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《余震》的生意經(jīng):兜售全球經(jīng)濟末日論

《余震》的生意經(jīng):兜售全球經(jīng)濟末日論

Brendan Coffey 2011-09-06
韋德默兄弟的新書鼓吹新一輪的全球經(jīng)濟危機不可避免,但新書熱銷所帶來收入的只是蠅頭小利。新書給人們敲響了警鐘,精明的作者因勢利導,順水推舟,乘勢搭建了一個價值數(shù)百萬美元的商業(yè)王國。

????羅伯特?韋德默

????在成為政府顧問之前,擁有威斯康星大學麥迪遜分校(the University of Wisconsin-Madison)工商管理碩士學位的羅伯特,曾開了一家名為Pricesaroundtheworld.com的網(wǎng)站,結(jié)果成了互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫的炮灰(《余震》一書中嘲笑互聯(lián)網(wǎng)時代“泡沫一代”高管們的素材可能就來自于這段經(jīng)歷)。在過去的8年當中,他一直擔任通訊公司Proxim Wireless的董事會成員,該公司在場外電子交易板交易,并于2004年草率收購了Ricochet公司(保爾?阿倫曾于90年代通過該公司在各大城市推廣無線網(wǎng)絡)。

????在90年代,兄弟二人合伙建立并經(jīng)營Imark Technologies公司,這家在納斯達克上市的公司籍籍無名,大衛(wèi)在書中的自傳部分提到自己曾在這家公司擔任的首席執(zhí)行官。 Imark公司主要為出版公司提供CD-Rom資源。1998年,該公司制定的由出版商通過網(wǎng)絡銷售CD-Rom數(shù)據(jù)的商業(yè)計劃以失敗告終,公司也隨之壽終正寢。然而自傳當中對此事只字未提。

????《余震》的第三位共同作者辛迪?斯必茨透露,她曾為《心靈雞湯》(Chicken Soup)原著的部分內(nèi)容代筆?!队嗾稹返臅怙@示她現(xiàn)在是余震顧問公司(Aftershock Consultants)的總裁,該公司主要向個人或公司提供有關此書的解讀服務。在就任該職之前,她與多瑞?琳博士在去年年底共同編寫了《成人性事》(Sex for Grownups)一書。

????這些背景并不能說明韋德默兄弟關于金融災難的預言就是錯誤的。大衛(wèi)的確從威斯康辛大學(the University of Wisconsin)拿到了經(jīng)濟學博士學位,而且這三人的第一本書《美國的泡沫經(jīng)濟》(America's Bubble Economy)是一本相對嚴肅的書籍,書中也確實指出了美國房地產(chǎn)市場所存在的不平衡性。但是當韋德默兄弟以此書的觀點來炫耀自己獨到的經(jīng)濟眼光和投資技巧時,他們其實更多地在證明營銷的威力?!睹绹呐菽?jīng)濟》一書希望讓讀者了解“泡沫在經(jīng)濟和社會長期發(fā)展中所扮演的角色?!比欢聲队嗾稹穮s傳達了一個更為直白的信息:“新一輪全球金融危機來臨之前還有時間來保護你自己、你的家人和你的生意”。

????不過,兜售末日觀點頗有些諷刺意味,因為個人投資者都是墻頭草,而且投資電子通訊和顧問服務的更新率與市場動向時刻保持步調(diào)一致。資產(chǎn)管理也是一樣。如果韋德默兄弟所預言的經(jīng)濟地震發(fā)生,韋德默兄弟將失去所有的收入來源,或至少絕大部分來源。大衛(wèi)表示:“人們總還是要投資的,蛋糕雖然會變小,但是我們分到的份額會變大。”

???

????Before consulting for the government, Robert, who has an MBA in marketing from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, tried his hand running Pricesaroundtheworld.com, a dotcom-era bust. (The experience may be the source of the scorn Aftershock heaps upon Internet-era "Bubble babies" executives.) For the past eight years, he has been on the board of Proxim Wireless, a bulletin board-traded communications firm that in 2004 ill-advisedly scooped up the carcass of Ricochet, a 1990s Paul Allen effort to bring Wi-Fi to cities.

????Also in the 1990s, the brothers co-founded and ran Imark Technologies, the unnamed "Nasdaq-listed company" in which David's book biography mentions he was CEO. The bio fails to note that Imark, which provided CD-Rom resources to publishing companies, went bankrupt in 1998 when a business plan to get publishers to sell CD-Rom data over the Internet foundered.

????Aftershock's third co-author, Cindy Spitzer, says she ghostwrote part of the original Chicken Soup for the Soul. According to Aftershock's book jacket, she is now president of Aftershock Consultants, which provides insights to individuals and companies based on the book. Just before taking on that title she co-wrote Sex for Grownups with Dr. Doree Lynn late last year.

????All of this background doesn't mean the Wiedemers might not be correct that we're racing toward a financial catastrophe. David does have a PhD in Economics from the University of Wisconsin, and the trio's first book, the far more sedate America's Bubble Economy, did point out the imbalance in the housing market. But while the Wiedemers use the claims of their first book as proof of their economic and investing prowess, it's really more correctly proof of the power of marketing. America's Bubble Economy told readers it would "look at how the bubbles are a part of the long-term evolution of the economy and society." With the new edition of Aftershock the message has gotten a lot less oblique: "There is still time to protect yourself, your family, and your business in the next global money meltdown."

????The irony with selling the apocalypse is that individual investors are a fickle lot -- renewal rates to investment newsletters and advice services move in lockstep with how the market is doing. The same is true with asset management. Should the economic hell the Wiedemers predict come to pass, it would dry up all of their revenue sources. Or almost all of them. "They've always got to invest in something," notes David. "We'll get a bigger share of a smaller pie."

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