPQ) shares another shot? That's what some value investors are saying. And last month they got more ammunition. Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi, who usually grabs headlines for his Apple forecasts, did some number crunching after HP's shares fell from $49 to $22 and found that HP is cheap -- like historically cheap. It's trading at 5.5 times expected earnings for the next 12 months. No large technology stock -- other than that of reeling Blackberry-maker RIM (RIMM) -- has traded at that level or below since 1990.

????Fortune first reported this story in its Nov. 7th issue. Since then, HP's stock has jumped 22% to $28. But these value investors still see a stock than can at least grow into the $40s.

????Investors' frustration with HP is pretty easy to dissect. Since former CEO Leo Apotheker took over last November, the company lowered sales forecasts three times. It killed devices for its mobile operating system half a year after excitedly talking up their possibilities. Then in August, Apotheker announced HP's $10 billion acquisition of software-maker Autonomy that seemed a little too rich to some investors. He followed it up with news that HP was exploring a spinoff of its $41-billion PC business. Which was finally reversed last week, to Wall Street cheers.

????Whether his replacement Meg Whitman is the right fit is anybody's guess. Analysts have wondered whether Whitman, who as CEO of eBay (EBAY) managed the site's 15,000 employees and its consumer-focused business, can lead HP's 320,000 employees and the enterprise-focused company.

????The value investors buying HP stock say it may not matter. Veteran Wally Weitz thinks at its current share price, the market is saying HP is broken. He sees a solid, albeit banged-up, tech giant with solid recurring cash flows in printers and services. "We've tried to get comfort that the individual businesses are good or at least pretty good," says Weitz. He bought shares in late September, betting on a market overreaction.