????美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)議員們計(jì)劃提高14.3萬(wàn)億美元債務(wù)上限談判仍在進(jìn)行，緊張氣氛席卷了整個(gè)華盛頓。雖然8月2日的最終期限越來(lái)越近，但談判仍未取得任何突破性進(jìn)展，這一僵局使美國(guó)政府陷入信貸評(píng)級(jí)下調(diào)的危險(xiǎn)處境。

????從各層面來(lái)看，評(píng)級(jí)下調(diào)對(duì)美國(guó)整體經(jīng)濟(jì)都不是利好消息。其中備受關(guān)注的一點(diǎn)是它可能對(duì)消費(fèi)者產(chǎn)生的影響：美國(guó)國(guó)債利率上揚(yáng)將導(dǎo)致借貸成本提高，從住房按揭貸款到汽車(chē)和助學(xué)貸款，無(wú)一能夠幸免。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)目前仍處于從深度衰退中慢慢復(fù)蘇的脆弱時(shí)期，這樣的沖擊可能將使美國(guó)重新陷入低迷。

????然而，輿論較少提及評(píng)級(jí)下調(diào)對(duì)各州可能產(chǎn)生的影響。

????上周，穆迪投資者服務(wù)公司(Moody's Investor Services)將馬里蘭、新墨西哥、南卡羅來(lái)納、田納西和弗吉尼亞這五個(gè)州置于可能下調(diào)評(píng)級(jí)的監(jiān)控之下。這五個(gè)州仍在當(dāng)前擁有卓越AAA信用評(píng)級(jí)的15個(gè)州之列。穆迪之所以這么做是因?yàn)檫@五個(gè)州相對(duì)來(lái)說(shuō)更依賴(lài)于聯(lián)邦資金——不論是醫(yī)療補(bǔ)助，還是政府合同等，而提高債務(wù)上限的任何政策都可能涉及到削減開(kāi)支。

????具有諷刺意味的是，這五個(gè)州中的大多數(shù)（南卡羅來(lái)納、田納西和弗吉尼亞）都被視為共和黨選區(qū)，絕大多數(shù)民眾都支持共和黨——而共和黨卻叫囂著要大幅削減預(yù)算，從醫(yī)療保健到社會(huì)保障金。南卡羅來(lái)納州之所以進(jìn)入監(jiān)控名單，是因?yàn)槟碌?MCO)將該州在聯(lián)邦合同和醫(yī)療補(bǔ)助金方面的脆弱不堪納入考量因素。而田納西州和弗吉尼亞州則是因?yàn)榻?jīng)濟(jì)狀況高度依賴(lài)聯(lián)邦政府。

????如果美國(guó)不能保住其AAA信用評(píng)級(jí)，穆迪表示將對(duì)五個(gè)州的情況逐一進(jìn)行評(píng)估。但無(wú)論最終結(jié)果如何，穆迪的警告并不意味著當(dāng)?shù)卣賳T無(wú)法使自己的財(cái)政狀況走上正軌。以弗吉尼亞為例，該州最近發(fā)布了連續(xù)第二年的預(yù)算盈余。聯(lián)邦政府有權(quán)印制鈔票，有權(quán)對(duì)促進(jìn)就業(yè)和提振經(jīng)濟(jì)的政策頒布施加壓力。但州政府與聯(lián)邦政府不同，它們歸根結(jié)底必須平衡好各自的預(yù)算。

????不少華爾街銀行業(yè)人士表示，他們?nèi)哉J(rèn)為美國(guó)可以避免違約。但誰(shuí)也無(wú)法確定降低評(píng)級(jí)可能會(huì)帶來(lái)的總體影響——不論是對(duì)聯(lián)邦政府而言，還是對(duì)各州或各地而言。

????即使如此，各州評(píng)級(jí)下調(diào)的可能將進(jìn)一步凸顯華盛頓削減成本和增加支出之間脆弱的平衡。標(biāo)普(Standard and Poor's)曾表示，僅提高債務(wù)上限是不夠的。標(biāo)普已發(fā)出警告，除非國(guó)會(huì)能為至少節(jié)約4萬(wàn)億美元出臺(tái)“令人信服”的計(jì)劃，否則還會(huì)面臨降級(jí)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。然而，有人預(yù)計(jì)巨大的成本削減會(huì)對(duì)州政府和聯(lián)邦政府產(chǎn)生漣漪效應(yīng)。

????詹尼資本市場(chǎng)公司(Janney Capital Markets)的分析師在周二發(fā)布的評(píng)論中告訴客戶：“……從整體上來(lái)看，如果聯(lián)邦支出驟減，那么信用評(píng)級(jí)為Aa、A及其他評(píng)級(jí)的各州也會(huì)象征性地面臨財(cái)政問(wèn)題的挑戰(zhàn)。如果這些州注定逃不過(guò)降級(jí)的命運(yùn)，那么許多其他州和其他國(guó)家也會(huì)遭遇相同的處境?！?/p>

