????上周四，美國(guó)股市出現(xiàn)大幅拋售，根源或許來(lái)自歐洲，因?yàn)閷?duì)意大利和西班牙主權(quán)債務(wù)違約的擔(dān)憂(yōu)造成市場(chǎng)恐慌，投資者紛紛拋售股票以避免損失。兩周之前，美國(guó)債務(wù)上限談判占據(jù)了焦點(diǎn)位置，暫時(shí)分散了投資者對(duì)歐洲嚴(yán)重的債務(wù)危機(jī)的關(guān)注。但隨著美國(guó)債務(wù)上限問(wèn)題表面上塵埃落定，歐洲重新成為投資者關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)，但情況卻不容樂(lè)觀。

????歐洲央行（European Central Bank）試圖緩解市場(chǎng)的恐慌情緒，但結(jié)果卻使問(wèn)題進(jìn)一步惡化。目前，歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)似乎已經(jīng)進(jìn)入最后階段，因此歐洲的高層正忙著想方設(shè)法避免對(duì)歐元的全面擠兌。上周五，在歐洲交易的西班牙與意大利的國(guó)債收益率小幅回調(diào)，原因是市場(chǎng)指望法國(guó)和德國(guó)能拿出有效的方案，收拾當(dāng)前的爛攤子。但到目前為止，這兩個(gè)國(guó)家都沒(méi)有出臺(tái)任何相應(yīng)的措施。但不論他們采取哪種措施，當(dāng)務(wù)之急是要快速恢復(fù)市場(chǎng)的信心，否則當(dāng)前的救助措施可能演變成為投降的信號(hào)。

????上周四重現(xiàn)了2008年秋天的情形。被拋售的不僅包括股票。由于恐慌的投資者急于把所有資金變現(xiàn)，因此常被認(rèn)為可以保值的石油和黃金價(jià)格均出現(xiàn)下跌。不過(guò)，隨后一天公布的一份強(qiáng)勁的就業(yè)報(bào)告宛如一針強(qiáng)心劑，使市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)反彈。

????投資者變現(xiàn)的現(xiàn)金全部涌入了美國(guó)的托管銀行。于是，最大的托管銀行紐約梅隆銀行（Bank of New York Mellon）開(kāi)始向機(jī)構(gòu)客戶(hù)收取費(fèi)用，用于保管他們認(rèn)為的“超高”數(shù)額的現(xiàn)金——因?yàn)槿狈ν顿Y渠道，銀行的現(xiàn)金水平越高，則意味著需要繳納更高的美國(guó)聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司（FDIC）費(fèi)用。

????眾所周知，如果連銀行都不希望客戶(hù)存錢(qián)，這說(shuō)明情況已經(jīng)非常糟糕。這一切到底是如何發(fā)生的呢？歐洲的主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)發(fā)展緩慢，投資者的注意力被美國(guó)債務(wù)上限談判的鬧劇所打斷。但美國(guó)和歐洲的債務(wù)困境存在明顯的差別?？傮w來(lái)看，當(dāng)前美國(guó)的債務(wù)危機(jī)很大程度上屬于自討苦吃。投資者依然愿意購(gòu)買(mǎi)美國(guó)國(guó)債。但歐洲則截然相反，投資者對(duì)于是否應(yīng)該購(gòu)買(mǎi)歐元區(qū)外圍國(guó)家的國(guó)債猶豫不決，迫使國(guó)債收益率不斷攀升。上周，意大利和西班牙的國(guó)債收益率超過(guò)了6%，與德國(guó)國(guó)債的差距達(dá)到了新高。

????為了應(yīng)對(duì)這一狀況，上周四，歐洲央行宣布重新購(gòu)買(mǎi)歐元區(qū)成員國(guó)的國(guó)債。這一充滿(mǎn)爭(zhēng)議的舉措表面上看似乎是歐洲央行自行承擔(dān)了歐元區(qū)外圍成員國(guó)的債務(wù)。但這一旨在重建市場(chǎng)信心的措施似乎適得其反。投資者擔(dān)心，歐洲央行開(kāi)啟第二輪購(gòu)買(mǎi)債券的措施可能會(huì)力不從心，從而造成一種虛假的安全感。

干預(yù)適得其反

????去年五月份，歐洲央行直接干預(yù)債券市場(chǎng)，被認(rèn)為給部分歐元區(qū)核心成員國(guó)，尤其是德國(guó)造成了困擾。因此，歐盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人在上個(gè)月同意將干預(yù)債券市場(chǎng)的職責(zé)轉(zhuǎn)交給歐洲金融穩(wěn)定機(jī)構(gòu)（European Financial Stability Facility）。該基金由歐元區(qū)核心成員國(guó)于去年成立，目的是為歐元區(qū)外圍國(guó)家的一攬子救援計(jì)劃提供支持。目前，若歐元區(qū)成員國(guó)無(wú)法為自己的國(guó)債找到買(mǎi)主，可以由該基金全部買(mǎi)進(jìn)。

