????對德國來說，兩種情形的代價都將十分高昂。德國從歐元中獲益匪淺，正如著名的國際經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家羅伯特?阿利伯所說：“德國生產(chǎn)力增長速度比其鄰國快得多，因此隨著時間流逝，其出口競爭力也越來越大?！?/p>

????實(shí)際上，歐元人為地使德國產(chǎn)品在國際市場上特別廉價，同時使意大利、葡萄牙和希臘等脆弱經(jīng)濟(jì)體的產(chǎn)品過于昂貴。與過去的德國馬克相比，歐元相當(dāng)“疲軟”，給德國帶來了競爭優(yōu)勢，使其對中國和其他亞洲國家的出口蓬勃增長，其中，汽車和機(jī)械設(shè)備尤為暢銷。

????簡而言之，歐元區(qū)給德國帶來了巨額貿(mào)易順差，同時給其南歐伙伴國家?guī)砹司揞~逆差。如果歐元區(qū)瓦解，意大利、西班牙和希臘貨幣的匯率將會急劇下跌，大幅降低其物價，促進(jìn)商品出口，同時遏制進(jìn)口，這些國家的貿(mào)易赤字以及國際市場對德國商品的需求將會驟然下降。德國則會面臨恰恰與此相反的效應(yīng)，新馬克相對于其貿(mào)易伙伴的貨幣的匯率將會飆升，其汽車和機(jī)械設(shè)備在國際市場上的價格將遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于現(xiàn)有水平。受此影響，亞洲自己的機(jī)械工業(yè)將迎來發(fā)展良機(jī)。

????一夜之間，德國就會喪失在全球市場呼風(fēng)喚雨的地位，該國繁榮賴以存在的龐大貿(mào)易順差將會迅速消失殆盡。

????“一旦德國的貿(mào)易盈余不復(fù)存在，該國將會陷入嚴(yán)重衰退，”希臘著名的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家雅尼斯?瓦魯法克斯說。過去十年來，德國的國際競爭力之所以強(qiáng)大，除了廉價貨幣的因素外，也與該國限制工資漲幅有關(guān)。可是，這種薪酬政策創(chuàng)造了龐大的工薪貧困階層，也就是擁有工作但工資很低，因此仍然夠得上福利發(fā)放標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的人群。瓦魯法克斯指出：“貨幣升值后，德國企業(yè)若想要恢復(fù)競爭力，就得通過裁員降低成本，因此退出歐元意味著工薪貧困階層有可能淪為失業(yè)者?！?/p>

????默克爾顯然非常明白堅持原則的代價。因此，可能出現(xiàn)這樣的情形：歐洲央行和歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金無法長期壓低國債收益率，屆時歐洲將迎來攤牌時刻，德國將作出重大的歷史性讓步，鼎力保衛(wèi)歐元區(qū)——這個體系雖志存高遠(yuǎn)，卻從未給經(jīng)濟(jì)相對脆弱的成員國帶來經(jīng)濟(jì)上的改觀，但它畢竟使德國獲益匪淺，而盟友們現(xiàn)在正絕望地渴求德國的回報。

????譯 小宇

????For Germany, the costs of either scenario would be enormous. Germany has profited mightily from the euro. "It has shown far more rapid gains in productivity than its neighbors," says Robert Aliber, the distinguished international economist. "So over time, its exports have become more and more competitive."

????In effect, the euro made German products artificially cheap on world market, and rendered those of weaker economies such as Italy, Portugal and Greece excessively expensive. The edge of a "weak" currency, compared to the old Deutsche Mark, also enabled Germany to garner booming sales in China and other Asian countries hungry for its cars and machine tools.

????In effect, the eurozone helped bring big surpluses to Germany, and large deficits to its southern partners. If it splinters, the exchange rates for Italian, Spanish and Greek currencies would fall sharply, lowering the prices, and raising sales, of their exports, and doing the opposite with imports. Their deficits -- and demand for German goods -- would collapse. Germany would suffer from the reverse effect. Its Neue Mark would soar versus its trading partners' currencies, making its cars and machine tools far more expensive around the globe. Asia will have another reason to make its own machinery.

????Overnight, Germany will lose its status as a conqueror on world markets. Its enormous trade surplus, the source of its prosperity, would quickly vanish.

????"Once the German surpluses are gone, the country would fall into a severe recession," says prominent Greek economist Yanis Varoufakis. Germany has succeeded in the past decade of becoming highly competitive not just by maintaining a relatively cheap currency, but by limiting the growth in wages. But that policy created a large contingent of working poor, people who have jobs but also qualify for welfare payments because of their low salaries. "To restore competitiveness after their currency appreciates, German companies would need lower costs by laying off workers. So exiting the euro risks turning the working poor into the unemployed," says Varoufakis.

????It's certain that Merkel is acutely aware of the price of clinging to principle. Hence, the probable outcome is the following: The ECB and the EFSF won't succeed at holding down rates for long. The moment of reckoning will indeed arrive. And Germany will make a grand and historic concession to protect the eurozone, the system that so enriched it, and despite its grand ambitions, did nothing to improve the performance of the weak partners now desperately seeking its help in return.