????評(píng)級(jí)下調(diào)對(duì)穆迪負(fù)面觀察名單上的這五個(gè)州產(chǎn)生的短期影響可能微乎其微。喬治梅森大學(xué)公共政策學(xué)院（George Mason University's public policy school）的西奧納?羅賓?李斯圖金教授表示，借貸成本將會(huì)上升，但漲幅不應(yīng)太過(guò)夸張。當(dāng)前，美國(guó)州級(jí)預(yù)算赤字面臨重壓，幾乎不容出現(xiàn)任何紕漏。在這種情況下，每年的利息成本不可能導(dǎo)致債務(wù)違約。

????但從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，評(píng)級(jí)下調(diào)可能會(huì)曝光大家都不愿接受的一個(gè)事實(shí)——這些州過(guò)分依賴(lài)聯(lián)邦撥款。

????“同樣，如果不出臺(tái)削減聯(lián)邦政府赤字的重大計(jì)劃，那么政府債務(wù)的上限問(wèn)題會(huì)加速評(píng)級(jí)下調(diào)的進(jìn)程，由此給這五個(gè)州帶來(lái)的級(jí)聯(lián)效應(yīng)會(huì)使投資者將關(guān)注投向此前暫時(shí)被擱置的結(jié)構(gòu)性財(cái)政問(wèn)題，比如職工退休金和醫(yī)療保健費(fèi)用等問(wèn)題。

????Tensions are boiling over in Washington as U.S. lawmakers negotiate a plan to raise the $14.3 trillion debt limit. With an Aug. 2 deadline fast approaching, the U.S. government is nowhere close to forging a deal -- an impasse that puts its impeccable triple-A rating at risk.

????A downgrade would be bad news for the overall economy on various levels. Much attention has focused on how it could impact consumers: Interest rates for U.S. Treasury bonds would rise, which would lead to higher borrowing costs for everything from home mortgages to car and school loans. And with a fragile economy still slowly recovering from a deep recession, such shocks to the market could send the U.S. back into a downturn.

????What has been less talked about is what a downgrade would mean to individual states.

????Last week, Moody's Investor Services placed Maryland, New Mexico, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia under watch for a possible downgrade. The five are among the 15 states currently with stellar triple-A credit ratings. Moody's placed the group of five under watch because of their relatively large exposure to federal funding – from Medicaid payments to government contracts and the like. And any deal to raise the debt ceiling will likely include spending cuts.

????Ironically enough, a majority of these states (South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia) are considered red states, where residents predominantly vote Republican – the party that's been urging budgetary cuts in everything from health care to Social Security. In listing South Carolina, Moody's (MCO) factored the state's vulnerability to federal contracts and Medicaid payments. In Tennessee and Virginia, the economies are heavily dependent on federal government jobs.

????The ratings agency says it would review the states on a case-by-case basis if the U.S. lost its triple-A rating. However things work out, the Moody's alert shouldn't be taken as a sign that local officials can't get its finances right. For instance, Virginia recently posted a budget surplus for the second consecutive year. And unlike the federal government -- which has the power to print money and pressures to enact policies that encourage employment and a strong economy -- virtually all states must balance their budgets.

????Many Wall Street bankers say they still believe a default would be avoided. However, it's less certain what the overall effects might be of a downgrade – either at the federal, state or local levels.

????If anything, the likelihood of downgrades at the state level underscores Washington's delicate balance between cost cutting and additional spending. Standard and Poor's has said that just raising the debt ceiling isn't enough. The country's credit rating might still be downgraded, the agency has warned, unless Congress comes up with a "credible" plan for at least $4 trillion in savings. And yet, some expect that too much cost cutting could cause a ripple effect across local and state governments.

????"… It is also symbolic of the bigger picture in that states and communities with Aa, A and other ratings will also be exposed to fiscal challenges should federal expenditures decline dramatically," analysts at Janney Capital Markets told clients in a note released Tuesday. "If the ratings of these states were to ultimately be downgraded, so too would the rating of many other states, as well as counties and communities."

????In the short-run, a downgrade for the five states that Moody's has listed could be minimal. Siona Robin Listokin, professor at George Mason University's public policy school, says borrowing costs would rise but this shouldn't be too dramatic. And while state budgets are under pressure these days and have little room for error, the annual interest costs aren't likely to tip them into default.

????But over time, a downgrade could put an unwanted spotlight on the fact that these states are overwhelmingly reliant on federal funding.

????"In the same way that the federal debt ceiling could speed up ratings downgrades without a major federal deficit reduction plan, the cascade effect to these five states could focus investor attention on structural financial difficulties that have been on the back burner for a time, like state employee pension and health care costs."