????但EFSF依然未獲得進(jìn)行交易的授權(quán)——購(gòu)買(mǎi)計(jì)劃必須獲得歐元區(qū)所有成員國(guó)議會(huì)的批準(zhǔn)。而且，EFSF也沒(méi)有足夠的資金。由于EFSF本身也需要發(fā)行債券來(lái)支付其買(mǎi)進(jìn)的所有壞賬，因此，為了維持其3A信用評(píng)級(jí)，該基金只能購(gòu)買(mǎi)價(jià)值3，000億歐元的債券。這筆資金足以滿(mǎn)足希臘的短期資金需求，但要想同時(shí)支撐希臘、葡萄牙和愛(ài)爾蘭的資金需求，這點(diǎn)資金無(wú)異于杯水車(chē)薪。

????而在大約一個(gè)月以前，歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)已經(jīng)蔓延到歐元區(qū)分別排名第三和第四位的經(jīng)濟(jì)體——意大利和西班牙。要滿(mǎn)足這兩個(gè)國(guó)家償還債務(wù)的需求，EFSF更顯得囊中羞澀。僅今年一年，意大利的資金需求預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到4，250億歐元——幾乎相當(dāng)于整個(gè)EFSF全部的資金數(shù)量。盡管EFSF已經(jīng)募集了約2，770億歐元，但依然有1，500億歐元的缺口。今年，西班牙還需要募集380億歐元，使這兩個(gè)國(guó)家需要的資金總額達(dá)到約1，880億歐元。

????歐洲央行繞過(guò)EFSF買(mǎi)進(jìn)問(wèn)題國(guó)家國(guó)債的舉措向倫敦和華爾街的投資者發(fā)出了一個(gè)信號(hào)：歐洲央行的大本營(yíng)法蘭克福也已經(jīng)陷入恐慌。日前，歐洲央行僅買(mǎi)進(jìn)了愛(ài)爾蘭和葡萄牙的國(guó)債，但投資者對(duì)《財(cái)富》（Fortune）雜志表示，在未來(lái)幾天，這一機(jī)構(gòu)還將會(huì)大筆買(mǎi)進(jìn)意大利和西班牙的國(guó)債。由于意大利和西班牙的國(guó)債將在五到十年內(nèi)到期，因此如果這兩個(gè)國(guó)家無(wú)法以合理的利率在公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)募得資金，便必須靠ECB提供大量現(xiàn)金才能渡過(guò)難關(guān)。

????而市場(chǎng)在上周四發(fā)出的信號(hào)是，市場(chǎng)對(duì)歐洲央行作為歐元區(qū)成員國(guó)最終貸款人的新角色并不抱任何信心。畢竟，僅意大利債務(wù)市場(chǎng)就需要約1.8萬(wàn)億歐元。歐洲央行根本無(wú)力為意大利提供保障，更不用說(shuō)同時(shí)保護(hù)其他金豬四國(guó)（PIIGS）。更糟糕的是，部分所謂的歐元區(qū)核心成員國(guó)之間也開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)分歧。日前，法國(guó)和比利時(shí)的主權(quán)債務(wù)也已經(jīng)攀升到危險(xiǎn)的水平，而且可能繼續(xù)惡化。

????與美國(guó)的情形不同，歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)的蔓延就像快速傳播的瘟疫，正愈演愈烈。投資者們慌不擇路地逃離歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)“疫區(qū)”，將股票、債券和大宗商品變現(xiàn)。這種狀況就好像這些國(guó)家的主權(quán)債券出現(xiàn)銀行擠兌，而歐洲央行則擔(dān)任著美國(guó)聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司的角色。但即便強(qiáng)大如后者，它也沒(méi)有足夠的資金為美國(guó)的所有銀行提供緊急救助。

????美國(guó)的銀行系統(tǒng)之所以能夠渡過(guò)難關(guān)，主要是因?yàn)橥顿Y者對(duì)該系統(tǒng)抱有信心。因此，要想拯救歐元區(qū)外圍國(guó)家，投資者也必須對(duì)歐洲央行和它的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)能力充滿(mǎn)信心。如果信心無(wú)法恢復(fù)，歐洲的債務(wù)危機(jī)可能會(huì)迅速蔓延到其他主要市場(chǎng)。

????（翻譯 劉進(jìn)龍）

????The massive selloff in U.S. markets on Thursday appears rooted in Europe as fears of a sovereign debt default in Italy and Spain caused traders to panic and run for cover. The markets had temporarily turned away from the crippling debt crisis in Europe two weeks ago as the debt ceiling debate in the U.S. took center stage. But with that issue ostensibly settled, traders turned their attention back to Europe – and they didn't like what they saw.

????The European Central Bank attempted to ease the market's fears, but it seemed to have only exacerbated the problem. European leaders are now scrambling to avoid an all-out run on the euro as the European sovereign debt crisis enters a possible terminal phase. Spanish and Italian bond yields rallied slightly in European trading on Friday on the hopes that France and Germany will come up with some sort of solution to the current imbroglio. So far, neither side has come up with a solution. Whatever they do, they will need to act fast to restore market confidence or the current correction could turn to capitulation.

????Scenes of the fall of 2008 were evident yesterday. And the sell-off was not just reserved for equities -- oil and gold, which normally act as a storage of wealth, also fell as worried investors put all their money in cash. The market rebounded following a strong jobs report this morning.

????All this cash is being dumped into custodial banks in the U.S. This led the Bank of New York Mellon (BK), the largest custodial bank, to start charging its institutional clients a fee for depositing what they consider an "extraordinarily high" amount of cash -- it has no place to invest it either, and higher cash levels mean higher FDIC fees.

????You know it's bad when even the banks don't want your money. So how did this all happen? The farcical debate on the debt ceiling temporarily distracted traders from the slow-motion sovereign debt crisis in Europe. There are stark differences between the debt dilemmas in the U.S. and Europe. In general, the current U.S. debt crisis is largely a self imposed one. Investors still want to buy U.S. debt. Conversely, in Europe, investors are hesitant to buy the debt of the peripheral nations of the eurozone, forcing bond yields to skyrocket. Yields on Italian and Spanish debt passed 6% this week, hitting a record differential to German government bonds.

????In response, the European Central Bank announced on Thursday that it would restart a controversial program of buying up the sovereign debt of member nations. The move would ostensibly place the obligations of the peripheral euro member states on to its balance sheet. But this confidence building measure seems to have backfired. Investors fear that the ECB could be biting off way more than it can chew by initiating this second round of bond buying, leading to a false sense of security.

When intervention backfires

????Direct ECB intervention in the bond markets last May was seen as troubling to some of the eurozone's core members, especially Germany. That's why EU leaders agreed last month to transfer this role to the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). This fund, which was set up last year by core euro members to support rescue packages in the eurozone periphery, would now be allowed to buy up the debt of member nations who were having a hard time finding willing buyers for their bonds.

????But the EFSF still is not authorized to make any purchases -- the plan must be approved by every euro member's parliament. Furthermore, the EFSF doesn't appear to have enough cash for the job. To maintain its triple-A credit rating, as the EFSF issues its own bonds to pay for all the bad debt it buys up, it could only really acquire around 300 billion euros worth of debt. That would have been sufficient to cover the short term funding needs of Greece, but it appears to be woefully inadequate to backstop the funding needs of Greece, Portugal and Ireland at the same time.

????But around a month ago the contagion had spread to Italy and Spain, the eurozone's third and fourth-largest economies, respectively. The EFSF couldn't even make a dent in covering the debt requirements of these countries. Italy's funding needs this year alone is projected to be 425 billion euros – nearly the entire EFSF. It has already raised around 277 billion euros, but still has around 150 billion euros left to raise. Spain has about 38 billion euros left to raise this year, bringing the total amount the two nations need to around 188 billion euros.

????The ECB's move to bypass the EFSF and buy up troubled sovereign debt signaled to many traders in the City of London and Wall Street that panic was setting in on the streets of Frankfurt, the home of the ECB. The ECB was seen buying up only Irish and Portuguese bonds yesterday, but traders tell Fortune that they were looking into buying large blocks of Italian and Spanish debt in the coming days. Italian and Spanish bonds have much of their debt maturing in the next five to 10 years, so they will need large amounts of cash from the ECB to stay afloat if they aren't able to raise funds in the open markets at reasonable interest rates.

????Nevertheless, the market signaled on Thursday that it had no faith in the ECB's new role of being this sort of lender of last resort to its member nations. After all, the Italian debt market alone is around 1.8 trillion euros. Not even the ECB could wrap its arms around that one - yet alone wrap its arms around all the other PIIGS nations at the same time. To make matters worse, cracks are beginning to form in some of the so-called core eurozone members. Yields on French and Belgian sovereign bonds started to climb into dangerous territory yesterday and could continue on their way up.

????Unlike with the U.S., the European debt contagion appears to be a fast moving disease, which is picking up steam. Investors are trying to position themselves as far away from the contagion as possible, opting to liquidate equities, bonds and commodities into plain old cash. The situation is somewhat analogous to a bank run on the sovereign bonds of these countries, with the ECB acting as the FDIC. But even as hefty as the FDIC is today, it doesn't have enough cash to bailout every single bank in the U.S.

????The reason the U.S. banking system stays afloat is because people believe in the system. Therefore, if the eurozone periphery is to be saved, investors need to believe in the ECB and its leadership. If confidence doesn't return, the European contagion could quickly spread to all major markets.